Mark Ingram: Buy, Sell or Hold?

Bruce Matson Posted On November 17, 2017

The trade deadline is almost here for most dynasty leagues. This usually sparks a flurry of activity on the trade market. Older productive players and drafts picks tend to be the currency that’s used most during this time of year. Mark Ingram, running back for the New Orleans Saints, is a veteran player who is currently producing at a high level. With his recent production, he could potentially deliver a high return on the trade market.

The teams that are trying to make a run for the playoffs are looking to boost their weekly lineups and the teams that are out of playoff contention are trying to sell their depreciating assets to build for the future. A player like Ingram could help both types of fantasy owners because he appeals to both win-now and rebuilding teams on the trade market.

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Ingram rushed for 3,261 yards and 13 touchdowns during his three-year career at Alabama. In 2009 he won the Heisman Memorial Trophy and was a Consensus All-American. During the combine, he weighed in at 215 pounds while running a 4.62 40-yard dash. He also ran a 7.13 three cone. Ingram’s athletic metrics measured well below average during the combine, but that didn’t derail his draft stock.

In the 2011 NFL Draft, the New Orleans Saints selected Ingram with the 28th pick in the first round, making him the first running back selected in the draft. His career started off slow – he rushed for 1,462 yards and 11 touchdowns during the first three years. He broke out in 2014, rushing for 964 yards and nine touchdowns in just 13 games. Ingram’s best season was in 2016, when he finished the year ranked eighth amongst running backs with 243.70 PPR fantasy points.

He’s currently on pace to finish as a top ten back in fantasy this year. He has scored double digit fantasy points in eight of nine games while averaging 17.04 PPR fantasy points per contest. His best game of the season was in week ten against the Buffalo Bills where he rushed for 131 yards and three touchdowns. This accumulated 31.10 fantasy points. He’s had 21 or more touches in four of his last five games.

*Fantasy playoff weeks are highlighted in green

Ingram’s strength of schedule could help fantasy owners win leagues down the stretch. From here on out, he faces only one top ten defense and that game will be played at home against the Carolina Panthers. He will also get the chance to play the Falcons twice during the fantasy playoffs who currently rank 19th in the league with 113.7 rushing yards allowed per game. Ingram’s playoff schedule should be a selling point in trade negations right now. Teams that are making a playoff run should be very interested in Ingram’s services.

There was plenty of room for Zack Morris and A.C. Slater to be key contributors on the show Saved by the Bell, and there’s plenty of workload in the Saints offense to make both Mark Ingram and Alvin Kamara fantasy relevant on a weekly basis. In the last five games, Ingram has averaged 23.6 touches per game while Kamara has averaged 14.2 touches per game. There’s plenty of volume within the Saints offense for both players to put up high-end fantasy numbers. Unless an injury occurs to either running back, the Saint’s backfield will be a devastating one-two punch for the rest of the year.

Ingram’s historical dynasty ADP has seen a lot of ups and downs in the last two years. He jumped 34 spots in the rankings from July of 2017 until now. Since we are nearing the trade deadline and the fantasy playoffs, his value in dynasty is starting to peak. He posted an ADP of 50 for November and that should only increase going forward. His value should regress to the mean during the off-season due to the fact that a large market share of dynasty owners like to build around younger players during their startup drafts. This means the time to sell Ingram is now.

Win-Now Teams

He has the potential to be an integral part of a championship run in dynasty. There are not many running backs in the league who have an easier schedule than Ingram down the stretch. Combine that with his workload, and you have a player that can get your dynasty team over the hump. The main goal in all fantasy leagues is to win money, and I’m not opposed to an owner selling away some of their drafts picks to strengthen their lineup for the fantasy playoffs. He’s an obvious hold if you own him, because he’s going to be a key piece to your playoff run in the near future.

Rebuilding Teams

Rebuilding teams need to take advantage of his sudden influx in value, because I doubt his dynasty value will ever be this high ever again. Next year, he will account for just $1.645 million in dead cap space for the Saints which means there’s a possibility he could get cut in the off-season. He will be 28 years old next season and he might be out of the league by the time your team is ready to compete.

Next year’s draft is going to be stacked with talent at the running back position which will dilute some of Ingram’s dynasty value. I can see contending teams easily spending first round draft picks to acquire him for their playoff runs. Start shopping him now, because you are not going to fetch the same value for him six months from now.

By using DLF’s Trade Finder you will find numerous trades involving Ingram. These trades can serve as a benchmark for future trade negations. There are multiple deals with Ingram being traded for a first round pick. He’s also been traded straight-up for Tevin Coleman and Tyrell Williams and was dealt straight-up for DeVante Parker. Again, these are benchmarks for trade negations and don’t be surprised if you receive a different outcome when you try to deal or trade for Ingram.

I’ve always been a fan of Ingram, but I’m not going to be afraid to sell if I’m able to get a draft pick or a solid young prospect in return to help rebuild my team for the future. I do have him rostered on some teams that are competing for a title and I’m not going to sell him unless it’s for a windfall of talent. He’s going to be a key contributor to a lot of championship teams this year.

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Bruce Matson

Contributor at Dynasty League Football

I'm a financial counselor for a hospital in South Central Ohio. I graduated from Muskingum University with a bachelor's in business while minoring in Economics and Accounting. I won my first fantasy football title with Jake Plummer as my quarterback.