Sunday Morning Huddle: Week Ten

Let’s face it. There’s an enormous amount of information out there on Sunday mornings. We’re not going to waste your time by repeating the news and notes about who’s in or out this week, since that’s really not what you visit us for. We’re also not going to do another article on starts or sits this week. We already have the personalized lineup advice for you on the premium content. Again, there are 100 places you can go for that, so no reason to repeat ourselves or others.

The Sunday Morning Huddle goes through each game and states what we’re looking to see from a dynasty perspective. One player will be picked from each team who has dynasty value tied to the game – players at a pivot point where their value could increase or decrease based on opportunity and performance.

Accountability Corner

As something new, I want to add some accountability to my calls that I make each week in this column. I don’t have a good way of defining whether a player’s value truly went up or down in a given week yet, so the results I am listing are based on my personal opinion. For example. Tyreek Hill had a decent fantasy week but he did it on just two receptions. Due to that, I’m leaving him as a value even with inconsistency concerns..

Total hit percent for Week 9: 54.2%

[am4show have=’g1;’ guest_error=’sub_message’ user_error=’sub_message’ ]

EARLY GAMES

New Orleans at Buffalo

The addition of Alvin Kamara appears to be what really led to Brandin Cooks being expendable. This offense looks different with him in it, and for the better. Getting as many targets as a fantasy WR2, he is taking pressure off of Drew Brees from having to carry a downfield passing attack. Against Buffalo, his ceiling is as high as anyone’s. The sky could be the limit for his value over the next year or two.

Out for a while with injury, Charles Clay appears set to return today and his per game output this year has been phenomenal. Recency bias and injury concerns may be hampering his value in your leagues, so keep an eye on him. He could be getting a value increase as a large part of this offense down the stretch.

Green Bay at Chicago

Last week I went with a value down for Aaron Jones, and he disappointed his owners. I have the same concern for him moving forward. His performance out of the gate was strong and the community overreacted. Any struggles he has now will leave question marks about his role upon Aaron Rodgers’ return. I’m monitoring this closely, but I think he struggles again.

The Packers have been weak against running backs, and Jordan Howard has been a workhorse this season. With the Packers offense struggling in general, this has the feel of a game where Howard may grind them into submission. Since it is Green Bay, people will certainly pay more attention so I am going with a value up prediction for him.

Cincinnati at Tennessee

I’m not sure how AJ Green avoided suspension for choking and punching an opponent, but I won’t complain. Ceiling games tend to have a positive effect on player value, and I am thinking this game smells like a bounce back for Green. He had a rough week last week, and inconsistency isn’t typically an issue for him. Add in that the Titans aren’t really stopping anyone, and it’s a recipe for success.

The Bengals are actually pretty good at slowing down receivers, which is why I’m taking a long shot on a value up for Corey Davis. Injured through most of the season, he is still good at football and has gotten targets when he plays. My theory here is that Cincinnati doesn’t cover him as they should and he breaks out.

Cleveland at Detroit

Quietly, because he hasn’t done much with the opportunity, David Njoku is getting a lot of looks. Averaging over five targets per game in the three weeks before the bye, he suddenly is primed for an explosion. Call this one a hunch, but Detroit can be prone to tight ends and Njoku is a good prospect. I’m banking on him not staying this low on output with this opportunity.

The Browns are awful at defending tight ends. Eric Ebron is terrible at producing meaningful fantasy statistics as a tight end. This is a rock meets hard place kind of situation. Either Ebron finally does something, or the Browns finally slow down a tight end. I’m going out on a limb once again and predicting that the Browns keep Ebron’s output low, and dynasty owners bail.

Pittsburgh at Indianapolis

Ben Roethlisberger and the Steelers passing offense is an enigma to me. Propping up Antonio Brown and one of the game’s elite rushing/receiving backs in Le’Veon Bell, and now including the ascent of JuJu Smith-Schuster, Ben somehow has really low fantasy points this year. There is a disconnect occurring, and the Colts are a great bounceback spot for him.

The longer that the Colts are both bad and Jack Doyle continues to produce, the higher his value should climb. Pittsburgh isn’t giving up much fantasy production to anyone, and the Colts aren’t playing very good football. Doyle is the main consistent spot here and that goes a long way for player evaluation.

Los Angeles Chargers at Jacksonville

Melvin Gordon has been banged up for a while but still put up meaningful fantasy points for his owners. Now fresh off of a bye week and going up against a Jaguars defense susceptible to running backs, he could put on a show. He still has plenty of haters so his value can continue to grow.

Another enigma that has been puzzling me is Marqise Lee’s value. He has double digit fantasy points for three weeks running, has been a central figure in the team’s offense dating back to last season, and has generally been a fine asset. Still, his value is low. Why? I don’t know, but if he keeps doing this his value can’t really move down, so I’ll vote for up.

Minnesota at Washington

We all know Case Keenum will get yanked eventually for Teddy Bridgewater. On the other hand, he hasn’t looked too bad as a game manager this year. He also looked decent with the Rams in the past. He will be a free agent after 2017, and as long as he doesn’t face plant he may be able to find a starting role on a bad team in 2018.

Another week, another chance for Kirk Cousins to prove he can work with the weapons around him. Lately I am just not feeling it from him, and it could negatively impact his ability to find work for another team. The 49ers are presumably out of the mix with the Garropolo trade, and his asking price may be higher than anyone but Washington will pay him. But then – he can’t produce this season with the weapons he has there. So where does that leave us with him?

New York Jets at Tampa Bay Buccaneers

There is a theme for the Jets this year for me. If Matt Forte is out, write about Bilal Powell because he is actually a good football player that just doesn’t get enough opportunity. This week is no different, and the Buccaneers are exploitable by running backs. The question for me is whether he can parlay the opportunity he does get into a bigger role on the Jets moving forward, or on another team eventually.

This week must be the week for me to go on hunches. No Mike Evans? How about OJ Howard as the beneficiary? I have a hard time seeing someone not already being groomed for and involved in the offense getting a big bump, but Howard could make a big leap with a heavy workload here.

LATE GAMES

Houston at Los Angeles Rams

OK. I get it. The dynasty community already loves DeAndre Hopkins. But he just scored over 20 points with Tom Savage at quarterback. Tom Savage, folks. This man is a stud and the more he can do with subpar quarterback play, the higher people will be on him when the prodigal son – Deshaun Watson – returns.

I just wrote about Todd Gurley last week, but he is about to play against a murderer’s row. He doesn’t have a single ‘easy’ matchup between now and week 17. So, while I don’t plan on writing about him each week, I do want to go on record to say that this is an excellent opportunity to evaluate him as a future player. He can clearly produce even in unfavorable conditions – but can he do it consistently?

Dallas at Atlanta

So we are all aboard with Dak Prescott being a stud, right? Great. Now, what does he do without Ezekiel Elliot in the backfield? It is honestly that simple for me. If he can maintain his elite level of play with less elite backfield play, he is a quarterback to target moving forward.

Here is another simple one, I like trendspotting. Austin Hooper has six targets in two straight games. If he makes that three straight games, it is a trend and one to keep an eye on for a faltering offense in need of a spark. Can he be that spark?

New York Giants at San Francisco

Here is one I probably should have written about sooner, but I’ve been smitten with Evan Engram. Hopefully you’ll forgive me due to your infatuation matching mine. Orleans Darkwa has relatively quietly been the running back to own from the Giants, and that could lead to an increased opportunity coming out of the bye. Against the 49ers, we’ll take a stab at that.

The 49ers don’t have a lot of guys to choose from with an imminent quarterback change looming. That makes the guy to watch the quarterback likely to lose his job soon in CJ Beathard. If he can prove he belongs in the time he has left, he may keep some value moving forward, but odds are he is toast for the foreseeable future.

SUNDAY NIGHT

New England at Denver

Rob Gronkowski has had a long and tenuous time atop the dynasty tight end rankings, between his elite production and lengthy injury history. This week, though, he is healthy and gets to go up against a Broncos defense that either cannot or will not defend tight ends. This feels like a ceiling game opportunity.

Everything I just wrote is also true about AJ Derby, except for most of it. The point is – the Patriots are equally unlikely to actually defend a tight end, having given up a boat load of touchdowns to the position this season. I know I’ve written about Derby a lot lately. My heart is on my sleeve, if it doesn’t happen this week I’ll stop.

MONDAY NIGHT

Miami at Carolina

He didn’t operate like a feature back by any stretch, but Kenyan Drake did look like the more explosive component in the Dolphins backfield last week. The Carolina defense is stout, so we should continue to monitor this situation to see where the value lies – if with anyone at all. The team could trade for or draft a running back this offseason. More explosive plays will keep him in the mix long term.

Last week I made the call that Russell Shepard would get a value up with Kelvin Benjamin gone, and I appear to have been wrong. The team made a much more concerted effort to get the ball into Curtis Samuel’s hands. While he isn’t blowing anyone away with the results, he is at least involved in the game now. With three straight games of increasing involvement, it’s time to acknowledge his growing role on offense.

RECAP

[/am4show]

• Author
• Recent Posts

Trevor Bucher

Writer at Dynasty League Football

Trevor is a Florida State and Ball State alumnus with degrees in Asian Studies and History. He forecasts service part demand for the auto industry and moonlights as a dynasty aficionado. His takes on fantasy are typically rooted in statistics, history, and metrics, but he is open to the occasional gut feeling. You can follow him @evorzan for tweets about football and the occasional video game or anime reference.

Latest posts by Trevor Bucher (see all)

• Sunday Morning Huddle: Week 15 - December 17, 2017
• Sunday Morning Huddle: Week 14 - December 10, 2017
• Sunday Morning Huddle: Week 13 - December 3, 2017