Josh Gordon: Buy, Sell or Hold?
I guess good things come to those who wait, because it feels like we’ve been waiting for an eternity to see Josh Gordon on the football field again. Soon our dreams will become a reality. Gordon was conditionally reinstated last week and will be eligible to start practicing with the Browns on November 20th. He is on pace to play his first game on week 13 against the Los Angeles Chargers. That’s less than a month away. There are some dynasty owners who had Gordon stashed away on the back end of their rosters for the last three years waiting for him to finally get reinstated, and it appears those owners might get the opportunity to have a highly sought-after asset re-emerge as a key component to their roster construction.
Without a doubt, his trade value is going to substantially increase. The closer we get to him hitting the football field, the harder it will be to pry him away from his current owners. Even with the recent news, there’s still a small buying opportunity to try and obtain him on the cheap in the next couple of weeks.
[am4show have=’g1;’ guest_error=’sub_message’ user_error=’sub_message’ ]
Gordon caught 43 passes for 714 yards and seven touchdowns during his two-year collegiate career with the Baylor Bears. During his sophomore season, in 2010, he was found asleep with teammate Willie Jefferson in a car at a local Taco Bell. When police arrived at the scene they found marijuana in Jefferson’s car. From this incident, Gordon received his first suspension while Jefferson was kicked off the team. In less than a year, Gordon was suspended indefinitely for testing positive for marijuana on a drug test. In 2011, He transferred to Utah where he practiced with the team while sitting out the entire season. The following year he entered the 2012 Supplemental Draft where he was selected in the second round by the Cleveland Browns.
In his first season with the Browns, he caught 50 passes for 805 yards and five touchdowns, making him one of the most impressive rookies during the 2012 season. During the off-season, Gordon failed his first NFL drug test which violated the league’s substance-abuse policy and was forced to miss the first two games of the season.
His 2013 season was a magical experience for all football fans, as Gordon had one of the most memorable seasons ever, catching 87 passes for 1,646 yards and nine touchdowns. In that season, he became the first receiver to produce back to back 200-yard games and he also made a Pro Bowl appearance.
Unfortunately, Gordon experienced another setback in the off-season when he drew his second suspension for violating the league’s substance-abuse policy. The NFL originally granted him a year-long suspension, but he had it reduced to ten games. He was later reinstated and returned to the team to make his season debut in week 12 against the Atlanta Falcons where he exploded for eight receptions for 120 yards. During his 2014 campaign, he played in five games, catching 24 passes for 303 yards and zero touchdowns.
Things went downhill during the off-season again when he failed another drug test, causing him to face his second year-long suspension. Gordon tried to apply for reinstatement after completing it on April 12, 2016, but was denied due to another failed drug test. After attending rehab and staying away from the public eye, Gordon was finally conditionally reinstated on November 1, 2017.
As you can tell from Gordon’s historical ADP comparison chart, his dynasty value has been quite volatile in the last two years with his value reaching its highest in February of 2016 with an ADP of 25.17. His value reached its lowest point in July of 2017 when his value bottomed out with a 216 ADP. Gordon’s value is currently on the upswing, with his current ADP being slotted at 106.25 – the highest it has been since September of 2016. Expect his value to continue to trend upward. The closer we get to him actually getting on the field, the more he will be valued amongst fantasy football enthusiasts. I wouldn’t be surprised if his ADP climbs to the 70-80 range within the next month, and his value will skyrocket if he finishes the season on a positive note.
Buyers
If you haven’t already acquired him on the cheap months ago, now is the time to make the decision on whether you are going to dip your toe in the water and purchase some of his stock. Owners should be aggressive and send out trade offers as soon as possible before his asking price escalates to unobtainable proportions. Your initial offers should consist of players and picks that are worth around the 100 ADP range.
Sellers
Unless you get an offer you can’t refuse, hold him for a few weeks, because his value is going to increase in the near future and it’s better to capitalize when his value has almost peaked compared to when it’s currently on the rise. The closer we get to him actually suiting up and playing, the more admired he will be by other dynasty owners. The only way his value slips between now and week 13 is if he fails another drug test. With that being said, his trade value should remain the same or increase, so you might as well hold for a few weeks to see if you can cash out at a higher price point.
Playing It Safe
The antifragility move would be to completely eschew the headache and risk by avoiding him all together. His long-detailed history combined with him not playing a snap in almost three years makes him a very dangerous asset. I can’t blame anyone for wanting to completely avoid him at all costs. There’s a chance that Gordon flops and becomes a meaningless asset in fantasy. By completely avoiding him, you will not risk him bottoming out on your dynasty team.
Win-Now Teams
He might be worth selling for a player that could strengthen your lineup if you need to make a run for the playoffs. Sometimes you have to push-in some of your chips to try and win some money, and Gordon’s rise in value could be enough to net you a player that could get your team over the hump. I suggest holding him if you don’t need an extra piece to help increase your odds at making the playoffs. It’s not outside the realm of possibilities that he becomes a key component to your championship run when he gets the chance to play in a few weeks.
Rebuilding Teams
He’s worth the risk for a rebuilding, because he can instantly turn your franchise around if he can revert to his old form. Gordon could easily be a top ten wide receiver in dynasty if he hits and produces like he did in 2013. I recommend dealing away one of your older declining players since they won’t be a key part of your team in the near future.
By utilizing DLF’s Dynasty Trade Finder we can see numerous dynasty trades involving Gordon to see how he’s being valued in other dynasty leagues. One of the trades listed involves Gordon being traded straight up for Curtis Samuel and a 2018 second round pick. Another trade has him traded for Jamaal Williams, and a third trade has him being traded for LeGarrette Blount and Matt Breida. Owners seem to be valuing him all over the place and it might be worth shooting over an offer to see if you can acquire him on the cheap.
Gordon is a very intriguing player due to him being a high risk, high reward investment. I’m definitely kicking the tires to see if I can acquire him on the cheap. I’m a believer in his talents, but he’s too risky to over pay for. It’s going to be hard to pry him away from owners who held him on their rosters for the last three years, because they’ve already consumed all the risk and they won’t be willing to sell unless they’re netting a significant profit. Sending out trade offers is a lot like asking a girl out to the prom. The worst thing that could happen is that she says no, but if you don’t ask you will never get a chance to take her to the dance. I’m sending out trade offers for Gordon and hopefully I get a “cheap” date to the prom.
[/am4show]
- Dynasty Fantasy Football Rookie Profile: Luke McCaffrey, WR Rice - April 19, 2024
- 2024 Dynasty Fantasy Football Rookie Profile: Will Shipley, RB Clemson - April 6, 2024
- 2024 Dynasty Fantasy Football Rookie Profile: Braelon Allen, RB Wisconsin - March 29, 2024
