FanDuel Bargains: Week Ten
Welcome back to the weekly FanDuel Value article. Every week (and into the post-season), I’ll be highlighting some of the best bargains on the best daily site in the industry, FanDuel.
We are concerned specifically with Grand Prize Pool (GPP) tournaments, which means these players offer higher upside and potentially lower floors. This week I’ve chosen to focus specifically on players who give you some cash relief to play higher priced players elsewhere in your lineup. Depending on how you construct your lineup their viability can change.
If you love playing daily fantasy football, remember you can get an Annual Subscription to DLF (a $29.99 value) by just signing up for FanDuel and depositing your initial $10 through this link.
Note: I use 4for4.com’s Adjusted Fantasy Points Allowed (aFPA) to determine defensive rankings and pro-football-reference.com to find raw stats. When referring to defensive efficiency metrics I’m using www.sharpfootballstats.com.
Quarterback
Ryan Fitzpatrick, TB ($6100)
Line: -2.5 TB
O/U: 43.5
OPP: NYJ
Ryan Fitzpatrick offers upside with a steady and sneaky rushing floor he’s had all career long (though he is currently averaging 13.3 per game this year.) Facing the 26th-weakest defense against his position according to aFPA, Fitzpatrick returns to New York replacing the injured Jameis Winston. I think he can easily break his QB26 cap hit. The Jets have been a lot better than people predicted this year, but they have also given up 9 touchdowns in the last three games. 8 of them have been passing touchdowns, and the other was a rushing touchdown to a quarterback.
Other Options: Matthew Stafford ($8200), Andy Dalton ($7100),
Running Back
Carlos Hyde, SF ($6700)
Line: -2.5
O/U: 42
OPP: NYG
Carlos Hyde has had 8, 9 and 11 targets in his last three games and has risen to a 23% target market share the last two weeks. He’s also carried the ball 15 times inside the 10-yard line (12 times inside the 5). Hyde is missing over 9 points in expected value on those carries (according to the average points produced on that type of volume in the last three years). This makes in a positive regression candidate. For context, his attempts inside the 10-yard line rank fourth in the NFL behind Le’Veon Bell, Todd Gurley and Ezekiel Elliott. His work inside the 5 ranks second behind only Gurley.
The 49ers are not a team you’d predict to have many trips to the red zone, but the Giants are a shambles right now. They rank 21st against the running back position, according to aFPA. Carlos Hyde’s current volume means he should see significant work no matter what the game script. Priced as the RB13 this week, he is not only an easy value but a high upside, high floor play.
Bilal Powell, NYJ ($6000)
Line: -2.5
O/U: 43.5
OPP: TB
It pays to stay up to date in DFS. Some of the best value plays happen an hour before kickoff. This one turned up late in the week as it became clear Matt Forte is injured and unlikely to play. That means Powell’s price has failed to account for the increase in volume he should receive. It’s a Bilal Powell week. He has seen significant volume every time Matt Forte has been out, both in the passing and running game. He faces the 26th-weakest run defense this week in a game that could go over its 43.5 total.
Other Options: Jordan Howard ($7200), Devonta Freeman ($6500)
Wide Receiver
Robby Anderson, NYJ ($6500)
Line: -2.5
O/U: 43.5
OPP: TB
Robby Anderson faces the second-best matchup for the wide receiver position, according to aFPA. He has only had double digit targets only once this year, which makes him a risky Cash play, but he has earned 22% of the team’s market share in the last two weeks. Priced as the WR18 this week, he has significant upside while also allowing you to fit in higher priced players around him. As an added incentive, he is also the second-most targeted player in the red zone on his team. He’s had an 18% target market share inside the 20, and 13% inside the 10.
Robert Woods, LAR ($6200)
Line: -11.5
O/U: 46
OPP: HOU
Robert Woods is priced as the WR25, and faces the 30th-ranked defense against wide receivers according to aFPA. He leads the rejuvenated Rams with 44 targets and a 19.7% target market share. The Texans defense has given up 9 touchdowns in the last three games. 2 were interceptions, and 7 were receiving touchdowns. Even before Deshaun Watson was injured, this was clearly a unit struggling after losing several of its key starters. Coming of a double digit touchdown game last week and into the third-highest game total, Woods offers a consistent number of targets from an improved Jared Goff.
Other Options; Mohamed Sanu ($5900), Adam Humphries ($4800),
Tight End
Garrett Celek, SF ($4500)
Line: -2.5
O/U: 42
OPP: NYG
The talent-deprived 49ers lost two tight ends last week, including promising rookie George Kittle who has already been ruled out for week ten. That leaves Garrett Celek the lone survivor and starting tight end against the best matchup for the position in football. The Giants are more than just a good positional matchup. Because of the way they have “constructed” their defense, they are historically weak against the position. They have given up at a touchdown to a tight end in every game this year and are on a nine game streak extending back into last season. That includes giving up a touchdown to Eric Ebron, Jeff Heuerman, Tyler Higbee and Jason Witten. Old, young, rarely targeted, good, bad – none of that has mattered. Priced as the TE46 on the week, he doesn’t have to do much to pay off his $4500 cap.
Other options: Austin Hooper ($4900), Kyle Rudolph ($5400)
UDFA's matter | British ex-pat | Writer of things
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