Dynasty Stock Market: November ADP Review

Welcome back to the Dynasty Stock Market, my favorite ongoing series to write and one I hope you gain value in reading. Speaking of value, that’s the primary topic of every edition of the Stock Market and understanding the always changing dynasty value of individual players will help you win your leagues.

With a brand new set of in-season dynasty ADP hitting the site recently, it’s time to dig in and see what we can learn from the data.

Let’s begin by simply checking out the top ten at each position, including rookies from our November dynasty ADP.

Quarterbacks

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The top tier of the quarterback position has really been shaken up with the breakout seasons of Carson Wentz, Deshaun Watson and Dak Prescott. Wentz and Watson have already bypassed off-season darlings Jameis Winston and Marcus Mariota, both of whom are struggling. I’m actually surprised Prescott, the current QB4, didn’t join them.

Despite the season-ending injuries to Aaron Rodgers and Andrew Luck, they both retain their spot in the top five, though I see that changing in the coming weeks, especially in Luck’s case, given the rumors of long-term concerns due to his shoulder injury. As it currently stands, a case can be made for Rodgers, Russell Wilson, Wentz, Watson or Prescott to be selected as the top quarterback off the board in dynasty startup drafts.

Running Backs

Although it feels like there has also been some major changes among the top running backs as well, the “big three” of Le’Veon Bell, David Johnson and Ezekiel Elliott remain the top three players selected in recent dynasty mock drafts. Of course, the change is the growth of the top tier, with Todd Gurley, Melvin Gordon, Devonta Freeman, Leonard Fournette and Kareem Hunt all closing the gap and coming off the board in the top 20 overall. Again, I’m surprised to see Gordon and Freeman maintain their position ahead of the impressive rookies and expect that to change with our next set of data.

The gap between the top eight backs and the final two, rookies Dalvin Cook and Joe Mixon, is notable and shows a clear top tier of eight. This allows for some massive changes after Hunt in upcoming weeks and months. Now that Elliott will actually begin serving his long-discussed suspension, we could see his value drop and maybe Gurley surpasses him.

Wide Receivers

I thought the long streak of Giants receiver Odell Beckham being drafted as the top overall player would be in danger and surely enough, the season-ending ankle injury to OBJ allowed Bucs receiver Mike Evans to tie for the top spot in our overall ADP. The rise for Texans receiver DeAndre Hopkins from fringe first-rounder to the third overall player in just one month is a huge leap, though with his quarterback Deshaun Watson now on the shelf for the remainder of the season, some of the shine has come off. Veterans Antonio Brown, Julio Jones and AJ green remain solid top ten options, but I could easily see one of them falling during this off-season, with Green being the likely target.

Although he is obviously one of my personal favorite players to support and roster in dynasty leagues, I am still shocked to see Oakland’s Amari Cooper resting above Jones, Green and others, considering he has just two solid performances this entire season. I still consider Cooper a buy low, but if this ADP is any indication, there may not be much of a discount to find.

Michael Thomas, Stefon Diggs and Keenan Allen, all lumped into the “young receiver” category, are having solid yet unspectacular seasons. If any of the three can get on a hot streak, as Diggs did to begin the season, they could leap into the top five receivers and cement themselves as first-rounders in startup drafts.

Tight Ends

The tight end position is the one that has remained relatively unchanged at the top since the off-season, with Rob Gronkowski and Travis Kelce holding down their spots as the top two players. The elite production has come from the Eagles Zach Ertz though, who has finished among the top 12 fantasy tight ends in every game he played this season – the only player to do that at any position.

Injuries have wrecked the second tier of tight ends, with Tyler Eifert, Greg Olsen, and Jordan Reed missing time. In Eifert’s case, a season-ending back surgery was enough to push him out of the ten, killing his dynasty value. The other vets remain on this list, but have fallen behind productive youngsters like Evan Engram, Hunter Henry and David Njoku. While Reed, Olsen and Eifert could regain some value, it is difficult to ever see them climbing back into the top five.

Rookies

There were some very interesting developments among the top-drafted rookies. With Titans receiver Corey Davis missing the majority of the season so far, he’s fallen down the board, while high-scoring backs Fournette, Hunt and Cook make up the top three. Fournette and Cook have missed time with injuries (and a one-game suspension in Fournette’s case) and Hunt has slowed his early-season record pace, so there is room for more change at the top moving forward.

The most productive players in recent weeks have gained some value and now reside at the end of this list. Saints pass-catching back Alvin Kamara is pushing top tier of rookie backs and some are even ranking him among the top 12 overall runners, myself included. Juju Smith-Schuster has overtaken a troubled Martavis Bryant and is producing much earlier than anyone expected. As the youngest player in the league, dynasty owners can’t resist his upside. Engram is currently valued as the TE4 in dynasty, but that lofty rank is barely good enough for a top ten spot in this stacked rookie class. Finally, Watson has been one of the top stories of the 2017 season, but will now miss the remainder of the season after suffering a torn ACL.

Risers

The Packers backfield has been frustrating for fantasy players as running back Ty Montgomery started strong before suffering an injury and losing his job, at least temporarily to surprising rookie Aaron Jones, the top riser in our November ADP data. By the time the mock drafts had completed, Jones and Montgomery were mired in a full-blown running back by committee, damaging the value of both players.

Jerick McKinnon has stepped in for the injured starter Cook in Minnesota and has payed easily the best football of his career. His future and therefore, his long-term dynasty value, is up in the air considering he will be a free agent following the season, but McKinnon might be earning himself a nice new contract from some team. He’s a low-end RB1 in the season’s final two months.

Josh Gordon has been conditionally reinstated and that is all we needed for dynasty owners to fall in love all over again. In fact, at the time of these drafts, all we had to go on were rumors of possible meetings. If and when Gordon steps onto an NFL field again, his dynasty value will skyrocket. I consider him a must-sell at this time.

The Panthers, after this data collection process, dealt away receiver Kelvin Benjamin, which will only aide the value of Devin Funchess, who is enjoying a breakout season. He’s the top receiver on the team and has been more reliable than ever before, which isn’t saying all that much.

Dede Westbrook is an interesting case as he has yet to play in the NFL as a rookie who landed on the injured reserve list in the pre-season. Westbrook had a spectacular college career, but has a history of injuries and off-field issues. I am starting to think this is setting up to be a major disappointment for dynasty players. I wouldn’t mind flipping any Westbrook shares for a future second-round rookie pick.

The list of risers predictably wraps up with three breakout stars of the 2017 season, Wentz, Watson and Texans receiver Will Fuller, who is now set to lose value thanks to the Watson injury.

Fallers

Even before the recent news of his release from the Packers (and subsequent signing by the Patriots) tight end Martellus Bennett was one of the most disappointing players in all of fantasy football this season. While some will blame that on the injury to his now former quarterback Rodgers, Bennett was not producing even before that. Already announcing the possibility of his retirement following this season, Bennett has the chance to end his career on a high note with the defending Super Bowl champions.

We see both Wendell Smallwood and LeGarrette Blount on this list, which is a direct result of the Eagles addition of former Dolphin running back Jay Ajayi, whom they acquired at the trade deadline. This will likely remain a committee attack, but Blount and Smallwood simply aren’t that good and now have major competition for touches and snaps.

The former Jets teammates, receiver Brandon Marshall and Eric Decker, both make the list. Of course, Marshall is out for the season with an ankle injury, while Decker simply isn’t getting the job done in the run heavy Titans offense. It can be argued that neither player is even worthy of a roster spot in the typical dynasty league.

Two of the biggest busts of the season are free agent signees Mike Gillislee of the Patriots and the Redskins receiver Terrelle Pryor. There’s not much to say about this pair other than they simply have not been a good fit with their new teams. Each have been bypassed for playing time by average talents and their dynasty value is fizzling as a result.

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Ryan McDowell

Contributor at Dynasty League Football

In addition to his senior leadership role here at DLF, Ryan is also a husband, father of three and PE teacher. Ryan is the commissioner of multiple dynasty leagues, most notably the Kitchen Sink Dynasty Leagues. Here at DLF, Ryan’s focus is on identifying, monitoring and analyzing player value.

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