2017 Rookie Draft Redo: Round Three

Jacob Feldman

November has arrived! Pro Basketball is back, congratulations to Houston as the new World Series Champions, and the NFL season has reached its halfway point. With the NFL season halfway, I sure hope you know if your team is a serious contender or just a pretender for this season. If you don’t know, you better sit down to do some serious and honest calculations to figure it out!

Once you have decided what you are, I suggest you hit the trading block and make the most out of what you have. In order to help you out, we are here with one last look back at the rookie class of 2017. I gathered 11 other DLF writers and we decided to do one more rookie mock draft with this year’s draft class just to see how things have changed. After all, we all know there are a lot of things to consider. How far up boards has Kareem Hunt risen? How much does Dalvin Cook’s injury hurt him? How do the big three tight ends stack up against each other now? Hopefully we can help!

For this mock, we worked under the assumption that it was PPR scoring, starting one quarterback, and that all drafters had a team without any glaring holes. We also ignored previous picks, so you might (and someone did) draft a quarterback in each round if you felt they were the best value available. Once the picks were made, I emailed each drafter a question about one of their three selections. Their responses will be included below. The draft was conducted between weeks eight and nine, so no week nine results, injuries, or headlines are included in this.

If you missed the first round or the second round, you should go take a look.

Lets dive into the third and final round of the mock draft.

First Four Picks of the Third

3.01 – Mitchell Trubisky, QB CHI

3.02 – Chris Godwin, WR TB

3.03 – Chris Carson, RB SEA

3.04 – Samaje Perine, RB WAS

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As our draft entered the third round, one thing become abundantly clear to me. Even though we thought this was a really deep draft, the number of rookies who have actually shown enough to get me really excited isn’t as large as I expected. There are a few players in the third who I would be interested in, but there are several of them I think I would probably leave on the waiver wire in a lot of my leagues where I’m contending. I think this is actually pretty typical for draft classes, which is just another reminder to not go too overboard on rookies in the off-season. I like the first few picks, but after that it seems to drop off quickly. Let’s take a look.

The third round of our rookie mock started with the first quarterback off the board in the NFL Draft. He was the third quarterback drafted in this mock by a narrow margin, which was a common place for him this off-season. I like Trubisky in leagues where I have an aging star like Drew Brees or Tom Brady. We can expect a few more seasons from the future hall of famers, and by then, maybe Trubisky will be ready to push into the back end of the QB1 ranks. Maybe he will follow in the footsteps of last year’s rookie quarterbacks, Jared Goff and Carson Wentz, and he will come out on fire during his sophomore season. He is worth picking up as a third round pick.

Godwin is a player I really liked this off-season, but the hype became a little bit too much. Now that he is spending most of his Sunday sitting on the bench, the price has come down to a range I am comfortable with once more. I think he has a future as a starting receiver for the Bucs, and I’m definitely looking to buy him right now for a third round pick. He seemed to impress the coaching staff and media alike this summer with some of his play in OTAs and training camp. He’s just not going to see the field a lot with Mike Evans and DeSean Jackson ahead of him. The light at the end of the tunnel is that Jackson is on the wrong side of 30, and receivers who rely on speed normally don’t make it much past that point. Godwin’s time is coming, and he makes for a great buy for a patient owner.

One of the more interesting picks in this round is the selection of Chris Carson with the third pick in the round. The almost Mr. Irrelevant, Carson seemed to be the favorite of the Seattle coaching staff, a group which his shown draft capital doesn’t matter. However, injury has derailed his rookie year. I asked Nick to go into depth on what he expects out of Carson, and here are his thoughts:

“There’s a wide range of outcomes when considering Chris Carson’s future. On one hand, his low draft capital could make him expendable after a long injury, while the Seattle address the running back position via the draft or free agency, all the meanwhile Seattle’s offensive line continues to struggle with the run. This would leave Carson with a backup role at best, complete fantasy irrelevance at worst. On the other hand, the current Seattle backfield has shown little to deserve more chances going forward, and Seattle could provide Carson with a significant role in 2018 with an improved offensive line. This could mean a timeshare at worst, but a best-case outcome of becoming the clear lead back.

However, at the price of only a third round pick, I’m willing to take what we saw of Carson in limited appearances as a signal of a high ceiling, especially if Seattle fixes the offensive line. I don’t think many other players taken in his range in the mock have demonstrated as much talent as Carson has, and almost everybody drafted at that point has low draft capital anyway. I think Carson stands as good a chance as any other late round flyer to produce in 2018 and beyond.”

The fourth pick of the round brings us to one of the biggest fallers of this draft, Samaje Perine. At one point, Perine was a fixture in the middle or late first round of rookie drafts. The running back who quietly out produced his college teammate Joe Mixon at times while at Oklahoma was a very polarizing figure this off-season. As a rookie, he has shown ball security issues, very little burst, and a limited skill set in the passing game.

It has definitely been a very disappointing year, but if his price is truly a third round pick, I think I’m actually interested in buying him. It hurts a little bit to say that, but there were reasons so many of us liked him as a fringe first round pick. Maybe he is just having a hard time adjusting to the NFL, especially behind a below average run blocking offensive line. For a third, it just might be worth a shot.

Middle of the Third

3.05 – Amara Darboh, WR SEA

3.06 – Mack Hollins, WR PHI

3.07 – George Kittle, TE SF

3.08 – DeShone Kizer, QB CLE

This is the point where my level of excitement really took a nose dive. I’m not overly thrilled about most of the picks over the last eight selections of this draft, but I can’t be too harsh because there really weren’t many better options. Our drafters had to take someone after all!

With that said, Darboh was one of my least favorite picks of the round. I wasn’t a huge fan of his this off-season, and he really hasn’t done much for the Seahawks. Granted, their passing game is a little bit different from a lot of the other offenses in the league, but I feel like he had a golden opportunity to grab a share of the snaps this year, especially after Jermaine Kearse was traded.

Doug Baldwin is of course locked in at the top, but the rest of the group were either struggling or injured for a part of this season. Even with that, Darboh seems to be fifth on the depth chart at the position. He really hasn’t shown me much of anything, and he has actually been on the waiver wire almost all season in two of my leagues.

Hollins is a player who has become more and more interesting to me as the season has progressed. It actually has nothing to do with what Hollins has done, because he has really been a fringe player. The reason I’m more interested is because Carson Wentz has turned the Eagles into a top offense in the NFL. It wouldn’t surprise me if the Eagles cut Torrey Smith after this year since it doesn’t have any guaranteed money, and Alshon Jeffery is a free agent. That means Hollins could be in a prime spot to compete for a role next off-season. I don’t think the ceiling is huge for Hollins, but if he can earn a consistent role he could be a fantasy WR3 in the future.

I was actually expecting Kittle to go earlier than the seventh pick in the third. Not because he is worth more than a third round pick but because the hype has been brewing at times around the young 49er. While there has been some excitement around him and he has flashed on occasion, he really hasn’t been overly productive. I think the acquisition of Jimmy Garoppolo does make Kittle a bit more enticing though. He could turn into a solid tight end and be in the mix as a high end TE2 if he continues his development. I’m just not going out and spending anything more than a middle to late third to pick him up in a trade.

A month ago, Kizer was probably a little bit higher on people’s lists than he is right now. The coaching staff really isn’t doing him any favors. The on again, off again starting role that Kizer has been a part of isn’t good for anyone. At this point, it is almost time to start wondering if you can trust anyone who plays quarterback for the Browns. The coaching staff seems clueless when it comes to how you are supposed to develop a quarterback, an offense, and a team as a whole. This puts a huge damper on what Kizer might have been.

The recent attempts of the Browns to trade for a quarterback makes me think that Kizer and the other 50 quarterbacks they have drafted recently aren’t going to amount to much. If the Browns don’t overpay for a free agent this off-season, they will likely spend yet another first round pick on a quarterback and potentially ruin another one.

Last Four Picks of the Third

3.09 – Dede Westbrook, WR JAC

3.10 – Matt Breida, RB SF

3.11 – Jonnu Smith, TE TEN

3.12 – James Conner, RB PIT

Westbrook has been a very interesting player to watch over the last 12 plus months. I don’t know that there has even been a Biletnikoff award winner who has had as little hype around him through the draft process. The fact that many felt he was over drafted when he was selected in the fourth round of the NFL draft stresses the differences between the pro and college games.

As a player, he has a very intriguing skill set, but he also doesn’t fit the mold of an NFL receiver. We have had other receivers be successful who didn’t fit the mold, but NFL teams seemed very hesitant to take a chance on Westbrook. We unfortunately haven’t seen anything from him this year because he started the season on the PUP list, but he is a player to keep an eye on. You might even be able to pick him up for less than a late third round pick. The Jaguars aren’t the deepest group at the receiver position, and Westbrook might be competing for a role in 2018.

A player who has been all over the rankings map in the last few weeks is Breida. At one point he was talked about as replacing Carlos Hyde as the every down starter, which sent his stock through the roof. That isn’t exactly how things have panned out so far. None the less, he has been a player to watch. I asked Joseph, who drafted him in this mock, to share some detailed thoughts on the young back, and he did a very nice job with it.

“Most third round picks are dart throws, and those selected towards the back end are even more unlikely to hit. However, Breida has already flashed on limited snaps in his time so far in San Francisco. He has soft hands and can fill a third-down role at a minimum. His explosiveness makes him a big-play threat, and he can be impressively elusive.

Breida is on the smaller side: at 5’9”, 195 pounds, he’s better suited to a complimentary back role like the one he’s currently filling. His stature could be the biggest barrier to watching him truly ever break out. Having said that, Breida has shown to be a capable handcuff, and he’s an athletic freak. Pairing those two factors with Carlos Hyde’s inability to stay healthy throughout much of his career and Kyle Shanahan’s capability to maximize the skillsets of late-round or undrafted running backs made me particularly interested.

Even though Hyde has impressed, it does not seem as if the 49ers are looking to retain him after his contract expires this offseason – as evidenced by the pre-season drama. With Jimmy Garoppolo in town, San Francisco seems to have their long-term quarterback in place, which allows them the flexibility to use their draft selections at other positions of need on the roster (and there are a lot). It wouldn’t be surprising to see Breida play a significant role in a committee next season, but he’ll also have to deal with the returning Joe Williams and whichever players the 49ers draft or bring in – not to mention if Hyde does end up returning.”

The penultimate pick of the mock draft was Jonnu Smith. He is another player who has received a lot of hype at times, but it hasn’t really translated to production on Sundays. He seems to be a bit of an afterthought when on the field, but the hype could just be the smoke before he catches fire.

Delanie Walker is 33 years old and seems to have a hard time staying healthy this year. While he hasn’t missed a ton of game time, all of the practice reps seem to be going to Smith, which will only help the youngster’s progress. Walker does have one more year left on his current contract, but Smith is a very intriguing selection has the potential heir in Tennessee.

Our mock draft concluded with the selection of one of the best stories of the whole draft class. James Conner is one of those guys you really, really want to see succeed in the NFL. With everything he’s been through and all of the reports about what kind of guy he is, you want to see him earn a starting role in the NFL. Unfortunately for him, he is behind one of the best in the league and a guy who very rarely comes off the field. This doesn’t give Connor much of a chance to show what he can do.

On his very limited opportunities, he has shown to be a solid rusher, but he hasn’t been used much in the passing game. I don’t know if the Steelers will bring Bell back, but I haven’t seen enough our of Connor to make me think he would be handed the job if Bell did end up on a new team. At the very least Connor would face some stiff competition from a player not currently on the team.

That’s it for our three round rookie mock redo! Things can and definitely will change some more over the next few weeks, but hopefully this helps with a lot of your late season trades and potential rebuilding strategies! Time to start looking towards the 2018 rookie class. It won’t be long before they need to declare for the draft and we know exactly who we are dealing with!

Good luck over the last part of the season!

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jacob feldman