Sunday Morning Huddle: Week Nine

Let’s face it, there’s an enormous amount of information out there on Sunday mornings. We’re not going to waste your time by repeating the news and notes about who’s in or out this week, since that’s really not what you visit us for. We’re also not going to do another article on starts or sits this week – we already have the personalized lineup advice for you on the premium content. Again, there are 100 places you can go for that, so no reason to repeat ourselves or others.

The Sunday Morning Huddle goes through each game and states what we’re looking to see from a dynasty perspective. One player will be picked from each team who has dynasty value tied to the game – players at a pivot point where their value could increase or decrease based on opportunity and performance.

Accountability Corner

As something new, I want to add some accountability to my calls that I make each week in the Sunday Morning Huddle. I don’t have a good way of defining whether a player’s value truly went up or down in a given week yet, so the results I am listing are based on my personal opinion. For example. Carson Wentz didn’t have an amazing week, but he didn’t faceplant either which demonstrates a high floor, so I’m going with an up for him.

Total hit percent for Week 8: 52.2%

Early Games

Atlanta at Carolina

A year after being the league MVP and leading his team to the Super Bowl, Matt Ryan is struggling to lift his team up. The result is consistently low fantasy output, and I am moving him down for the same reason Cam Newton went down last week – the young quarterbacks are good. Unless he can start putting up points this week, he is on a continuing downward trend.

The Panthers have not been their usual selves this season, and with Kelvin Benjamin departing there is a void on the offense now. Who gobbles up the opportunity? My answer comes in two parts – long term and short term. Short term, I love picking guys that will pivot against the Falcons as receiving running backs and I’m generally correct. This week, that guy is Christian McCaffrey and I have a hunch he hits his ceiling this week. Long term, someone else could be the man but that isn’t the scope of the Sunday Morning Huddle.

Baltimore at Tennessee

I have already written up Alex Collins multiple times, but I am going to keep at it. The rest of this team is having some serious struggles and he seems to be the one consistently efficient guy holding the offense together. The Titans defense isn’t great so there is opportunity to keep the train rolling.

With reports being that Jonnu Smith could see an expanded role this week,he could be the man. While the Baltimore defense is fairly stout, they do have a weakness against tight ends and I want to keep my eye on the man who has the upside to exploit it for long term dynasty value gains.

Cincinnati at Jacksonville

Lately I have written up Joe Mixon a lot as a value up, but it just isn’t coming together for him in a meaningful way for fantasy purposes so far. So now I am going to go ahead and address the elephant in the room – maybe he just won’t be the guy we think he can be. There isn’t anything wrong with it, but if he continues getting stymied I have no problem moving him down.

Impressive in the preseason, Dede Westbrook appears on track to play for the first time this season. Surely Blake Bortles won’t mind having another weapon, as he’s been missing Allen Robinson. Maybe Westbrook can step in and be a big part of this offense, or maybe he will disappoint after having his value remain high despite being inactive.

Denver at Philadelphia

What do we make of the Broncos offense with Brock Osweiler at the helm? I sure have no clue. The Eagles passing defense leaves opportunity, though, so I’ll roll with the receiver with the most potential value to gain in AJ Derby. If Brock gives him some meaningful looks, he could be moving on up in value.

Last week, Carson Wentz disappointed just a little but still turned in a useable performance against a bad defense. Now he gets to go against one of the best and I want to see if he can still maintain that useable floor despite down weeks and bad matchups. Given his track record to date and age, his ceiling is dynasty quarterback number one so we want to keep an eye on this.

Indianapolis at Houston

Oh wow, that got out of hand quickly. Now that we know Andrew Luck is out for the year, the Jacoby Brissett to Jack Doyle connection is where we want to focus for the rest of the season. Doyle balled out last week and put up huge numbers in a bad matchup, and now the Colts get to go up a team unlikely to be putting up points behind Tom Savage. Doyle could be a clutch player with an ultra high floor moving forward into the playoffs.

I really want to pick someone involved in the offense, but I can’t ignore D’Onta Foreman. Looking impressive through half the season with the offense rolling, he was essentially benched last week. Now, the team is without its starting quarterback and figures to lean on the run. With the offense humming, the coaching staff could afford to bench Foreman. Now, they need to get the run game jump started and, against the Colts, that could mean a big opportunity for him.

Los Angeles Rams at New York Giants

This season, there is no doubt that Todd Gurley has looked impressive as one of the top fantasy running backs. Looking at game logs tells a slightly different story inasmuch as he gets swallowed up by strong defensive lines. The Giants aren’t world beaters on the line, but they aren’t slouches either. I want to see him do well here against a team that should struggle to score points, and knows that Gurley will be fed.

I am also looking at Evan Engram once again since the Rams know that he will be fed the ball. It is much more difficult for a player to keep producing when the opposing team knows the ball is going to that player. So far, Engram has been outstanding despite this obstacle. Can he keep it up to keep his value moving up?

Tampa Bay at New Orleans

Jameis Winston is injured and New Orleans typically gives up points to opposing running backs. This sounds like a perfect now-or-never type of storm for Doug Martin. Can he show up in the box score this week? His efficiency rebounded to nearly four yards per carry last week, which still isn’t that great, but enough to keep him getting touches.

So far, Michael Thomas hasn’t had a truly explosive game in 2017. This week could be that week. With other receivers having ceiling games, I think Thomas has been lost in the churn a little bit despite having a very serviceable floor and weekly output. I’m not viewing this as a big opportunity to gain value, but he could get a little bump with a ceiling game here.

Late Games

Arizona at San Francisco

I have written about Adrian Peterson a lot lately, but the picture in Arizona has changed with the injury to Carson Palmer. Now Peterson will be tasked with carrying this offense on his back to set up the passing game. The 49ers aren’t a great defense, so he has an opportunity to accomplish just that this week. If he can, it should be a value up. If he can’t, it should be a value down.

I also am going to keep on writing about Trent Taylor in the Sunday Morning Huddle. He has caught 100% of his targets over the past two weeks for a less than impressive yardage total. What I am focused on here is his overall involvement and dependability. I have trouble envisioning his involvement staying the same if he can maintain this dependability.

Washington at Seattle

How long can Kirk Cousins maintain his fantasy value without reliable weapons in the passing game? Or is the lack of reliable weapons in the passing game a result of faults of his own? I have too many questions and not enough answers here, but between these questions, we have ascending younger quarterbacks. Continued struggles will have him moving down.

Washington has been tough on opposing wide receivers, but Seattle has three good ones that are on a roll right now with Russell Wilson slinging the ball. It’s tough to pick the right one for this week’s purposes, so I’ll just go with my “guy” in Paul Richardson, who hauled in a big week last week with multiple touchdowns and over 100 yards receiving. If he can sustain this kind of involvement both overall and in scoring, he will definitely be moving up.

Kansas City at Dallas

Which Tyreek Hill do we get this week? Inconsistent is the norm for him, as he seems to either blow up or disappear. The Cowboys are weak against wide receiver production, so I really want to see either a blow up week or a solid outing from him. If he can’t get more consistent for his floors, I will be moving him down.

Almost everything that I just wrote about Tyreek is about the opposite for Dez Bryant, who has had consistent output worth starting each week, but hasn’t really had a blow up game for quite a while. The one that is the same for each is that they are facing an easy matchup for wide receivers, so I’m thinking we may see our ceiling game from Dez and a bit of a value rebound for him.

Sunday Night

Oakland at Miami

Miami may be a train wreck, but they are still decent and a big part of that is their defense. Strong against most positions but susceptible to tight ends, this lines up as a nice opportunity for Jared Cook who has been having a nice season. If he can have a big game on the stage of Sunday Night Football, his value should go up despite his age.

Now without Jay Ajayi, Kenyan Drake is the obvious choice for a player at a value pivot point. An added bonus – the Raiders defense has been giving up solid production across the board so Miami may be able to run a balanced offense, and we could get a glimpse of what Drake might really be worth.

Monday Night

Detroit at Green Bay

On a big stage against a team with a suspect secondary, Marvin Jones has a chance to solidify himself as a strong option among wide receivers. He has quietly had several very nice weeks in a row and three weeks could make it a true trend. If he trends in this direction, count me in as this output has been fantastic for a post-hype sleeper.

Chicago and Minnesota made Aaron Jones look serviceable. Dallas and New Orleans made him look like a stud. Who is he, really? Lucky for us, the Lions are effectively middle of the road as far as rush defense goes, so we should get a glimpse of what he can do in an average situation. This game should go a long way in his evaluation moving forward.

Recap

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Trevor Bucher

Writer at Dynasty League Football

Trevor is a Florida State and Ball State alumnus with degrees in Asian Studies and History. He forecasts service part demand for the auto industry and moonlights as a dynasty aficionado. His takes on fantasy are typically rooted in statistics, history, and metrics, but he is open to the occasional gut feeling. You can follow him @evorzan for tweets about football and the occasional video game or anime reference.

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