FanDuel Bargains: Week Nine
Welcome back to the weekly FanDuel Value article. Every week (and into the post-season), I’ll be highlighting some of the best bargains on the best daily site in the industry, FanDuel.
We are concerned specifically with Grand Prize Pool (GPP) tournaments, which means these players offer higher upside and potentially lower floors. Not all of them will be cheap, but they are all good values for their price and should help you build around your main lineup structure. Depending on how you construct your lineup their viability can change.
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Note: I use 4for4.com’s Adjusted Fantasy Points Allowed (aFPA) to determine defensive rankings and pro-football-reference.com to find raw stats. When referring to defensive efficiency metrics I’m using www.sharpfootballstats.com.
Quarterback
Russell Wilson, SEA ($8500)
Line: -7 SEA
O/U: 45
OPP: WAS
The Seahawks can’t run the ball. This week the team plans to start Eddie Lacy again and despite being excited about his potential all off-season, not even I think that’s going to change anything. A 7 point favorite at home suggests the team will continue to put up plenty of points in week nine, and without the benefit of a run game it’s unlikely Russell Wilson will stop throwing.
The match has the fourth-highest projected game total of the week and the team has a top four projected total as well. He’s not cheap, priced as the second highest quarterback on the week, but he’s still a value and projected as the highest scoring quarterback on the week.
Jacoby Brissett, IND ($6500)
Line: -7 HOU
O/U: 46
OPP: IND
This was a lot easier to call before Deshaun Watson’s injury. All set to have points piled on top of them against a rolling Houston team, Brissett figured to have high upside for his price in GPPs. While the loss of Watson decreases the odds of a shootout, the fact remains that the Colts have not been an effective running team in 2017 and the Houston defense is the strongest Pass funnel unit in the NFL.
Brissett is averaging 16.9 rushing yards per game and has 3 rushing touchdowns on the year. T.Y. Hilton is still in the top ten for air yards and market share of air yards. The game is still projected to be in the top five highest scoring games despite Watson’s injury and and I think Brissett is still a solid value with GPP-level upside.
Other options: Drew Brees ($8300), Alex Smith ($7900)
Running Back
Carlos Hyde, SF ($6500)
Line: -2.5 ARI
O/U: 39.5
OPP: ARI
Carlos Hyde is a home underdog in a projected low scoring game against a moderately ranked pass funnel defence. None of that is exciting. However he’s still underpriced. The 49ers are playing a “hot hand” approach to running back and some weeks Matt Breida, despite playing roughly half as many snaps, is the one who gets the touchdown. That’s scary for DFS.
However Hyde is still in the top 13 for consistency in fantasy points averaging and averaging 15.2 points per game. He has had two double-touchdown games on the year and leads the backfield in red zone rushing attempts (18-2 against Matt Breida.) The 49ers have a top eight success rate inside the 10 yard line (31.6%) in rushing attempts for touchdowns, and ARI is giving up touchdowns at an above average 31.3% of pace inside the 10 yard line. Priced as the RB13, Hyde offers significant value.
Other options: Adrian Peterson ($5400), Damien Williams ($4500)
Wide Receiver
T.Y. Hilton, IND ($6600)
Line: -7
O/U: 46
OPP: HOU
T.Y. Hilton is in the top ten for pure air yards and market share of air yards in the league across all positions. No other words he’s getting a lot of opportunity, and chasing volume is a good idea in DFS especially when an elite level receiver is priced under $7000. The team recently recognized publicly that Hilton needs to be feed moving forward.
He has the 28th-ranked matchup for wide receivers according to aFPA. Houston also happens to be the strongest pass funnel defense in the NFL. No matter how their own offence looks without their new rookie star quarterback, the defense should still filter volume away from the run and towards the pass. Hilton also leads the Colts in red zone targets and is due for positive touchdown regression on his current target volume. He is priced as the WR16 this week.
Devin Funchess, CAR ($6100)
Line: -1
O/U: 42.5
OPP: ATL
There are lot of questions about how the Panthers offense will change now they have traded Kelvin Benjamin to the Bills. While the main beneficiary may be someone else, Devin Funchess was already the most heavily targeted receiver on the team (since technically Christian McCaffrey is a running back) and whatever bump he gets from the loss will only service to make him more valuable in DFS.
Benjamin had occupied 27% of the teams Market Share and 24% of the teams red zone targets. Funchess actually has the exact same number of red zone looks, but Benjamin had more targets inside the 10. Funchess has proven more effective on these targets as well (3 touchdowns compared to Benjamins zero with less valuable targets).
Other options: Dez Bryant ($7700), DeSean Jackson ($6200), Marquise Goodwin (4900),
Tight End
Jimmy Graham, SEA ($6200)
Line: -2 WAS
O/U: 49
OPP: WAS
Jimmy Graham ranks ninth in points per game at the tight end position this year. But that includes his slow start in the first two weeks. Since week three, he has been the TE5 in points per game. He caught two touchdowns last week and leads the Seahawks in targets inside the red zone (52.9% of targets inside the 10 and 29.5% of targets between the 20 and 11 yard line.) The concern over his low red zone usage last year is over. The team can’t run. Russell Wilson has been unleashed.
I think all the skill position players for the Hawks are strong plays this week, but Graham is set up to be the clear beneficiary and stacking option against the 26th-ranked defense against the position according to aFPA and the third-strongest Tight End Funnel (third-largest disparity in the defense rank against wide receivers and tight ends). Targets should flow to Graham this week and when Wilson is playing this well, you don’t want to miss out on them.
Other options: Jack Doyle ($5700), Jared Cook ($5500), Tyler Higbee ($4500)
UDFA's matter | British ex-pat | Writer of things
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