Rookie Report Card: Aaron Jones and Elijah McGuire

Dan Meylor

Each week throughout the season, I’ll cover at least two rookies in the Rookie Report Card and try to always include the biggest performers from that particular week. On top of reviewing my expectations for each player coming into the league and covering how he’s performed at the NFL level to this point, I’ll actually give him a grade in three categories. Those categories are performance to date, 2017 potential and long term upside.

The series continues with a look at a couple of similar running backs that outperformed their rookie draft status, Aaron Jones and Elijah McGuire.

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Aaron Jones, RB GB
Week Four Stats: 13 carries, 49 rushing yards (3.8 YPC), one touchdown

Coming out of UTEP, Jones wasn’t really on my radar until he was drafted by the Packers in the fifth round. When I attempted to do a little digging on him, the first thing that jumped off the screen was his combine numbers. With measurables that showed good speed (4.56 40-yard dash) and explosion (6.82 three-cone, 37 ½” vertical jump), he profiled as big play waiting to happen. When I found some college film on the Miners’ career rushing leader, I found exactly that.

Busting eight 40-plus yard runs in his final year on campus, Jones’ highlight reel from college is full of big plays that feature excellent vision to find even the smallest running lanes and an impressive burst to blast through the line and challenge defenders at the second level with quickness and change of direction ability.

Jones also displayed more power than I expected for a guy that measures 5’-9” tall and just over 200 pounds but he doesn’t back down when lowering his shoulder between the tackles. Although he often chooses to try to shake a defender rather than overpower him, he knows when to drive his legs and never leaves yardage on the field due to lack of effort.

Combined with great hands and above average pass blocking ability, Jones appeared to be Green Bay’s insurance policy for Ty Montgomery while fellow rookie Jamaal Williams (who was taken in the fourth round) would be the change of pace and between the tackles “thumper.”

Despite liking Jones a lot, I found myself favoring Williams during rookie draft season. After watching the pre-season, I realized that may have been a mistake.

Jones carried the ball 19 times for 105 yards (4.8 YPC) while catching 6 passes for 12 yards and a pair of touchdowns during the pre-season. He looked quick, athletic and smooth over those four games and outplayed Williams, who gained just 61 yards on 25 carries (2.4 YPC) while catching four passes for 52 yards. Nonetheless, I still ranked Williams higher.

While Jones wasn’t even active in week one and didn’t get on the field in weeks two and three, Williams continued to struggle to get his wheels going, carrying 14 times for 30 yards (2.1 YPC). Then in week four, Jones finally got a chance after Montgomery (ribs) and Williams (knee) both went down with injuries.

Playing with a lead, the Packers gave Jones 13 carries which he turned into 49 yards and a touchdown. On that two-yard score, the Green Bay offensive line allowed penetration by the Chicago front but he showed good vision and quickness, sliding to his right to get space and lowering his head to blast through the crease for six points.

Jones continued to display his great burst late in the game, particularly on a carry that he bounced to the outside when nothing developed between the tackles. Overall, it was an excellent debut for the rookie tailback.

While it appears Montgomery and Williams may be back sooner rather than later, Jones has looked good enough that he should be owned everywhere and would be an immediate flex option if both happen to be out vs. Dallas in week five.

After watching Jones and Williams play since joining the Packers, it’s apparent to me that Jones is the more talented backup tailback in Green Bay. It’s only a matter of time until he leapfrogs his rookie teammate to become Montgomery’s primary backup.

Hopefully you didn’t make the same mistake I did during draft season by trusting Williams’ higher draft status. I plan on trying to add Jones in as many leagues as possible this week. Fingers crossed that it’s not too late to atone that mistake.

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Elijah McGuire, RB NYJ
Week Four Stats: 10 carries, 93 rushing yards (9.3 YPC), one touchdown, two receptions, 38 receiving yards (two targets)

As a Packers fan, McGuire was the tailback I wanted Green Bay to take late in the 2017 NFL draft so I was a little bummed.

As a dynasty owner, I was thrilled that he consistently lasted until the fourth round of rookie drafts after he was selected by the Jets in the sixth round.

Coming out of Louisiana-Lafayette, many saw McGuire as a quality pass catcher that could contribute as a receiver out of the backfield and be a change-of-pace tailback. A smooth route runner with great hands and the ability to play the slot, he caught 130 passes for 1,394 yards and ten touchdowns in his four seasons with the Ragin’ Cajuns, so that was an easy conclusion when trying to figure his NFL upside.

I, however, liked McGuire as much for his work as a runner as his work as a receiver.

McGuire may be slightly smaller (5’-10”, 214 pounds) than a prototypical tailback but possesses incredible burst at the line of scrimmage. An ideal one cut runner, he uses good vision to identify running lanes and that eye-popping acceleration to blast through creases. With subtle hesitations and shoulder fakes, he’s able to shake defenders at the second level and always finishes runs with authority, lowering his shoulder and falling forward for extra yardage.

Honestly, I was surprised McGuire lasted until the sixth round. I really figured an NFL team would see him as having three-down potential.

While it’s unclear if the Jets see him in that light, McGuire is certainly making a strong case.

Playing sporadically since week two as New York’s third tailback behind Bilal Powell and Matt Forte, McGuire carried 13 times for 63 yards (4.8 YPC) in weeks two and three but played a little bigger role with Forte sidelined in week three against the Jaguars.

McGuire carried 10 times for 93 yards and a touchdown while adding two catches for 38 yards as a receiver against Jacksonville. His biggest play came in the third quarter on first down where he lined up as a single back and took the handoff to the left. Blasting through the hole off left guard, he showed great explosiveness and vision as he angled back towards the middle of the field. Using a subtle stutter step at the second level, he shook the unblocked safety coming down in run support and turned on the jets to outrace everybody to pay dirt. It was a 69-yard touchdown that should have opened anybody’s eyes watching the game.

Although McGuire has an uphill climb to find regular playing time, he’s taken advantage of every opportunity given to him. While the Jets are currently 2-2, they’re likely to fall out of contention sooner rather than later and destined to find out what they have in their young guys.

McGuire is that guy in their backfield.

While he shouldn’t be fantasy lineups in the short term, McGuire should be owned in all dynasty leagues and owners should consider him a developmental prospect with the upside to produce RB2 numbers as soon as later this year.

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dan meylor