Sunday Morning Huddle: Week Eight
Let’s face it, there’s an enormous amount of information out there on Sunday mornings. We’re not going to waste your time by repeating the news and notes about who’s in or out this week, since that’s really not what you visit us for. We’re also not going to do another article on starts or sits this week – we already have the personalized lineup advice for you on the premium content. Again, there are 100 places you can go for that, so no reason to repeat ourselves or others.
The Sunday Morning Huddle goes through each game and states what we’re looking to see from a dynasty perspective. One player will be picked from each team who has dynasty value tied to the game – players at a pivot point where their value could increase or decrease based on opportunity and performance.
So Early It Hurts Game
Minnesota at Cleveland in London
Oh God, they keep doing this, why? If you bought into Kyle Rudolph as a top tight end, you haven’t necessarily been left holding nothing, but you also likely haven’t gotten the kind of production you were expecting. Luckily, the Browns are the remedy for tight end productivity woes. If we are going to get a glimpse of what a ceiling for Rudolph looks like – at least with Case Keenum at the helm – this is probably the week. All bets are off once Sam Bradford and/or Teddy Bridgewater return.
Speaking of receiving productivity, Duke Johnson, Jr. is still averaging nearly 45 receiving yards per game. I really don’t believe this offense is going to improve that much either this year or next year, so his involvement won’t be going away with the team likely playing from behind in every game. I’m not saying I’d break the bank for him, but sustained involvement like this makes him one of the few Browns worthy of checking in on him in the trade market each week.
Early Games
Atlanta at New York Jets
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After seeing his involvement drop in every game since the season opener, Mohamed Sanu garnered 10 targets last week versus New England. For a Falcons team whose offense has faltered in recent weeks, this game with the Jets could be competitive and there is almost certainly a blueprint of sorts for how to slow down the Falcons offense. I am thinking that could mean more opportunity for Sanu moving forward, which could merit a value increase.
For the Jets, Matt Forte has gobbled up targets out of the backfield the past few weeks and now gets to go up against a Falcons offense that struggles to defend receiving backs. This feels almost too convenient in terms of timing, as doing well here could make Forte a more attractive target heading into fantasy playoffs.
Oakland at Buffalo
This is a tough one with Marshawn Lynch out. Last week DeAndre Washington and Jalen Richard split time once Lynch was ejected, and both looked capable. It’s possible this looks like a timeshare this week and both players see a value increase. It’s also possible one of them runs away with it. What I do know is that Lynch hasn’t been particularly Beast Mode this season on the field, and success from the young guys could mark a permanent shift.
I feel forced into continuously writing about Zay Jones for Buffalo. The gap between his opportunity and actual production is absolutely insane. He has seven receptions on 32 targets for the season, but instead of getting less opportunity he is getting more – with nine targets in week seven alone. With tasty matchups in the fantasy playoffs, if Zay can put it together he could be a league winner as long as Buffalo sticks with him. On the flip side, if he continues to fail to capitalize on his opportunity, he could suddenly lose most of his value. The range of outcomes here is mind boggling.
Carolina at Tampa Bay
So far this season, Cam Newton has either been good or bad for fantasy purposes. Tampa Bay is giving up a lot of production to opposing passing games, so I have him penciled in for a good week. Having said that, with the emergence of a cohort of younger quarterbacks all doing well, his relative value should be dwindling as a result of his limited consistent effectiveness in fantasy. Even a good game here won’t resurrect his value, and a bad one will help to torpedo it further.
Doug Martin has been serviceable for fantasy purposes so far this season, but he hasn’t had a ceiling game or even been efficient. Last week he gained less than 50 yards on 20 carries. How long will Tampa continue to feed him the rock? If he has another bad outing, it could be time to throw out some buy low offers as the schedule does improve.
Chicago at New Orleans
I’m going out on a limb entirely here. Tarik Cohen has gone from low value to high value to a player whose value is risky enough that he’s likely near impossible to trade. One thing that pops out to me is recent game scripts have not played out to Cohen’s strengths, and his usage has plummeted. This week, the Saints figure to be up in points and Cohen’s skills could be more valuable for the Bears again. If not, his value really can’t rebound anytime soon.
I am way too late to the party for this call after Ted Ginn broke out with a huge game, showing as more than just a deep threat last week. The writing was on the wall with the Brandin Cooks trade and the lack of involvement from Willie Snead. Sean Payton was not joking when he said he had plans for how to use Ginn. His value has not yet fully caught up to his situation, so look to see if the usage trend continues this week.
Indianapolis at Cincinnati
Jack Doyle has been a target monster for the Colts this season, and I still don’t think most of the rest of the team will move off of their current values until Andrew Luck’s return is within sight. Having said that, the Bengals are a tough opponent for tight ends, so it will be good to see what he can do in a bad spot as a target vacuum.
Indianapolis is a dumpster fire on defense, and Joe Mixon was an efficiency beast last week before inexplicably not getting touches. All indications are that Mixon is going to pop off this week, and the buying window for the running back maligned for off-field concerns could be coming to a close for those dynasty owners lacking conviction in their scruples.
Los Angeles Chargers at New England
Lately, Keenan Allen has caught a lower percentage of his targets than he typically has through his career. I think that has led to some recency bias in his valuation, and the Patriots are a likely spot for a bounce back. This is something to pay close attention to heading into the trading frenzy that precedes fantasy playoffs.
Looking like a great value proposition compared to his production in weeks four and five, Danny Amendola has since fallen off in what is likely a simple situation where there are too many mouths worth feeding in the Patriots offense. Someone will always be the odd man out. Another low output will have him dropping from the value proposition range that makes him worth pursuing.
San Francisco at Philadelphia
It won’t set the world on fire, but over the two weeks since CJ Beathard starting taking meaningful snaps at quarterback, Trent Taylor has five targets per game. Given his current value, if this continues he will be deserving a value up based on opportunity alone. Last week he caught all five passes. That kind of efficiency can go a long way at his price.
Another miss of mine so far this season in Sunday Morning Huddle has been not writing about Carson Wentz. This kid is on fire and he is maximizing the talent around him – the sign of a potentially great quarterback. He is deserving of a bump into the upper tiers of dynasty quarterbacks, and this week he can solidify that status by performing to expectations against a woeful 49ers defense.
Late Games
Houston at Seattle
Speaking of quarterbacks deserving of moving up, Deshaun Watson now gets a tough test on the road against Seattle. If he can keep proving his worth he can keep moving up. His worst outing of the season was in week one against Jacksonville, which we can now safely say was most likely more about their defense than his ability. Seattle is one of the few teams with the defensive ceiling to compare to Jacksonville at present, so I’m really excited to see how this plays out.
Last week Seattle played the New York Giants, and this week they play Houston. Something these teams have in common is their ability to limit production from top receivers. Doug Baldwin just torched the Giants for nine catches on 12 targets, gaining 92 yards and a touchdown in the process. If he has back to back strong performances in tough spots, he has to move up a little considering the Seattle rushing attack isn’t gaining steam anytime soon.
Dallas at Washington
A common thread through this week’s article has been players that might be seeing a value bump at the right time of the season to gain dynasty value for playoff season. Jason Witten, the ageless one, appears to fit the bill as well. He is in a good spot against a Redskins team that is weak against tight ends, and his involvement in the offense has rebounded after a few down weeks.
Dallas gives up production to opposing wide receivers, and Josh Doctson is now playing a huge role in terms of snaps at the expense of Terrelle Pryor. His destiny is his own now that he is finally healthy, and this game has all the hints we need to suss out that it could be his coming out party.
Sunday Night
Pittsburgh at Detroit
It’s been a few weeks since I wrote that Martavis Bryant needed to have a ceiling game to maintain his value. Since then, he has torpedoed his value by trash talking teammates on social media and continued to fail to impress on the field. If we don’t see a rebound soon, Bryant could be another cautionary tale about players with off-field concerns.
After seeing very little passing game work early in the season, Theo Riddick appears to be getting most of the passing work that Ameer Abdullah was getting. This is great, because Riddick’s only value comes from his prowess in the passing game. I expect this game should involve a good bit of short passing since the Steelers have proven tough down the field, and that bodes well for a continued resurgence from Riddick.
Monday Night
Denver at Kansas City
The Broncos have struggled mightily on offense the past two games. The Chiefs defense is a bit of a funnel defense – being strong against the run and weak against the pass and big plays. That plays into Demaryius Thomas’ hand for this game, as he should be the beneficiary and the team needs him to step up to get rolling once again. Becoming the guy that lifts the team up is a big deal when it comes to future opportunities and trust from both the coaching staff and quarterback.
We saw Kareem Hunt explode to start the season, and then cool off. Of course, for him “cooling off” just means clearing 100 yards in each game without scoring a touchdown. He has performed well against other top run defenses, but Denver is the king of run defense right now. How does he do in this spot, on the big stage? If the Denver offense continues to struggle, can he grind the clock and be productive when they know he is getting the ball? He could get a big value up with a strong performance here.
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- Sunday Morning Huddle: Week 15 - December 17, 2017
- Sunday Morning Huddle: Week 14 - December 10, 2017
- Sunday Morning Huddle: Week 13 - December 3, 2017
