FanDuel Bargains: Week Eight

By Peter Howard

Posted on October 28, 2017

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Over the next 17 weeks (and into the post-season), I’ll be highlighting some of the best bargains on the best daily site in the industry, FanDuel.

I won’t suggest any player I don’t think has upside, this slants the suggestions towards Grand Prize Pool (GPP) tournaments. But I try to keep the main suggestions cash game viable as well, unless otherwise stated. Depending on how you construct your lineup their viability can change. Remember, though, every play holds risk (still working on that time machine to fix this problem.)

If you love playing daily fantasy football, remember you can get an Annual Subscription to DLF (a $29.99 value) by just signing up for FanDuel and depositing your initial $10 through this link.

Note: I use 4for4.com’s Adjusted Fantasy Points Allowed (aFPA) to determine defensive rankings and pro-football-reference.com to find raw stats. When referring to defensive efficiency metrics I’m using www.sharpfootballstats.com.

Quarterback

Tyrod Taylor, BUF ($7600)

Line: -2.5 BUF

O/U: 45.5

OPP: OAK

Tyrod Taylor has a safe floor this week. He’s a favorite at home and tends to score more fantasy points in home games over road games. He is up against the eight-best matchup for the quarterback position and is averaging 6 rushing attempts for 29 rushing yards per game. However there is also the potential for upside as the matchup could go over its projected total.

Oakland is the second weakest opponent defense in passing efficiency and 20th in rushing efficiency. The only team worse at limiting passing efficiency than Oakland is the team they faced last week, Tampa Bay. In that contest Taylor racked up 268 passing yards and 53 rushing yards and 20 FanDuel points – while only having to score a single touchdown. The Bills should be able to put up points against Oakland just the same, and the best response for Oakland is also going to be the passing game. Buffalo is the toughest rush efficiency defense Oakland has faced since the Broncos in week two (when Oakland managed a grand total of 27 team rushing yards) so this could be a shootout. Priced as the QB13, Taylor has a reasonably safe floor and potential tournament level upside.

Other options: Russell Wilson (7900), Kirk Cousins (7800), Cam Newton (7800)

Running Back

LeGarrette Blount, PHI ($6100)

Line: -12.5 PHI

O/U: 46.5

OPP: SF

It’s difficult to trust yourself when you write out LeGarrette Blount’s name in a DFS value article. It’s the kind of thing that makes you want to back up and reflect, not just on your process, but life in general. Look, I know it’s a nasty thought but it’s a tighter pricing week than normal on FanDuel and something’s got to give. Blount is a decent fade of the likely more popular Joe Mixon play, especially if you want to play parts of the Bengals Passing game. Ultimately, Blount is the lead back on a home favorite team.

Wendell Smallwood’s touches rose in weeks three and four (13 and 14 respectively) but they actually dropped back to 10 in week seven. Meanwhile, Blount has a nasty but fair touch floor of 14 at his price floor. He hasn’t been running badly, managing 59.9 rushing yards per game and is one of only three players with 14 plus red zone attempts but only one touchdowns or less.

According to my expected points model he should have scored around 27 fantasy points given the number and area of his rushing attempts but has only scored six. While that sounds bad, statistically it means he is due for regression back to the league mean. He is seeing 70% of the teams rushing attempts inside the 10 yard line and 66% inside the 5 (according to 4for4.com’s red zone app). Finally, it’s a great matchup! The 49ers have given up the most fantasy points to the running back position in the league this year. So, Blount has a locked in (medium level) touch floor against the weakest run defense in the NFL.

Other options: Mark Ingram (7200), Dion Lewis (5400), Matt Forte (5400)

Wide Receiver

A.J. Green, CIN ($8500)

Line: -10.5 CIN

O/U: 41.5

OPP: IND

Is there such a thing as a chalk GPP play? Yes, and A.J. Green, despite typically being better on the road, might be it. Green has the sixth-most air yards in the NFL right now and a 30% target share on the Bengals offence (per airyards.com). Despite only having 6 targets last week he is still the majority of the passing game in Cincinnati.

Brandon LaFell leads in team in red zone targets (and is a decent contrary play if you are interested) but A.J Green still has 18.2% of the teams targets inside the 10 yard line. While a line of -10.5 doesn’t predict a shootout, the Bengals still have the fourth-highest projected team total on the slate and Green has the third-best positional matchup in the league. Even Blake Bortles put up over 300 passing yards on them last week and Andy Dalton is, at least, better then Bortles.

Doug Baldwin, SEA ($7700)

Line: -6 SEA

O/U: 45.5

OPP: HOU

The Seahawks seemed to (finally!) shift gears again last week and let Russell Wilson put on a show of pure efficiency and talent. It could have been even better if not for a few key touchdown drops (notably Jimmy Graham in the red zone). In week eight, the team still has no running game and it faces Houston, the second heaviest pass funnel defense.

Houston is ranked as the 11th-best matchup for wide receivers and according to airyards.com he is above average in “Receiver Air Conversion Ratio” (RACR) at every depth of target since 2015. In other words, when the Seahawks turn up his volume, Baldwin is able to find production.

Other options: Michael Crabtree (7200), Adam Thielen (6700), JuJu Smith-Schuster (5500), Marquise Goodwin (4900).

Tight End

Jordan Reed, WAS ($6100)

Line: -2 WAS

O/U: 49

OPP: DAL

Josh Doctson is an incredible prospect. I want to say that up front. But his breakout in week seven feels overstated. Could it be the start of something special? Yes, it could. He’s that kind of prospect. But in a game where he finally out-snapped Terrelle Pryor (who actually out-snapped him in the second half) he managed 3 receptions for 39 yards. Jamison Crowder had more targets than Doctson and has had in every game accept for week four.

Jordan Reed, on the other hand, also played season high snaps in week seven. But he was targeted 10 times and managed 8 receptions for 64 yards and two touchdowns. He has also had more targets than both Doctson and Crowder in every game accept week three. The Washington offense runs through Reed in the red zone and always has when he’s playing. He leads the team in targets inside the 20 this year and shares the highest target market share inside the ten with Chris Thompson. The game projects to be a shootout with plenty of passing and chances for fantasy goodness.

Other options: Hunter Henry (5500), Jimmy Graham (6400).

FanDuel Bargains: Week Eight