Martavis Bryant: Buy, Sell or Hold?

Bruce Matson

In the last few weeks, Martavis Bryant has been surrounded by a storm cloud of drama that continues to follow him wherever he goes. Last week, there were reports stating that he demanded a trade out of Pittsburgh. This news was very astounding, considering how loyal the franchise remained during his suspension for violating the league’s substance abuse policy.

After a week of negative news reports swirling around the internet, it might have been a good idea if Bryant laid low for a little while. Instead, he decided to light Instagram on fire and watch it burn, by responding to a comment on an Instagram post that baited him into criticizing teammate JuJu Smith-Schuster.

In that post Bryant stated, “JuJu is no where near better than me, fool. All they need to do is give me what I want and y’all can have JuJu and whoever else.’’

The post was later deleted, but nonetheless, Bryant’s recently perceived diva persona added with his suspension for violating the league’s substance abuse policy which caused him to miss the entire 2016 season, suddenly makes him a huge risk dynasty. His stock in dynasty might shift downward due to his antics, presenting buying and selling opportunities for many dynasty enthusiasts.

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Bryant finished his three-year collegiate career at Clemson with 1,354 receiving yards and 13 touchdowns. At the combine he measured in at 6-foot-4 while weighing in at 211-pounds. His size combined with his 4.42 40-yard dash impressed a lot of people at the combine, making him a very intriguing prospect. The Pittsburgh Steelers selected him in the fourth round of the 2014 NFL Draft.

During his first two seasons as a Steeler, he caught 76 passes for 1,314 yards and 14 touchdowns. After his 2015 season, he became a hot commodity amongst dynasty owners, considering he was a young wide receiver who caught 14 passes for 183 yards and one touchdown in two playoffs games. We then saw a quick decline in his dynasty stock when he violated the league’s substance abuse policy, causing him to miss the entire 2016 season. So far, he has played in all seven games this year for the Steelers, catching 18 passes for 234 yards and one touchdown.

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By using DLF’s Dynasty ADP Comparison Tool, we can look at Bryant’s historical ADP for the last 21 months. As you can see, his stock fluctuated quite a bit in the last year and half due to him being suspended and missing the entire 2016 season. From January to March in 2016, he was a consensus top-25 pick in startup drafts. Then during the summer after news broke concerning his suspension, his value plummeted to the 140 range in ADP. Once the 2016 season started, his value increased every month and the closer we got to his reinstatement date the higher his ADP climbed.

With a 37 ADP in October of 2017, he almost regained the dynasty value he had after his breakout year in 2015. Considering his most recent events, there could be some owners who could be tempted to trade him away for pennies on the dollar, because they don’t want to get burned if he for some reason gets traded away to a bad team or gets cut. This doesn’t mean his ADP will experience a significant drop in November, but there are some owners who have lost faith and are willing to jump ship.

With the emergence of JuJu Smith-Schuster who is currently carving out a significant role in Pittsburgh’s offense. He’s a tremendous talent and could be the team’s second receiver in the near future. The team spent a second round pick to acquire his talents, which is a considerable amount of capital to invest in a player to not provide the opportunities necessary to develop that player’s skill set. Smith-Schuster is a major threat to take over a large market share of the targets in the passing offense within the near future. Antonio Brown is one of the league’s best receivers and he’s going to be the main focal point of Pittsburgh’s passing game until he retires, leaving limited opportunities for the rest of the receivers in the offense. If Smith-Schuster emerges as the team’s WR2 then there wouldn’t be enough targets in the team’s passing offense to make Bryant or any of the other pass catchers fantasy relevant.

Bryant has never surpassed 1,000 yards receiving in his career. Even in high school he couldn’t eclipse the 1,000-yard barrier, as he gained 776 receiving yards during his junior season and 722 yards during his senior year. His most productive season at Clemson was during his senior year when he caught 42 passes for 828 yards and seven touchdowns. His below average 53.41 percent catch rate during his tenure with the Pittsburgh Steelers, suggests that he has issues at converting his targets into catches. In 2015, his most productive season of his career, he led the team with nine drops, equating to a 9.78 percent drop rate. This means he dropped almost one out of ten passes thrown his way in 2015. To put that into perspective, Antonio Brown was targeted 193 times that year and only dropped two passes, equating to an amazing 1.04 percent drop rate.

According to Spotrac.com, Bryant would only account for around $363,000 in dead cap space, meaning the Steelers could easily cut or trade him if their relationship continues to go downhill. They also could easily just keep him on their roster, since his salary is very cap friendly.

Win-Now Teams

Unless something changes with his situation in Pittsburgh, Bryant isn’t really netting you enough fantasy points to get your team over the hump. If you feel that you are a player away from making the playoffs or possibly winning a championship, then this might be the time to try and unload him for a proven commodity that can add points to your lineup. The goal here is to move an asset that presents a lot of risk for something that can help in the short-term. The best practice here would be to target rebuilding teams who need young players with upside and try to acquire an aging player who is still putting up points on a weekly basis.

Don’t sell Bryant, just to sell him. Hold Bryant if you can’t get appropriate value for him. If the trade doesn’t help your team or relieve you from the stress of his stock possibly bottoming out in the near future, then don’t make the deal. He’s still a very athletic prospect with a lot of upside, so there’s still a chance that he can right the ship and become fantasy relevant again.

Rebuilding Teams

Face it, your team is out of the hunt and you’re looking to build for the future. Bryant is a young prospect who has proven that he can compete in the league. He’s a screaming buy, if you can get him at a reduced cost. The goal here would be to offer older veteran players whose dynasty value is depreciating for Bryant. Whatever you do, don’t overpay for him, because he still presents a lot of risk, considering he could potentially be completely out of football in the near future. He should at least get another shot somewhere else, but you have to always plan for the worst-case scenario.

Using DLF’s Dynasty Trade Finder you can view trades from over 3,000 different leagues on My Fantasy League In the last few days he has been traded straight up for C.J. Anderson. He also was recently traded for Alshon Jeffery. From league to league, a player’s value could be completely different, depending on how owners value certain players in a league, so don’t be surprised if you can’t pull off a similar type of deal. Test the waters, try and fetch value if you can and if you can’t, then hold.

Bryant is a very electric player who has the potential to take over a game and produce big time fantasy numbers. There’s never going to be enough targets to go around in Pittsburgh to make him a consistent option in fantasy, so a trade might be the best thing for him. I still like him, but it’s hard not to be objective and completely ignore the potential risks that’s associated with his stock. Each league and team is a totally different situation, and it never hurts to kick the tires to see what you can get for him on the trade market.

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bruce matson