Sunday Morning Huddle: Week Seven
Let’s face it, there’s an enormous amount of information out there on Sunday mornings. We’re not going to waste your time by repeating the news and notes about who’s in or out this week, since that’s really not what you visit us for. We’re also not going to do another article on starts or sits this week – we already have the personalized lineup advice for you on the premium content. Again, there are 100 places you can go for that, so no reason to repeat ourselves or others.
The Sunday Morning Huddle goes through each game and states what we’re looking to see from a dynasty perspective. One player will be picked from each team who has dynasty value tied to the game – players at a pivot point where their value could increase or decrease based on opportunity and performance.
Early Games
Arizona at Los Angeles Rams
Vintage Adrian Peterson was on display last week after I wrote him up as a possible value up and he did not fail to exceed my (and pretty much everyone’s) wildest expectations. Now he’s going up against the Rams, who are giving up ridiculous fantasy statistics to opposing running backs. You might think his value won’t have room to grow much beyond where it already has from last week, but it certainly can grow more with sustained performances heading into fantasy playoffs.
Moving the opposite direction, Sammy Watkins came out on fire this year and at one point through multiple games, Jared Goff had a perfect passer rating while targeting him. Then he just kind of stopped producing fantasy relevant statistics. Well, good news – the Cardinals like to give up points to opposing wide receivers, so maybe this is a get right game. This game has a high over/under and the Rams are actually favored, so it would be reassuring to see Sammy get his.
Baltimore at Minnesota
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This entire offense is ugly, and Alex Collins probably isn’t getting a fair look as he isn’t featured, but he is now up to 52 carries and 6.44 yards per carry average on the season. In an inefficient offense, it would make sense for the team to get him some more touches. This is a bad place for it against a stout Minnesota defense, but if he can perform here I think he earns a bigger role moving forward.
Among receivers for the Vikings last week, it was none other than Laquon Treadwell that turned heads looking like the number three option with Stefon Diggs out. Diggs is out again this week, and Treadwell may have earned himself some more looks. He has the draft pedigree and theoretical talent level that it shouldn’t surprise if he begins to put things together. This is definitely a situation to monitor as his value could rise substantially in the near future.
Tampa Bay at Buffalo
Averaging over 70 yards and five receptions per game, and owning a touchdown in each of the past four, it’s time to give Cameron Brate his due. He is an integral part of this offense that cannot be ignored, and his value should be rising as long as this trend continues. In forecasting, three periods demonstrating the same trend markers can relatively safely be considered the formation of a true trend. Sample size in football is small enough that three games is an adequate sample, so his value should be adjusting. Check to see if today’s game bucks the trend and he needs to go down a tick.
In week five, with Jordan Matthews out, Zay Jones saw a 94% snap rate and drew six targets. He didn’t turn them into much of anything, which means his dynasty value is still in the gutter relative to the offseason. It is hard to say if he will continue to get looks with Matthews returning, but now Clay Charles is out. I could see the team continuing to give Jones opportunities, and I could see him turning them into production and a corresponding value increase. Continued struggles will likely move him down more like Nelson Agholor and Laquon Treadwell the past few years.
Carolina at Chicago
In terms of 2017 stat lines, last week was an outlier for Kelvin Benjamin, who is continuing his slide down my rankings despite being a fellow FSU alumnus. Devin Funchess has averaged nine targets per game the last four games despite being banged up for one of them. Benjamin is averaging just over six targets a game in the same span, with 13 targets coming in last week’s game. I don’t think he’ll repeat this opportunity and he’ll revert to his lower target trend that corresponds with his dropping value.
I’m a bit delayed in writing up Jordan Howard, who proved me wrong in week three and pulled himself back up to fantasy relevance. He operated as a workhorse last week with 36 carries and has been increasing his snap rate at the expense of Tarik Cohen. It looks clear that the Bears intend to mask Mitchell Trubisky’s shortcomings as a rookie with a more than healthy dose of the run game. This trend looks likely to stick, and Howard should be moving back up.
Tennessee at Cleveland
As of writing, Delanie Walker looks unlikely to play this week in an effort to get him healthy. Meanwhile, Cleveland is terrible at defending tight ends and rookie Jonnu Smith already looks capable, with multiple touchdowns and a high reception rate on his limited targets. If he gets an opportunity to be featured, he could explode here and ascend up the dynasty tight end rankings along with the rest of the rookies.
Lacking wide receivers, Cleveland has been turning to Duke Johnson, Jr. for receiving production and getting results. Last week being the outlier, I expect Johnson to return to his productive ways and we’re getting to the point he should be moving up as a result of what he is accomplishing on a team struggling to move the ball. Tennessee is not the defense that Houston is, so he should be back to it.
New Orleans at Green Bay
I was wrong about Mark Ingram. Wow, what a game against the Lions. Kamara took a back seat and Ingram ground down the opposition. Now that Green Bay is without Aaron Rodgers, this looks like another week where the Saints could use Ingram as their hammer and grinder. More than capable since the team shifted to more of a zone system, he could go up in value with another game even the half of last week’s.
What do we make of this team without Aaron Rodgers? Brett Hundley has a chance to prove his ability, and with the weapons at his disposal he could turn into a relevant dynasty player for the rest of this year. The value of the other Packers players now depends upon his ability, and he has a chance to establish himself as a valuable commodity in 2019 when he hits free agency. The Saints will likely be ball-hawking in this one, so we want to see some mistake-free football from Hundley.
Jacksonville at Indianapolis
The Colts are not very good at defense, and Leonard Fournette figures to dominate this game. What I am curious about is to what degree the Jaguars mask Blake Bortles in what should be an easy game for his team. Do they let him take the reigns or do they cover him up with the run game and defense? If it is the latter, I expect his dynasty value to continue sliding.
The Jaguars are a stout defense, but if they have a weakness it is on the ground. Frank Gore is unimpressive this year, Robert Turbin is out with injury, and Marlon Mack looks both good and is the likely recipient of more touches. This one is pretty cut and dry. What does he do with them? Becoming a featured back is within reach, and if he does that his value should skyrocket upon Andrew Luck’s return.
New York Jets at Miami
I’ve said it before and I’ll say it again, DFS pricing on DraftKings is a great indicator of short term trends that could impact the dynasty game. At bargain basement prices a few short weeks (and multiple value up write-ups from me) ago, Austin Seferian-Jenkins is now up to $5000 and he deserves this pricing. Now above guys like Jimmy Graham, Jordan Reed, and Cameron Brate, his value still has room to grow in yet another good tight end match up against the Dolphins.
I’m going a bit unexpected here and choosing Kenny Stills. With DeVante Parker doubtful, Stills is in for an increased workload. Last week he performed well with Parker out, posting four receptions on four receptions for 49 yards and a touchdown. His weekly upside is higher than that, but if he can prove consistent he should be more involved in this offense going forward.
Late Games
Dallas at San Francisco
Dak Prescott has played well this year, to be sure, but he hasn’t had huge upside. Failing to record a 300 yard passing game and also not establishing elite fantasy options out of his receivers, it feels like we need a ceiling game from him to solidify his dynasty value. His floor is safe, but we need that ceiling at some point or others will be passing him. In a game where the Cowboys should be able to roll, will there be a better time to see it?
The connection between new quarterback CJ Beathard and rookie tight end George Kittle appears to be alive and well in the NFL. This duo has room to grow together, but the upside lies in Kittle as an individual player since Beathard does not have the weapons around him to turn into a truly viable fantasy option at this time. Look to see if this connection keeps rolling in week seven, and if it does go ahead and move Kittle up some more.
Cincinnati at Pittsburgh
What do we make of the Bengals coming out of the bye? I’m not sure, but before the bye Joe Mixon was beginning to get more involved in the offense, so I’ll look to him for an indicator of his future usage this season coming out of the bye. Teams often focus on making shifts over the bye, and the Cincinnati running back situation is one to monitor.
JuJu Smith-Schuster has been relatively involved in the Steelers offense as a rookie despite the presence of some stellar options. This bodes well, and recent rumors of Martavis Bryant’s discontent, if true, will only help to fuel the team’s desire to get Smith-Schuster more involved. This is another situation to monitor closely as he could turn into a valuable asset sooner than later.
Denver at Los Angeles Chargers
Despite a poor fantasy output in week six, Bennie Fowler garnered eight targets in a game that Demaryius Thomas and Emmanuel Sanders both played the majority of. Now without Sanders for this week, that role could increase. Throw in that the Chargers top corner will probably be all over Thomas, and this seems like a sneaky blowup spot for Fowler. With both of the team’s top receivers getting up there in age, younger receivers for the team, like Fowler, have a real opportunity to grow with production.
We appear to be witnessing a changing of the guard at tight end for the Chargers from Antonio Gates to Hunter Henry. The Broncos are giving up points to tight ends, and Henry can really solidify his role with another good week. The long term upside here is immense, and it looks like Henry will realize his potential.
Seattle at New York Giants
Jimmy Graham has been fairly heavily involved in the Seahawks offense lately, and the Giants aren’t very good at defending tight ends. I have a lot of write ups like this, but situations like this are a good way to predict blow up games, and blow up games have a large impact on player value since they demonstrate ceiling. Anyway, Jimmy could come out of this game looking like a focal point and it could represent a nice sell high moment for a dynasty team that already has a strong young tight end.
The same situation as last week, Evan Engram is the best skill position player on the Giants offense and they will likely focus on him. The Seahawks are yet another good defense, but exploitable in the past by tight ends. Another solid outing will be moving him higher and higher into the tight end stratosphere.
Sunday Night
Atlanta at New England
How about Julio Jones? New England loves to give up production to opposing offenses in general, and Julio is a stud that hasn’t blown up in a while. If he can’t show a ceiling soon, I’m moving him down a smidge, and maybe you should too.
What a great spot for James White – who destroyed the Falcons in the Super Bowl. The Falcons have been weak against receiving backs for years, and he is one of the more productive ones in the league right now. In a game with an extremely high over/under, White will likely come out of this week looking like the guy to own, and that could impact his dynasty value as owners look to solidify themselves for championship runs.
Monday Night
Washington at Philadelphia
With neither Terrelle Pryor or Jamison Crowder living up to expectations, I’m turning my eye towards Josh Doctson for this matchup. Pretty much every week I select a wide receiver against Philadelphia because they struggle to defend the pass. Doctson hasn’t been getting a ton of playing time, but that could begin changing as soon as Monday night.
Zach Ertz belongs in the upper echelon of tight ends right up there with Rob Gronkowski and Travis Kelce. That won’t change this week against a Washington team that has been failing to stop opposing tight ends consistently. Ertz had a bad match up with the Panthers last week and walked out with 15.8 fantasy points. This week he has a good match up. Another value up is incoming.
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- Sunday Morning Huddle: Week 15 - December 17, 2017
- Sunday Morning Huddle: Week 14 - December 10, 2017
- Sunday Morning Huddle: Week 13 - December 3, 2017
