FanDuel Bargains: Week Seven

By Peter Howard

Posted on October 21, 2017

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Over the next 17 weeks (and into the post-season), I’ll be highlighting some of the best bargains on the best daily site in the industry, FanDuel.

I won’t suggest any player I don’t think has upside, this slants the suggestions towards Grand Prize Pool (GPP) tournaments. But I try to keep the main suggestions cash game viable as well, unless otherwise stated. Depending on how you construct your lineup their viability can change. The “options” for each position will have lower floors but also offer greater savings. Every play holds risk (until I invent that time machine.)

If you love playing daily fantasy football, remember you can get an Annual Subscription to DLF (a $29.99 value) by just signing up for FanDuel and depositing your initial $10 through this link.

Note: I use 4for4.com’s Adjusted Fantasy Points Allowed (aFPA) to determine defensive rankings and pro-football-reference.com to find raw stats.

Quarterback

Tyrod Taylor, BUF vs TB ($7000)

Line: -3 TB

O/U: off

OPP: TB

The game total is unavailable while we wait to find out if Jameis Winston will play this week. In any case while I think the two “new starters” – listed as other options this week – will be popular, Tyrod Taylor is reasonably priced. He is also a more known talent and he is facing against the second-highest Pass Funnel defense in the league. The Buccaneers have allowed the third-highest number of points to the quarterback position in the NFL according to aFPA. Tyrod’s rushing floor has been muted in the last few weeks (he is only averaging 24 YPG), but he Buccaneers rank 19th in sacks and have had trouble putting pressure on opposing quarterbacks.

Other options: Brett Hundley (6500), C.J. Beathard (6300)

Running Back

Adrian Peterson, ARI @ LAR (in London) ($6300)

Line: -3.5 LAR

O/U: 47

OPP: LAR

I don’t think Adrian Peterson is the best value at the position this week in terms of points per dollar. However, whether to start him or not could be a central questions facing DFS players this week so I thought I’d offer some thoughts. Last week was, at least in part, a result of a perfect matchup and unbelievably positive game script. However, this week Peterson is priced (up) but only as the 20th running back for the week. He is once again walking into a very good matchup. The Rams are the number one rated Run Funnel defense and they are allowing more fantasy points to the position than any other team. Peterson won’t catch passes, but that’s not as much of a concern on FanDuel so long as the game script doesn’t get to out of control. Ultimately, Peterson offers a good mix of price and matchup this week if you need the saving.

Other options: Jay Ajayi (7400), Carlos Hyde (6700), Alvin Kamara (6100)

Wide Receiver

A.J. Green, CIN @ PIT ($8500)

Line: -5.5 PIT

O/U: 40.5

OPP: PIT

I’m not sure if this will be a popular play or not. Just know what you’re getting yourself into though if you like the idea. A.J Green has been held in check for the last couple of years against Steelers. In fact you have to go back to 2014 to find decent production in this matchup. In 2014 Green had 11 receptions, 224 receiving yards and a touchdown in their first meeting, and eight for 82 yards in their second that year. In the end, Green is a stud receiver who can go off at any time and right now he is averaging 10.2 targets a game. In a tough value week, with Antonio Brown in the same game but with a better matchup, Green is an interesting play.

Rishard Matthews, TEN @ CLE ($5500) and Eric Decker, TEN @CLE ($5100)

Line: -6 TEN

O/U: 46.5

OPP: CLE

The Browns have been the best matchup for opposing quarterbacks this year. The Titans have the fourth-highest projected team total on the week and are up against the largest Pass Funnel defense. The majority of that production has gone towards tight end but Delanie Walker has been disappointing in fantasy terms, so far in 2017 despite a 22% target share (second on the team). This makes both Rishard Matthews and Eric Decker interesting value plays this week.

While Matthews has been the leader in target share this season, for the last two weeks Eric Decker has overtaken him in that regard. A two week sample isn’t enough to declare it sticky however. It is also largely influenced by Decker’s big game last week when he had nine targets. Decker also leads the team in red zone targets and targets inside the ten, but the Titans have thrown fewer times in the red zone than any other team through week six. It’s not certain that either player will get shadow coverage, and ultimately I think we can often find value by fading defensive matchups that can be overrated by the field. I’ve gone back and forth over it a few different ways, but in the end I still think both players are strong values in week seven.

Other options: Pierre Garcon (6700), Demaryius Thomas (7100), Kenny Stills (4900)

Tight End

Hunter Henry, LAC vs DEN ($5200)

Line: -1 LAC

O/U: 40

OPP: DEN

The Broncos failed to show up last week coming of their bye week. They also lost Emanuel Sanders to injury. Despite their offensive struggles,the defense is still an elite level unit. The team has funneled passes towards the tight end position as their elite cornerbacks have locked down the rest of the field. As such, they have become the 27th-ranked team against the position in 2017.

Hunter Henry is a talented player who seems to have finally overtaken the likely hall of Fame veteran Antonio Gates in targets the last two weeks. Henry has enjoyed 19.2% of the team’s total targets in weeks five and six. The Chargers have thrown the ball in the red zone more than all but one other team this year and Hunter Henry has 23.8% of the team’s targets inside the ten despite only recently taking over the lead in target share at the position.

Other options: George Kittle (4800), Kyle Rudolph (5400)

FanDuel Bargains: Week Seven