Devil’s Tradevocate
Twitter, polls, and dynasty trades are the perfect combination to see the up to date value of players being traded on the open market. The trade itself shows what one person is willing to trade for another asset, and the poll will indicate how close the trade is based off of “market value”. In this series, Dan Sainio and Nathan Powell will evaluate trades that appeared lopsided (65% or more votes on one side) and one of us will state the case for why it was a lopsided trade while the other takes the devil’s advocate point of view, arguing for the side with lesser amount of vote.
David Johnson and DeAndre Hopkins (74%)
for
Le’Veon Bell, Sammy Watkins, and Chris Thompson (26%)
Why Twitter is right (Dan):
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These types of trades are my favorite. High end assets moving both directions, and plenty of fantasy points to be had. But, Twitter got this one correct, and here is why…
David Johnson is a top three-to-five back in dynasty and although we have lost him for the 2017 season, his value should not shift much if at all. In the last few weeks we have seen Andre Ellington have double digit targets, and Adrian Peterson rush efficiently on the same team DJ left. The touches will remain there, and DJ will remain a top option.
DeAndre Hopkins is looking like the Nuk we all know and love. With college teammate, and rising QB, Deshaun Watson at the helm we have much more to look forward to from a production standpoint. Yes, the TD rate in that offense is a bit flukey, but they are rolling. Nuk should be considered in the elite WR tier without hesitation.
On the other side of this we have another elite back in Le’Veon Bell who has been playing very well, as expected. Likely the RB1 in dynasty at the moment, there are still some issues with Bell’s future. Aside from the suspension risk, we also have to worry about his contract situation and the potential that he finds a new place to play in the future. I don’t think it hurts his value much, but it is something to keep an eye on.
Sammy Watkins was an elite prospect, and did some amazing things as a rookie and sophomore in the NFL, but with injuries and changing teams, he has been only disappointing since. Most still view Watkins as a high end asset, but I think it may be time to slide him down. Chris Thompson has had a true breakout start to the season after producing consistently (even though not highly) over the last couple of years. Splitting touches with Rob Kelley and Samaje Perine certainly hurts CT, but with his explosive play he can survive on limited touches. All said and done, this is DJ and Nuk and it’s not close. Nice work, Twitter.
Devil’s Tradevocate (Nathan):
“Hi, my name is Nathan Powell and I’m a Sammy Watkins truther.”
“Hi Nathan.”
The first thing to analyze in this deal are the running backs, both top four at their position, possibly top two when healthy. With Johnson, you have a 25 year old running back who likely miss most of the 2017 NFL season. Against Bell, also a 25 year old running back, but with both injury and suspension history. The sticking point in this deal is the production now. Johnson may not have the suspension risk that Bell does, but is giving you points in 2017 and contributing toward a championship.
While Sammy Watkins may not be putting up the same points as Hopkins now as he is still getting acclimated to the Rams offense, I think Hopkins and Watkins have similar values and trajectories the rest of their careers. Chris Thompson may not have much dynasty value, but he is a running back getting points and touches now. Role players like Thompson can be important roles to championship fantasy teams.
Two 2018 1sts and Alshon Jeffery (67%)
for
Why Twitter is right (Nathan):
This is one of the easiest ones we’ve covered on Devil’s Tradevocate and I’m surprised the winning percentage is only at 67%. Alshon Jeffery may not be the top five dynasty wide receiver that some once thought he could be, but he is still a legitimate top 15 dynasty wide receiver. The 30 point games won’t be as frequent as they are with Julio Jones, but Jeffery will still produce 13-16 PPR point games. While there is a gap between Julio and Alshon, it certainly isn’t two 2018 firsts. The only way this gets remotely close is if both firsts appear locks to be a top four team.
Devil’s Tradevocate (Dan):
Dear draft pick truthers, calm down. Go take a look at rookie first round hit rates before you vote on this next time. Look, I get it, shiny new toys are great and draft picks only gain value as we get closer to the draft, but we all need to stop over valuing draft picks. Thanks a lot, 2014.
Julio Jones is as elite as they come. With more than 80 catches, 1400 yards, and six TDs over his last three seasons, Julio his strolling into his prime on a great offense with an above average QB to pepper him with targets. Yes, the Falcons have struggled to start the 2017 season, but things take time. A new offense isn’t implemented overnight. Losing Shanahan wasn’t going to be a quick transition. Julio is still Julio, and they know they have to feed him. Look for him to have a monster finish to the season.
On the other side we have draft picks, and a once highly sought-after Alshon Jeffery. I like Alshon. I think he’s good, maybe better than good. But he’s a far shot from elite, and elite assets shouldn’t be had easily. While the firsts are great for adding value to your roster in the short term, the odds of those becoming anything useful are… not great. One of them would need to be a locked in 1.01 for me to even consider this deal.
Kareem Hunt, Evan Engram, and Zay Jones (83%)
for
Allen Robinson, David Njoku, and Derrick Henry (17%)
Why Twitter is right (Dan):
I believe Twitter got this right, but I think it’s much closer than the results show. Let’s start with how horribly wrong I was about Kareem Hunt. This kid is the real deal, and on an offense that will help prop him up even higher. Lock him in as a high end RB1, just after the “elite” tier.
Evan Engram has also been a pleasant surprise, as we don’t normally get to see rookie TEs produce. Nor do we see them as a feature in an offense. Engram is a WR with a TE designation, which makes it pretty easy to put him towards the top of the TE value chart. Zay Jones is a nice stash type added to this deal, with the potential for some early production as well. As a highly thought of prospect coming into the NFL, Zay was drafted early in the second round, so the draft capital is certainly there. Hopefully we get to see him start clicking with Tyrod.
On the other side of this deal we have the IR-designated Allen Robinson, who struggled in 2016 with the horri-awful Blake Bortles. The best thing going for ARob is that he’s (hopefully) going to be playing outside of JAX in the future. I still struggle a bit with Robinson, as I think the garbage time wasn’t leaned on heavily enough when considering his value. David Njoku has been another solid TE in this 2017 draft class, and I don’t think he should be valued too far behind Engram. I think we can consider that close to a wash. Finally, we get to talk about everyone’s favorite: Derrick Henry. As intriguing as they come, Henry still can’t find a way to take carries away from the old and crusty DeMarco Murray unless he’s injured. Henry has some explosive plays, but unless he’s getting a two or three step head start, he’s getting buried. I want him to succeed, because we haven’t seen someone with that size and athletic ability. However, I think his lack of agility will continue to haunt him, and may be a two down back once Murray is gone. Congrats on getting another one right, Twitter.
Devil’s Tradevocate (Nathan):
Ah, the yearly tradition of going bananas over a rookie with a hot start to his career and then valuing him like he will never slow down. Kareem Hunt is a great NFL running back, but that doesn’t mean any trade with him on the side is an easy winner. Allen Robinson is still a top 10-12 dynasty wide receiver and he likely will be playing with a quarterback not named Blake Bortles when he next steps on the field. I have loved Evan Engram’s start to his career, but Njoku has also shown enough promise to where you can still consider the two close in dynasty value.
Zay Jones and Derrick Henry have each had their own hype cycles, and as a person with Derrick Henry on many teams, it’s frustrating to own a player who can’t hit their true potential without an injury occurring. With the trade of Sammy Watkins and injury to Jordan Matthews, Zay Jones has had ample opportunity to get on the field, and he hasn’t done much so far in his rookie season. I’m not calling Zay Jones a bust, but the gap between Henry and Jones is bigger than the gap between Hunt and Robinson. I also think there is an argument to be had to still have Robinson over Hunt.
for
Stefon Diggs and Will Fuller (21%)
Why Twitter is right (Nathan):
He’s Odell Beckham Jr. He’s one of the best young wide receivers in NFL history and one season ending injury doesn’t make him worth less than a very good wide receiver and a high variance young wide receiver.
Devil’s Tradevocate (Dan):
You’re right, Nathan. He is, in fact, Odell Beckham Jr. He has absolutely had the best start to an NFL career at the WR position, and the injury shouldn’t change his valuation. This trade isn’t wrong because Odell should be worth less, it’s wrong because Diggs and Fuller should be worth more.
Odell is still a top five asset no matter which way you slice it. There’s no denying that. But Diggs has every ounce of potential that OBJ has, and we’ve been fortunate to see a little glimpse of it this year. I don’t think the gap from OBJ to Diggs is all that great, so with the emergence of Will Fuller, I think we have a close trade here. Fuller has done nothing but catch TDs. He caught TDs in college, and he keeps doing it as a pro. Fuller has legit WR2 upside, but likely falls in that WR3/4 valuation. For me, that’s the difference here, and I think this deal should be viewed as closer to 50-50.
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