Timing is Everything

Eric Hardter

Please note that this article was written prior to week six. Some statistics will have changed based on new data from the weekend.

When it comes to dynasty football, I tend to fall on the more conservative side of things. I’m not much of an ageist, and believe that the current season is always more important than the next (and the one after that). I care a lot more about fantasy value than I do about dynasty value.

With that said, the ADP effect is a very real thing. It can be the driving force behind trade value (even if it’s more of an indirect correlation), and remains one of the first and foremost tools we dynasty owners reference when valuating our players. To completely ignore it, while relying solely on box scores would be a mistake.

I think there’s a way to leverage both of these ideals. Expanding on this line of thinking, I believe we can leverage both current production and future value to our advantage – if we’re bold enough to make the right moves. In other words, it’s possible to buy and sell in a manner such that we replace “valued” players who might sneakily be on the downturn with ascending players who are not only producing now, but could climb the ADP ranks in the coming months, potentially surpassing their peers.

It’s with that in mind that I suggest the pairs below, selling one while buying the other. Bear in mind I’m not recommending one for one trades – again, ADP value does matter, and we should leverage it to our advantage whenever possible. But making larger deals involving these players as the principal pieces could prove to be smart investing.

With that said, I’d advise you to consider the following scenarios.

Amari Cooper, WR OAK, and DeVante Parker, WR MIA

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I’ve recently provided my opinion on Cooper as a reliable fantasy asset. In short, he’s not, but the dynasty masses haven’t budged, bestowing upon him an unwarranted ADP of 6.8, as the eighth overall player in startup drafts. Perhaps more galling is the argument that it’s only been “a bad four-week stretch,” which simply isn’t true. Cooper poured on the raw stats in his first couple years in the league, but it was solely volume based, as opposed to being done efficiently. It’s true that volume is the biggest predictor of fantasy scoring, but it’s also fair to posit that inefficiency will breed fewer looks moving forward. I believe he’ll have to severely step it up to maintain his current lofty ranking.

I’ve also touched on Parker in the off-season, calling him a dynasty unicorn – a young, former first round pick who improved from year one to year two, but somehow lost value. Now he’s back to being the 34th player drafted according to the ADP, with a value of 35.5. He’s jumped five spots since September, and 12 since August. In short, we have an ascendant player, who in what amounts to two fewer games has out-produced Cooper by six receptions and over 100 yards, despite being on a significantly worse offense. It’s not unfathomable to assert he continues to do so, and approaches (or passes) Parker in value as the season wears on.

Martavis Bryant, WR PIT, and JuJu Smith-Schuster, WR PIT

Similar to Cooper above, another myth that has propagated throughout the dynasty community is that Bryant is a consistent and high-end performer. In reality, he only had four 80+ yard games in 2015, with six under 50 yards. So far this year he has one game with 91 yards, and four others below 50, and he’s failed to corral 50% of his targets. Regardless, his ADP stands at an unreasonable 37.0, as the 36th overall player.

Smith-Schuster falls further down the list as the 100th overall player (ADP = 101.0). Despite having 10 fewer targets, JuJu is only 44 yards behind his teammate, with one additional touchdown and two more first downs. He’s also increased his yardage in every game, and has begun to show why he was once one of the most sought-after devy prospects. The cherry on top? Smith-Schuster still isn’t even old enough to legally drink. Quarterback Ben Roethlisberger has hinted at giving Bryant a bit of “a break” this week, which could be a harbinger of things to come. I’d view the rookie as the more integral Pittsburgh wideout moving forward.

Jordan Reed, TE WSH, and Evan Engram, TE NYG (or George Kittle, TE SF)

We all know the book on Reed. When healthy he has the ability to be one of the best tight ends in the business, but unfortunately he’s only been able to play in 49 out of 68 games (72%) in his career. He’s already missed one game in 2017, and has been hobbled since the off-season. Amazingly, his per-target stats haven’t even matched the pace of teammate Vernon Davis, as Reed has turned 19 targets into a mere 105 scoreless yards. I try not to be an alarmist when it comes to age and injury, but it’s not farfetched to question if Reed is already on the downturn of his career.

Engram, meanwhile, is functioning as the PPR TE10 on the season, meaning he’s on pace to accomplish something Reed nearly did – become the first rookie tight end since Rob Gronkowski to finish as a tier-one option at the position. With the recent decimation to the Giants receiving corps, this goal has become imminently more attainable. If Reed fails to come back strong, or misses even more time, it would become easy to visualize Engram surpassing his divisional foe.

I’d also like to mention Kittle, who is currently the PPR TE17. He’s caught 17 of 23 looks, and on the season is the third-most targeted 49ers pass catcher. I don’t think he’ll surpass Reed in ADP, or even necessarily approach him, but he’s clearly on an upward trajectory and could finish the year as the second or third most valuable of the rookie tight ends.

Jay Ajayi, RB MIA, and Alvin Kamara, RB NO

I don’t even really dislike Ajayi, but whether it be due to falling into the quicksand that is the Miami offense, or because he’s just not quite as good as we had hoped, he’s off to a molasses slow start in 2017. Though he’s played in one fewer game than the majority of his peers, he’s currently stuck as the PPR RB40, with only 35.4 PPR points. To put that into perspective, there have already been nine individual weekly performances over 30.0 PPR points in the 2017 season. Ajayi is at a poor 3.4 YPC on the season, and has only caught seven passes over four games. He’s not helping you win now, and at a fickle position, his value could suffer accordingly.

Freshman Kamara, on the other hand, has been a revelation. His 20 points per reception alone are 56% of the way to Ajayi’s seasonal total, and the rookie has looked good in both the run and pass games. With the recent departure of Adrian Peterson to the Cardinals, Kamara could pick up a few extra touches per game, boosting his already considerable floor. He’s tied to one of the best offenses in the league, and one that has always featured their running backs in the passing attack. It’s easy to see his value continuing to increase.

Donte Moncrief, WR IND/Jordan Matthews, WR BUF, and The Field

I’m not sure I’ve ever seen two more consistently underwhelming options continue to receive the benefit of the doubt and have excuses made for them. Maybe, just maybe, they’re not that good? With respective ADPs of 64.5 and 92.0, both should be traded for probably the next 20-30 guys behind them, or more. Get out while the gettin’ is (amazingly still) good!

Follow me on Twitter @EDH_27

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eric hardter