The DLF Dynasty Trading Post: October

TheFFGhost

Welcome to the second Dynasty Trading Post in what will be a regular column here at Dynasty League Football. This column is intended to track which players or assets increasing, or even decreasing, in value, allowing our readers to adjust their sights and values accordingly. With the first six weeks of NFL regular season football almost completed, let’s jump right in and see where the fantasy community are moving assets around.

Injury Bug

Injuries are sadly a part of both the fantasy and NFL game and this season has already given us some big major ones to deal with. We’ve seen top fantasy performers David Johnson, Odell Beckham Jr. and Allen Robinson all forced to miss significant parts of this young season. Meanwhile, rookies Dalvin Cook and Corey Davis have also suffered injuries which have severely cut short their rookie seasons. Within the past month Cook’s trade volume has spiked, increasing by 84.4%. Meanwhile, Davis’ volume has remained fairly constant with him being traded in 1.2% of all dynasty leagues monitored by the Dynasty Trade Finder tool.

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Performance Anxiety

Trades involving players who have seen their statistical output decrease this season have risen dramatically. Amari Cooper has been involved in 173.3% more trades over the past 30 days than he was involved in a month prior. With a heated debate swirling around talk that his production over the past few weeks could be his new “normal”, frightened dynasty owners appear to be moving Cooper rather than getting stuck holding the bag. Meanwhile, speculators are gobbling up this perceived opportunity to add value to their squads. Elsewhere, Joe Mixon and Mike Evans have seen similar spikes in their trade volume with the amount of Mixon trades increasing by 141.9% and the number of trades involving Evans inflating by 113.3%.

Biggest Percentage Fluctuation

Last month Corey Davis saw the biggest percentage fluctuation in trades month over month, with a 94.4% bump in trades involving the rookie wide receiver. This month that 94.4% is dwarfed by a 290.5% growth in trades involving another wide receiver, you guessed it, Odell Beckham Jr.. Over the past 30 days the number of trades involving Beckham have grown from 21 to 82, meaning he was a component in 2.6% of all tracked dynasty leagues in the past month.

Many factors are likely at play in these transactions. First, competitors are looking to stay in the hunt this season and holding on to a player in Beckham, that they likely invested a great deal of capital in acquiring, makes the likelihood of winning it all this season much less likely. Second, owners who feel that they are unlikely to make a run this year are capitalizing on acquiring an elite talent for a reduced price. You’ve likely been either an owner who receives, or sends, offers for a player soon after they’ve been injured. It’s an unpleasant, and almost ghoulish, part of playing the dynasty game but is also an aspect unlikely to ever go away. Finally, some owners may be legitimately scared that Beckham will not return to the dominance he once had prior to his injury. While I personally believe those fears to be overblown given the fact that this is a bone break, and not the tearing of any tendon or ligament, I’m also not a doctor so my medical opinion means very little in this debate.

Future Draft Pick Outlook

Last month the growth in trades involving 2019 picks outpaced the growth of trades involving 2018 picks, on strictly a percentage basis. This month that trend has reversed and we have returned a a more “normal” status quo state with 2018 picks again growing in popularity, if even just slightly. Trades involving 2018 first round picks saw an increase of 32.5% over the prior month, ever so slightly edging out trades involving 2019 first round picks, which grew by 31.6%, as the most popular draft pick component of a trade. In terms of sheer volume, 2018 second round picks were far and away the most traded commodity in all trades, becoming the first commodity to surpass the 1000+ trade mark with 1001 trades involving a second-round pick over the past 30 days. This is a growth of 9.5% over the past 30 days, while 2019 second-round picks grew in popularity by 18.4% over that same time frame. Overall, 2018 third-round picks are the second most traded commodity, accounting for 848 trades, but their popularity has shrunk month over month by -4.9%, the only draft pick over the past 30 days to see a decline in popularity.

He Who Is Untradeable

The Dynasty Trade Finder tool is a useful tool for more than finding who is hot on the trading block lately. The tool can also highlight players who you may want to hold on to or who simply aren’t easily obtained. This month the trade market on Todd Gurley’s became ice cold. The number of trades involving Gurley decreased by -53.2% from 62 trades the month prior to only 29 occurring within the past month. Much of this decrease is centered on just how well Gurley is playing as of late, ranking third in rushing yards and tied for second with the most rushing touchdowns. Most current owners are likely to be holding onto Gurley while they take advantage of this spike in production while owners who would like to obtain him are likely walking away from trade negotiations with sticker shock. Gurley is the least tradeable player in this month’s report and if his production continues to stay at the current pace, it is likely he’ll be towards the bottom of the list again next month too.

The Raw Numbers

For those interested in the number of trades tracked by the Dynasty Trade Finder involving the top 40 ranked players on each side of the ball and trades involving draft picks, here’s the data you’re looking for:

Trades Involving Offense Players Only: 1263 unique trades occurred in the last 30 days while 1017 unique trades occurred in the prior 30 days.

Trades Involving Draft Picks: 2260 unique trades occurred in the last 30 days while 2315 unique trades occurred in the prior 30 days.

The next edition of the Dynasty Trading Post should be very interesting as we’ll get a chance to see how the community deals trades with the upcoming bye weeks. Happy trading everyone!

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