More than a Thielen

Eric Hardter Posted On October 4, 2017

Please note that this article was written prior to week four. Thielen is currently the PPR WR11, and third in the league in yards behind Stefon Diggs and Antonio Brown. He’s tied for seventh in the league in receptions.

The thing about Adam Thielen is he’s good at football.

When valuing the standout Minnesota wide receiver, it should be that simple, right? We’re talking about a relatively young player (he turned 27 in August) who’s arguably just now entering his prime. He started off slowly during his first two years in the league (20 receptions for 281 yards and one touchdown), but last year in a third-year breakout he led his team in receiving yards and had the second-most touchdowns, despite being third in the pecking order when it came to targets. Incredibly, he had only six fewer first downs than tight end Kyle Rudolph despite receiving forty fewer looks! For his efforts, the Vikings rewarded him with a four-year, $19.2 million contract ($11 million guaranteed), which is starting to look like a steal.

Through three games in the 2017 season, Thielen holds a slight edge on superstar teammate Stefon Diggs in terms of receptions and yards, though the former Terp has four touchdowns to Thielen’s zero. We can expect this to normalize, however, as Thielen scored once every 20.7 targets previously in his career. Conversely, Diggs’ pace of a touchdown every 6.3 targets is far above his previous career average of a score ever 27.9 targets. Regardless, the receiver duo has rendered Rudolph and former first round pick Laquon Treadwell as afterthoughts.

Compared to his peers across the league, Thielen is more than acquitting himself. He’s checking in as the PPR WR8, is tied for the seventh-most receptions in the league, and trails only the all-world Antonio Brown in receiving yards. ESPN Fantasy’s preview for week four, which states “Thielen has been something of a disappointment to fantasy owners this year,” is beyond laughable.

Advanced metrics have been kind as well. In 2016, Thielen trailed only former Rams and current Browns receiver Kenny Britt in my Adjusted Improvement Ratio (AIR) metric. By virtue of scoring 21.3% of his team’s PPR points on only 15.6% of the targets, he was able to post a mind-bogglingly impressive AIR value of 1.363. Similarly, Thielen again trailed only Britt in terms of the First Down Ratio (FDR), with 21.1% of the team’s first downs on the same percentage of targets (FDR = 1.346). Through four seasons, he’s averaging an insane 10.5 yards per target across 148 looks. In summation, he stuffed the fantasy stat sheet, was an incredibly good “real life” football player, and did it all in an extremely efficient manner.

And yet here we are talking about a guy with an ADP of 98.8, according to the September ADP (I understand this may well jump some in October, but likely not enough). This makes him the 50th overall receiver, and the 100th player overall. He’s surrounded by players such as Marvin Jones, Jeremy Maclin, John Brown, CJ Prosise, and Brandon Marshall, among others.

So what gives?

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For starters, dynasty owners are slow to adjust to so-called “late breakouts.” Following his impressive 2014 season in Denver, Emmanuel Sanders moved up to an ADP of 42.3 (September, 2015 ADP data). Similarly, Doug Baldwin’s ADP following his 2015 season only climbed to 54.0 (September, 2016 ADP data). The numbers look good, sure, but this is a pair of PPR WR1 players who were lasting until the mid-fourth and mid-fifth round, respectively. Sanders has since compiled two more 1,000-yard seasons, and his current ADP has actually dropped to 62.5. Baldwin finished 2016 with another PPR WR1 campaign and has been able to climb up to an ADP of 24.8, but it took two elite years for him to only nearly crack the second round of dynasty startups.

Do dynasty owners simply hate fantasy points? I don’t think that’s the case at all, but I believe there’s another factor in play. In the minds of many, “unexpected” points are less valuable than “anticipated” points. What do I mean by that?

Players who seemingly come out of nowhere to put forward strong fantasy performances can actually be less valuable than perceived future studs. In other words, even if a young player hasn’t accomplished anything, ownership of a “sexy” player leads to the belief that said asset will appreciate in value. Compare that to guys like Baldwin, Sanders, and Thielen – owners become worried that the jar will pop off of the lightning in a bottle, and this fear manifests itself into both a diminished ADP and trade value.

Again, Thielen is the perfect example here. As recently as August of this year, there were only four players between he and his teammate Treadwell. Yes, the very same Treadwell who had 89 fewer targets, 68 fewer receptions, 952 fewer yards, five fewer touchdowns, and 43 fewer first downs in 2016. And while Treadwell has improved his numbers this season (it would be next to impossible not to), he still only has five receptions for 42 scoreless yards. He’s certainly worth owning, but the brief crack in their August ADP values has remained a chasm in the scoresheet.

With all that said, I understand that not every “working class hero” fantasy player works out. If and when that happens, said player typically loses value at a faster rate than a highly-drafted compatriot would. Given the prevalent “buy and sell” mentality amongst many dynasty owners, it’s easy to play Devil’s Advocate and suggest players like Thielen will always make for excellent sell-high candidates.

Of course, it takes two to tango – in this case, what does “sell high” really mean if you can’t find a quality trade partner? Judging by the trades in the past week, when recency bias should be at its highest for Thielen, I’m not seeing much of an impetus to act on that possibility:

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Let’s analyze, moving down the list:

Thielen is able to draw in a seventh round running back and a couple of late round picks.
Thielen and a second round pick netted Chicago’s pass-catching running back (I love Tarik Cohen, but still…)
This is actually a very good return for Thielen and Cohen.
Ditto. I mean, whew…
The pick is nice, but it will become worse with the team’s addition of Thielen and Willie Snead. Jones and Gerald Everett are largely throw-ins.
The value here is decent, although Father Time will eventually catch up with Jason Witten.
Thielen is more of a “throw-in” to this deal.
The new Thielen owner committed larceny.

By my (admittedly subjective) analysis, Thielen returned good to great value in two deals, comparable value in a third, and was a throw-in in the fourth. In the other four, I believe the team that gave him away was on the losing side. Simply put, dynasty owners aren’t treating him as he’s a viable long-term option.

If that’s what I’m getting in return, Thielen will stand pat in my starting lineup, as we have enough evidence to suggest he will continue his prolific ways. He put up good numbers last year on a mediocre passing offense (the Vikings were 16th last year in PPR points provided to pass catchers, with 917.6), and is doing so again this year with the immortal Case Keenum at the helm. His advanced metrics were and continue to be elite. When it comes to affordable fantasy production, quite simply, you can’t do more than a Thielen.

Find me on Twitter @EDH_27

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Eric Hardter

Contributor at Dynasty League Football

Eric is a Boston College chemistry grad school survivor with a minor in dynasty football. He prefers to utilize both statistics and sarcasm whenever possible, believes in process over results and thinks "Hot Takes" are the scourge of the fantasy landscape.