Sunday Morning Huddle: Week Four
Let’s face it, there’s an enormous amount of information out there on Sunday mornings. We’re not going to waste your time by repeating the news and notes about who’s in or out this week, since that’s really not what you visit us for. We’re also not going to do another article on starts or sits this week – we already have the personalized lineup advice for you on the premium content. Again, there are 100 places you can go for that, so no reason to repeat ourselves or others.
The Sunday Morning Huddle goes through each game and states what we’re looking to see from a dynasty perspective. One player will be picked from each team who has dynasty value tied to the game – players at a pivot point where their value could increase or decrease based on opportunity and performance.
Way Too Early Game
New Orleans at Miami in London
What an unusual situation for Willie Snead to make his return in. His role is questionable as he returns – will it be a gradual ease in or will he get a full workload? Coach speak would indicate that he will be eased in, but who trusts coaches? Throw in that it’s a road game, involving crossing the Atlantic, and I truly don’t know what to make of it. That being said, Snead’s value is tied to his role, so we want to see him return to it sooner than later.
Double digit weekly targets is a reality for Jarvis Landry with Jay Cutler at the helm. I questioned whether it would continue, but it has for two straight weeks. I think Landry has a very safe floor that is not fully reflected in his value – likely due to his lacking ceiling. Either way, if he keeps rolling with this many targets, he keeps needing little value bumps in my opinion.
Early Games
Buffalo at Atlanta
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Generally speaking, we don’t like to judge rookie receivers for poor rookie outings. I think that is too generalized, and for Zay Jones his lack of production is hurting his dynasty value right now. This team has very little in the way of weapons at wide receiver, but he is struggling to even get involved in the offense. When Sammy Watkins was traded away, this is not what the fantasy community envisioned. This game script should be super negative, meaning more throws from Buffalo. Is this the week he gets involved?
As noted, this game script is slated to be very much in Atlanta’s favor. Tevin Coleman’s role has been significantly scaled back this season as the clear backup to Devonta Freeman. If the Falcons get way up in this game, I want to see if Freeman gets yanked from the game and they insert Coleman. If they do, I stand by my previous assertion that Coleman is overvalued this year, and going forward due to questionable role on his team.
Pittsburgh at Baltimore
I honestly have a trio of players I want to write about, so I’ll choose the one that’s moving up. JuJu Smith-Schuster is starting to carve out a role for himself in this offense, and that’s a good thing as a rookie. I also wanted to touch on the tight ends Vance McDonald and Jesse James, because they haven’t been particularly involved outside of James’ week one explosion. I am thinking that could be, in part, due to the increasing role for JuJu. The role of all three is in the short to intermediate range, so it could be a zero-sum game situation. Keep an eye on him this week, he could be moving up.
This offense is a dumpster right now for the Ravens. I try not to bring DFS into this article too much, but it does provide good insight for where to look for the scope of this article – players with their value in the crosshairs over a one week sample. On DraftKings, no Ravens player is priced over $4900, and the high priced one is Joe Flacco – lower than heroes like Jacoby Brissett and Case Keenum. That is abyssmal, bargain basement pricing for the whole team. For reference, a great fantasy player like Le’Veon Bell costs $8700 this week. Until Joe proves he can lift up this offense, downgrade him especially, but this team as a whole. It is not guaranteed that they rebound.
Carolina at New England
Don’t look now (or do, I won’t stop you), but Devin Funchess is outscoring Kelvin Benjamin for the Panthers. He also has accumulated more targets. If you have been ignoring Funchess up to this point, I don’t blame you. But it’s time we recognize his role is ascending and that, in conjunction with Benjamin’s descending role due to injuries, etc., indicate we need to keep an eye on Funch against a team that can’t defend very well right now.
I enjoy scenarios I envision as a rock meeting a hard place. Cam Newton hasn’t really been able to get the Panther offense humming, even against a weak Saints defense. The Patriots Defense hasn’t really been able to stop opponents this season. Now, I’m not writing about the Patriots Defense as a starting position, but rather that if the Panthers see good production in this game, it’s time to do two things: upgrade your players moving forward when they face the Patriots, and upgrade the Patriots offense as a whole because they won’t be able to let up pressure due to a leaky defense.
Cincinnati at Cleveland
Through three weeks, Joe Mixon leads his team in touches by a wide margin – 42 touches to second place Jeremy Hill’s 22 touches. His touches were in line with the crowd at running back through two weeks, but he exploded for 21 touches in week three. Now he gets to face a weak Cleveland team and he is involved in both the running and passing games. To be honest, this has breakout written all over it. Let’s see if Mixon can live up to that expectation or if he falls short.
The offensive skill position players for the Browns leave a lot to be desired, so I’ll turn my eye to DeShone Kizer. He looks pretty decent in the early goings for his career. While it isn’t fair to expect this of him so soon, what we really need to see is him lifting up the level of play from the team around him. I saw it a little bit when he had Corey Coleman on the field, but I want to see it without him. Can he make this game competitive?
Los Angeles Rams at Dallas
Oh, hi there Sammy Watkins. Raise your hand if you were concerned about Sammy’s fantasy value when he moved from Buffalo to the Rams. I think those concerns have to be erased. Not only did he break out last week, but his quarterback, Jared Goff, has a perfect passer rating when targeting Watkins. Through three weeks. What even is that? Trust the connection, trust the talent. Hopefully this role continues for this promising still-young receiver.
With suspension rumors still swirling, Ezekiel Elliot gets a tasty matchup with a Rams defense that is porous against running backs. A good litmus test for dynasty player values is if a player can do what they are expected to when they are expected to, even if those expectations are lofty. Going into a possible suspension, ending his playing time for early 2017 on a high note will be a boon to sustaining his value through any missed time.
Detroit at Minnesota
So far this season, Matthew Stafford has been playing on another level relative to the rest of his career to date. Lacking Calvin Johnson as a crutch, it appears to me that he had to learn how to quarterback properly in the NFL and it is doing wonders for his skill set and ability to raise up the level of play of those around him, like we want to see from Kizer in Cleveland. Minnesota is no pushover defense, so I want to see him continue to play at a high level in a tough spot to justify moving his value up the quarterback rankings.
Similar to my reasoning for Zeke above, Dalvin Cook has been playing extremely well to date and the Lions haven’t been great at defending against opposing running backs. Given Cook’s stranglehold on touches out of the backfield, he should be the beneficiary and produce today. If he doesn’t, it will give me pause about his valuation. If he lives up to expectations, then we keep him where he is, with an arrow pointing up.
Tennessee at Houston
One veteran wide receiver I have not yet picked for this article series is Eric Decker. He has been at least involved in his offense, but this simply isn’t the kind of role or production that you likely paid for when you got Decker. This is not in line with his career to date on other teams, and also not in line with expectations on the Titans. Clearly playing a role lesser than Rishard Matthews, we need to see Decker get on the same page as Marcus Mariota more often or we need to move him down.
With Deshaun Watson impressing as a rookie so far, I’m turning my eyes towards another rookie – D’Onta Foreman. His role has been growing in recent weeks and he is producing. It is clear that he is behind Lamar Miller, but it is equally apparent Miller is not producing up to expectations. I think this is one curve you should get ahead of and buy in on Foreman before his role grows. Let’s hope his play this weekend backs up that take.
Jacksonville at New York Jets
To be clear, Leonard Fournette looks like stud but his value is fairly stable. Marqise Lee, on the other hand, is still undervalued relative to his role, draft pedigree, and production. This is kind of like Jamison Crowder was for me in 2016. I’ll keep writing him up until his value is where it deserves to be in my opinion. I really don’t think you want to miss out on Marqise at his current price.
With Matt Forte out this week, Bilal Powell is set to get a big workload. In the past, when he gets a big workload, he produces. This team needs to look to the future and I think if Powell blows up here, they need to think about riding him for the season. I don’t think he will have a great ceiling, but if he continues to be involved in negative game scripts, that will help. I’ll hedge a bit here, and mention that this could also be the beginning of the emergence for Elijah McGuire.
Late Games
San Francisco at Arizona
I am a math and data guy. I’ve done a lot of forecasting and trend identification in my career, and I love spotting trends with predictive value. Named the starting slot receiver late in the off-season, Trent Taylor has seen his workload increase and his receptions have increased each week this season, culminating in three receptions for 32 yards and a touchdown in week three. The rest of this offense is appropriately valued for now, but with continued improvement this kid could deserve a higher value.
While this week has good matchups for the Arizona receivers, I find it difficult to project long term value for them based on weekly performances. Instead, I’ll point out that Chris Johnson looks like he could be a factor on competing dynasty teams this year. After having zero touches in week one, he now leads the Cardinals in touches after piling up 24 over the past two weeks. This game script figures to be very positive for the Cardinals, and the 49ers just got crushed by Todd Gurley. I’m connecting some dots here.
Philadelphia at Los Angeles Chargers
As I discussed earlier, cost on DraftKings can be a good indicator of happenings on a week to week basis. Zach Ertz ($6300) is reaching Rob Gronkowski ($6600) territory and I don’t believe his dynasty value is catching up fast enough. Going back to last year Ertz has been absolutely on fire and he doesn’t look to be slowing down. His connection with young quarterback Carson Wentz is real, and he is a featured player. No Jordan Matthews? More Ertz. No Sproles? More Ertz. Move him up.
Going out on a limb here, but Tyrell Williams has led the Chargers in routes run this season and it hasn’t translated into production yet. We know the man can play after watching him last year, and the Eagles secondary has some serious deficiencies to it. My excellent skills of dot connecting tell me that if Williams is going to get rolling in 2017, this might be the week for it. Or, it could come later after Keenan Allen gets injured. *Ducks for cover*
New York Giants at Tampa Bay
Largely written off heading into this season after the acquisition of Brandon Marshall and the drafting of Evan Engram, Sterling Shepard has done nothing but impress when given the opportunity this year. Coming off of an unsustainable touchdown rate last season, he took a long one to the house in week three after leading the receivers in receptions in week one with Odell Beckham sidelined. I think he has room to move back up in value as long as this offense does not tank.
Cameron Brate took a big value knock when OJ Howard was drafted by the Buccaneers, but consider this: he is massively outscoring Howard so far this year and he is a free agent in 2018. It is thoroughly possible that he plays as the passing tight end to own in Tampa this year then moves somewhere next year to be a featured tight end in free agency. In a nice matchup with the Giants, it’s time to start thinking about this possibility and his potential for long term value.
Oakland at Denver
Washington does not have a killer defense, but it sure looked like it last week as Derek Carr appeared lost. Add in that the Broncos defense actually is killer, and I have some concerns about the floor for this Raiders offense. The team will play to Carr’s level, and his floor has just been exposed. My biggest concern is that perhaps something showed up on film that Washington did that will allow more defenses to shut down the Raiders. I’m still high on the team and Carr, but now I have some reservations. Look for signs of a rebound or to see if they have been exposed.
This might be a record number of quarterback selections for me. Trevor Siemian has looked fantastic for most of the time this year despite his lacking pedigree. That being said, he has beaten out a first round selection two years in a row in Paxton Lynch. He also has one of the NFL’s stronger supporting casts when you factor in a strong defense, and a soft matchup against the Raiders. With another solid game, I think Siemian should be valued similarly to how Alex Smith has been the past few years.
Sunday Night
Indianapolis at Seattle
Last week, Jacoby Brissett (another quarterback, what?!) showed he can hang in the NFL on a non-Patriots team. Now he gets to travel to Seattle for a primetime game. Ouch. I don’t have high hopes, but if he continues to look like he belongs, then his dynasty value will simmer even after he is back to backup duties.
This game is projected to be all Seattle. In games like this, I look for two things: does the quarterback take care of the ball, and what running back gets the touches. So far this season, it looks like rookie Chris Carson is going to be the man in the backfield for Seattle, and that means that he should put up some good production. If that doesn’t happen, time to temper expectations. This should be a ceiling type of game.
Monday Night
Washington at Kansas City
While he will never be featured, this team simply looks better when the get the ball to Chris Thompson. I don’t believe his weekly output will be consistent, but if the team continues to find creative ways to get him the ball and making plays, his value needs to be up around where Theo Riddick is generally valued in PPR leagues. He sure is fun to watch, just like Riddick was when he was busy breaking out a few years ago.
There are so many games with big spreads this weekend, I really hope they don’t all play out this way. Kansas City is projected to be the big favorite, and that sets up for yet another monster day for Kareem Hunt. He is setting statistical benchmarks that are in line with hall of famers, and the last time I analyzed a guy who was doing things like that, it was Stefon Diggs in his rookie season. We need to take note, and acknowledge that Hunt’s ceiling is overall top running back in dynasty. He isn’t there yet, but continuing this can put him there.
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- Sunday Morning Huddle: Week 15 - December 17, 2017
- Sunday Morning Huddle: Week 14 - December 10, 2017
- Sunday Morning Huddle: Week 13 - December 3, 2017
