Dynasty Capsule: Minnesota Vikings

Izzy Elkaffas

Every year we give our premium content members a team-by-team, player-by-player look at the NFL season that was. The coverage will be in-depth, but because the Dynasty Capsule series begins immediately after the regular season, we won’t use it to discuss free agency or the draft. Come see us in early May once Mr. Irrelevant is off the board for another 32-article series giving you the same detailed discussion you’ll see below.

Buckle up dynasty fans, because you’re about to be reminded why our motto is, “There is no off-season.”

Quarterback

Sam Bradford

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If on August 29th someone would have told me Sam Bradford would be on the Vikings roster by September 3rd and their starter weeks 2-17, I would have given 1,000,000-1 odds. A week later I would have been forced to rob several banks across the Midwest to pay my debts. Fortunately, I never had to make that decision. On top of that, my Vikings ripped off five straight, were the last undefeated team, and had Super Bowl buzz. Unfortunately, they completely fell off like the Sphinx’s nose.

The silver lining was Bradford’s performance despite five different starting left tackles, a total of 12 different starting offensive linemen, and an offensive coordinator change from Norv Turner to Pat Shurmur mid-season. Based on his injury history, it’s a miracle Bradford stayed healthy and played in every game after taking over for Shaun Hill.

Bradford completed an NFL record 71.6% of his passes, a majority of which seemed to travel only about two yards, but he actually managed a career best 7.02 yards per attempt. In addition to that, he also set career-highs in passing yards (3,877), TD/INT ratio (4:1), QBR (63.0) and passer rating (99.3). While that sounds great and all, the truth is Bradford came in as the QB23 in total fantasy scoring and QB25 in average.

Simply put, Bradford will never finish as a top-12 scoring quarterback and has little value in standard leagues. With a healthy line and some development from Laquon Treadwell, he could be used in a pinch. That said, the ground game was the worst in the league and Bradford still had a difficult time creating fantasy value. If you’re in a Superflex or 2QB league he’s a starter who can likely be had for cheap relative to the prices of the signal callers of his ilk.

Teddy Bridgewater

Vikings across our sorry, frigid and boring state collectively gasped on August 30th when Bridgewater went down with a devastating knee injury. The rumors were swirling and the news funnelled in as an ACL tear. It was devastating to the 2016 season, but it’s just another season as a Minnesota sports fan. A couple of days passed and we heard our franchise signal caller could lose his leg. I googled “NFL QB Super Bowl starter with one leg” – my search came up empty. Finally, the verdict came in and Teddy tore his ACL and dislocated his knee cap, an injury that could threaten his career and potentially set the franchise back a handful of years. The news recently is that Bridgewater will almost certainly miss the 2017 season. That would leave Sam Bradford and Taylor Heinicke as the only two contracted players.

The Vikings will have to address the position via free agency and could even be forced to re-sign Shaun Hill as an inexpensive backup that knows the offense. As for Bridgewater’s future as a fantasy asset, it’s bleak at best. He’s best left on waivers unless you’re in a Superflex or 2QB league.

Taylor Heinicke

“A small framed rookie out of Old Dominion, Heinicke is a career third string quarterback at best. The Vikings will bring in competition this off-season. If Heinicke is on your team, he’s either your son, brother, cousin or friend.” – This was my 2016 capsule breakdown of Heinicke, and he still has very little chance of ever being fantasy relevant in any format.

Shaun Hill

Hill started week one of the 2016 season when Bridgewater went down. He proved to be no more than backup quality. He has a decent chance of being re-signed with Bridgewater facing a lost 2017 season.

Running Back

Adrian Peterson

Peterson was well on his way to making Trent Richardson look like Jim Brown before going down with a torn meniscus in the Vikings home opener at US Bank Stadium. Naturally with Peterson, he returned early from surgery and suited up against the Colts in week 15. He lasted a solid six carries before injuring his groin, and was shut down for the season. He finished 2016 with measly 37 carries for 72 yards, which equates to Richardson-esque efficiency.

Peterson is due $18 million in 2017 and I’ll stick my tongue on a frozen metal pole if the Vikings bring back the soon-to-be 32 year old future Hall of Famer. The Vikings may approach Peterson to take a pay cut, but my hunch says Peterson doesn’t accept and is outright cut. He was asked about possible destinations and he brought up the Giants, Buccaneers, and Texans (so you know he has one foot out of the door). Of that list, the Bucs make the most sense. The Giants are cap-strapped and the Texans have a suitable back in Miller who they just paid last off-season. The Bucs have a great passing game, and in 2016 their “franchise back” battled injuries, got slapped with a suspension, entered rehab, and averaged a league-low 2.9 yards per carry.

With Peterson’s age, 2016 injuries, and situational instability, now might be the time to acquire Peterson on the cheap. If you’re planning on contending for 2017, his production vs. price point is hard to pass up. A solid acquisition target price is 2.10-3.02.

Jerick McKinnon

It’s hard to fairly grade McKinnon’s 2016 season. I saw significant improvement from McKinnon from 2014 to 2015, but there was regression in 2016. I think the biggest problem is that McKinnon isn’t an instinctual running back. He’s still learning the position since the majority of his career at Georgia Southern was in a triple-option offense. With the decimation of the Vikings offensive line, it was hard for anyone to get anything going. McKinnon finished 2016 with 159 carries, 539 yards, two touchdowns, and only managed a by far career-worst 3.4 yards per carry.

With Peterson expected to depart, and the Vikings likely to focus on the offensive line during free agency and draft, McKinnon has a very good chance at being atop the depth chart come 2017. The Vikings may bring in a body to mix in, but the equity invested in that player shouldn’t send any McKinnon owners into a panic.

McKinnon is a decent buy-low since he has quite a bit of upside for 2017 barring Peterson returning or the Vikings drafting a RB on day two of the NFL Draft. That said, keep in mind that McKinnon isn’t under contract after 2017, so the Vikings could ultimately surprise us and invest heavily into a running back that isn’t on the roster currently.

Matt Asiata

Re-signed to a one year deal back in March of 2016, Asiata was purely an insurance policy. That policy was cashed in quickly because of Peterson’s injury marred season. Asiata isn’t good by any means, but he’s this generation’s Leroy Hoard for the Vikings. If you need one yard, he’ll get you three. If you need five yards, he’ll get you three. He’s competent and reliable, so I expect the Vikings to re-sign him for another sub-million dollar deal. He may have off-and-on value next year assuming McKinnon is the main competition in 2017, but it’s hard generating any sort of excitement for a plodding back.

Wide Receiver

Stefon Diggs

Diggs came out hotter than a fresh batch of McDonald’s french fries to start the season. He went for 16/285/1 in his first two weeks combined. He slowed down considerably weeks three-seven (only three games due to bye and injury), then had 34/320/1 combined during his week eight-ten stretch. From weeks 11-17, he missed two games and was on a milk carton for the rest. That means that outside of those five weeks above, Diggs averaged four receptions for 37.5 yards per game with one total touchdown during the other eight.

Another concern is that Diggs picked up three different injuries that cost him a one game absence for each and nagged him most of the season. Usually that wouldn’t be a worry, but one of the biggest knocks on Diggs coming out of Maryland was his durability. Injuries happen, so I don’t think it’s a reason you’d part ways since he’s only missed 3/26 in his two seasons in the NFL, but don’t be surprised if 13 games played per season is a trend.

Lastly, the potential of Laquon Treadwell emerging could really cap his ceiling. With Adam Thielen becoming Bradford’s main target down the stretch, Diggs could be limited to being a fantasy WR3/4. As a dynasty owner, there are just too many concerns I have for Diggs at the moment. His inconsistency, durability, and Treadwell’s growth may be too much to overcome in 2017. If I’m a betting man, I’d put my money on Diggs finishing outside the top-24 wide receiver scorers next season. You’ll undoubtedly get big performances, but they’ll be littered throughout season randomly. Buckle up for what could be a very frustrating campaign.

Adam Thielen

The MVP of the fantasy championship saved his best for last. In week 16, Thielen went berserk with a line of 12/202/2 and had a season that Vikings fans thought would belong to Treadwell. Thielen led the team in receiving yards with 967 and wide receivers in touchdowns with five.

Thielen has good size, and proved to be the only reliable big playmaker on the roster. The mystery becomes whether he made tremendous strides in his craft while enjoying his year three breakout or if his success was due to opportunity and lack of competition. The easy way out of that mystery is maybe a little bit of both. Thielen should be a strong piece of this offensive puzzle for 2017 and beyond, but his opportunities likely won’t be as flush as 2016 so expectations should be tempered. That said, if Treadwell doesn’t see significant improvement this off-season, Thielen has a legitimate chance at 1,000+ yards and is a sneaky summer target.

Laquon Treadwell

If there was a Vegas line on Sam Bradford matching Treadwell’s receptions on the season and you put $100 on it, you might be able to retire. They each had one reception, and mega-bust is an understatement. Treadwell was my top wide receiver coming out and I thought had the highest floor behind Sterling Shepard. Boy was I wrong. Apparently Treadwell struggled mentally throughout his rookie campaign and Coach Zimmer isn’t comfortable deploying rookies to learn on the job.

I don’t have a clue on what to think of Treadwell for 2017, but it’s not good that the only first round wide receiver I can remember being this worthless in recent years during their rookie season is AJ Jenkins in 2012. If I go back to 1974, Lynn Swan only had 11 receptions and fumbled five times. Also, in 1991 Herman Moore only had 11 receptions. Let’s hope he’s closer to Swan/Moore than Jenkins, but I’m only going to watch with one eye open.

Diggs, Thielen and Treadwell’s 2017 seasons all depend on the first round rookie. If he develops significantly, Diggs and Thielen should see a production reduction. If he doesn’t, Diggs and Thielen could each break the 1,000 yard barrier.

Cordarrelle Patterson

Patterson is such an enigma that he must be the only wide receiver in NFL history to have 100 total offensive touches in their first two seasons and only four in their third season. “Flash” remerged as a piece of this offense and tallied 59 touches. He wasn’t overly explosive with those touches, but at least he showed signs of life.

With Ty Montgomery moving to running back for the Packers, Patterson sounds like he’d be interested in following suit. I doubt he’d have anywhere near the success, but if it increases his touches overall, it’ll be music to dynasty owners’ ears. For now, he’s worth shopping around to your leaguemates.

Charles Johnson

Yeah… No.

Tight End

Kyle Rudolph

Finally. We’ve only been waiting six seasons for Rudolph to breakout. He finishing 2016 with a line of 83/840/7 and nestled into the TE3 overall. Bradford used Rudolph early and often to combat being under siege all season. Rudolph almost certainly won’t finish as the TE3 next year, but with such a dried up well at the position, he could once again make the top-five.

Rudolph is still ridiculously cheap and the only way he doesn’t provide solid starter production is if his injury-riddled past comes back to haunt him. I have my doubts, but two 16 game seasons in a row has been a breath of fresh air. Dangle out a third round pick and see if you can get lucky.

David Morgan

He’s slower than most DLF Writers and won’t be anything more than a blocker at the NFL level.

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izzy elkaffas