Dynasty Capsule: Jacksonville Jaguars
Every year we give our premium content members a team-by-team, player-by-player look at the NFL season that was. The coverage will be in-depth, but because the Dynasty Capsule series begins immediately after the regular season, we won’t use it to discuss free agency or the draft. Come see us in early May once Mr. Irrelevant is off the board for another 32-article series giving you the same detailed discussion you’ll see below.
Buckle up dynasty fans, because you’re about to be reminded why our motto is, “There is no off-season.”
Quarterback
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No one came into 2016 expecting Blake Bortles to repeat the 4428 passing yards and 35 passing touchdowns. That said, Bortles did somehow finish as the QB9 in total fantasy points at the position, QB13 on a points per game basis. He just missed out on 4000 passing yards (3905) and had just 23 touchdown passes, but he made a fair number of improvements. His interception rate (2.6%) is down for the third season in a row and was sacked 34 times (5.2% of dropbacks), the first time he has not led the NFL in the latter category. Some of the same tendencies remain, including the panicking under pressure. Others, like his willingness to throw downfield, suddenly disappeared as he went from leading the league in those attempts (20+ yards) to league average.
The biggest question surrounding Bortles is how many more chances the team gives him. Despite some improvements, he remains a mistake-prone quarterback who does not look to fit in with the defense and run-oriented approach the team wants to move towards. Add in some mechanical issues including a long windup and a tendency to throw off his back foot, and Bortles’ ceiling will remain volume dependent. Fortunately for Bortles, the team still has plenty of other needs, lessening the likelihood a quarterback is picked by the Jaguars early. Bortles has the weapons and the pass game remains the best chance for the Jaguars to win. Expect at least one more fringe QB1 season in 2017. After that, it is anyone’s guess.
Henne remains one of the best backups in the NFL. He has three full seasons of starting experience and is not afraid to make mistakes if it gives him a chance at a big play. Sound familiar? The pass offense would lose very little switching from Bortles to Henne. They would not gain much either.
A rookie in 2016, Allen should be the Henne replacement in Jacksonville. That does not make them anything alike. Allen is a smaller quarterback who is mobile with a quick release and accuracy. He has a lot to learn, including how to operate in a pro-style offense, but there is upside. Keep an eye on him given the uncertainty at the position.
Running Back
Yeldon went from being a workhorse runner averaging over 15 attempts per game as a rookie to seeing that number drop to less than nine per contest. He did see increased work in the passing game as Yeldon was one of just 11 running backs to have at least 50 receptions. The RB35 finish (among players with 8+ games) in points per game was lower than most expected. The inconsistency stemmed from an uneven workload with just four games of ten+ carries. Yeldon has the ability to be a workhorse back but good health would be a nice start. Expect the timeshare to continue with Chris Ivory as he maintains value in PPR but has a low touchdown upside.
A consistent tackle-breaking force, the most likely thing to slow Ivory down is injuries. He lasted just 11 games this season, his first in Jacksonville, but was relied on when he made it onto the field. Ivory had at least ten touches in all but two games, although he had just three touchdowns. If you expect Ivory to be a receiving back, don’t. He has only once had more than 20 receptions in a season. Ivory will likely end up with a similar number of total touches to Yeldon, but his will be on the ground. The touchdown bar is higher here than with Yeldon, but in this offense, that bar is still low.
The man known as “Shoelace” is capable of big plays and has shown ability in the receiving game. The former quarterback does not look like a long-term option in Jacksonville and free agency looms. The best he can hope for is a committee role on a team lacking RB depth.
He made the list off his week 17 performance, which included 122 rushing yards on just 18 carries. The former Auburn runner has blazing speed (sub 4.3 forty at his pro day) but has limited wiggle and struggles to make defenders miss. He should be the third string running back in 2017 and does have some deep league appeal.
Wide Receiver
While most expected a drop-off for ARob, his per game finish as WR32 was among the most disappointing finishes of the season. While Robinson had the same number of targets in 2016 vs 2015 (151), he caught seven less passes and averaged more than five yards fewer per reception (17.5 vs 12.1). The latter is a result of Bortles’ aforementioned decrease in downfield attempts. Robinson went from 31 receptions of 20+ yards in 2015 to just 11 this year. He also struggled in the red zone this year after a lot of success in 2015 (12 of his 14 touchdowns were in the red zone).
With the wavering production came a slight drop in ADP. Robinson is a fringe first rounder after spending most of the off-season in the top six. This is a palatable price for a wide receiver dealing with so many questions around his quarterback and surrounding cast. The emergence of another receiving option (more on that in a minute) could cap Robinson’s ceiling but so long as the team maintains their passing volume, ARob has a chance to rebound in a big way.
It was not the season expected from Hurns after a 2015 which featured over 1000 receiving yards and ten touchdowns. 2016 featured five missed games, the lowest catch rate (46%) of his career, and just three touchdowns on 35 receptions (another career low rate). The soon to be fourth year receiver has slid down startup draft boards as well, going from a late fifth rounder as recently as September to an ADP of 136 in January. The 2016 performance is a culprit, but a suddenly crowded receiving depth chart has owners questioning the long-term viability for the young playmaker. He could be the type of low cost investment that sees a rebound for patient dynasty owners.
The “other” third year Jaguars receiver finally had the breakout devy owners were hoping for during his USC playing days. Lee was just 32 yards behind Robinson and his 105 targets were four more than his first two seasons combined. Yes, Lee outscored Brandon Marshall and Sammy Watkins on a fantasy points per game basis in 2016. However, the question around job security is much more pressing as he enters a career tipping point. He has now surpassed Hurns’ ADP (111.5 vs 136), so you have to ask yourself, do you feel lucky?
Has shown a few flashes in his two years in Jacksonville, including three starts down the stretch with Allen Hurns injured, culminating in 13 receptions in the last two weeks. That said, Walters is a 29 year old receiver on his third team with a career long catch of just 31 yards. At best, he is insurance behind the outside starters in Jacksonville assuming he gets re-signed. Only a roster option in very deep leagues.
Remember when he was a second round NFL draft pick? I ask because he has been out of football since 2012. Benn saw some time due to injuries on the team and did have a few nice plays including a 51 yard touchdown. He is a free agent with no indication he will be re-signed. Keep a very casual eye on Benn.
Tight End
Much like Pierre Garcon, Thomas benefitted from Peyton Manning in the form of a lucrative contract. So far, he has failed to live up to the investment. Thomas has struggled with injuries, he missed seven games in 2016, and is not a big play threat. The red zone target has nine touchdowns in 21 games but is averaging under ten yards per reception. Unless Thomas stays on the field and Bortles finds him inside the 20, there is not as much upside as his name value suggests. Treat him like a mid TE2 and hope for low end TE1 production.
For some reason, the Jaguars gave him a big contract ($4M/year) to be Thomas’ backup. Granted, it looks better as Thomas has been hurt, but he only had one game over 23 yards despite starting ten games in 2016. Much like Thomas, Lewis is a red zone option with limited explosiveness. Unless your league rewards for blocking or 2010 stats, stay away.
The rookie was thrust into some action as the team struggled with injuries, and he did well enough. The former Golden Domer had six games with multiple receptions including a touchdown catch in week 17. He came out as a raw receiving prospect but has the tools to develop into a tough matchup for defenses. This is a long-term stash in the deepest of leagues.
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