IDP Scheme Changes for 2017: Cleveland Browns
Scheme changes are arguably the most important activity to monitor throughout the IDP off-season. They can have a huge impact on the IDP landscape, present opportunities for value on the waiver wire or destroy IDP stud value.
For example, when the Houston Texans switched from a 3-4 base to a 4-3 base scheme in 2011, it resulted in an IDP position switch for Mario Williams from defensive end to outside linebacker. As many of us know, that destroyed Williams’ IDP value in tackle-heavy leagues as, generally, outside linebackers are tough to depend on in that format.
On the flipside, a switch from a 3-4 to 4-3 base scheme flips an outside linebacker to defensive end, which could result in a spike in a player’s IDP value given the handful of studs at end. Look no further than Brandon Graham of the Eagles this past year. He switched from a 3-4 outside linebacker to a 4-3 defensive end transitioning from waiver wire fodder in tackle-heavy leagues to a top ten defensive end.
There are a number of impactful changes thus far in 2017 with the Browns, Rams, Bills and potentially the Broncos. There may also be others to come with several unsettled coordinator and head coaching spots. These scheme changes are another example why taking IDP studs early in a startup draft may not be the best strategy. Especially since philosophy changes have a significant and immediate impact on the defensive side of the ball, much more so than on the offensive side.
We’ll start our impact assessments with the Cleveland Browns:
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Soon after the 2016 season, the Browns fired defensive coordinator Ray Horton who notoriously runs a 3-4 multiple front defense. To replace Horton, the Browns brought in Gregg Williams. While Williams also runs a lot of fronts, he’s spent much of his career running a 4-3 under base scheme. He ran other base schemes (4-3 over), so its important to remember there is some flexibility in his defensive philosophy. However, a 4-3 under base seems most likely for 2017.
For IDP purposes, this is one of my favorite changes thus far this off-season. Think of it like this, the purpose of a 4-3 under package is to be stout against the run and bring aggressive quarterback pressure. Defending the run, the goal is to force strong-side rushing attempts to the weakside. Ultimately, the strongside linebacker plays on the line of scrimmage focusing on gap-discipline allowing the weakside and middle linebacker to make all the plays against the run and blitzes defending the pass. Against the run, the strongside linebacker gets the scraps after the middle linebacker and weakside linebacker are done feasting. So, the middle and weakside linebackers will carry the most value.
Another crucial role is the 3-technique defensive tackle. He’s usually undersized and needs to be able to win one-on-one matchups. Warren Sapp and Aaron Donald are great examples of the type of player ideal for this role.
Kirksey benefited from the lack of talent next to him inside (Demario Davis) and teams grinding out the clock as the Browns often played from behind in 2016. He finished as a LB1 for the year. He should now benefit from this scheme change, as he’s a favorite to play on the weakside and see plenty of tackle opportunities.
Jamie Collins, LB
During the 2016 season, Collins often played on the edge in Horton’s 3-4 scheme increasing the volatility of his weekly output and decreasing his IDP value compared to when he was with the Patriots.
Collins is a free agent in 2017, but if he re-signs with Cleveland, he can fit one of two places – in the middle or on the strongside. Either way, he’ll regain the value he possessed with the Patriots as a top linebacker. While the strongside is a possibility considering his pass-rush and coverage ability, the middle linebacker spot is crucial in Williams’ defense. Williams needs a high football IQ player who can make audible calls with little direction. Collins is exactly that type of player, which is why I think he plays in the middle if he re-signs.
See the Davis discussion below for the possibility he plays on the strongside.
Demario Davis, LB
Davis struggled massively in coverage this season and he’s a depreciating IDP asset because of it. He still has a year left on the deal he signed with the Browns last off-season, but I wouldn’t expect him to hold much value if Collins is re-signed. Davis doesn’t possess the coverage skills to play on the strongside, so he’s likely to settle into a reserve role if he isn’t cut. Instead, I believe the Browns are highly likely to address the strongside role in free agency or the draft. Though, I acknowledge there is a possibility Collins is re-signed, they place him on the strongside and Davis sticks in the middle. In that case, Davis would have some value in very deep leagues, but would not play three downs keeping his IDP value deflated. I think that’s unlikely though.
Danny Shelton, DT
Shelton is massive, and probably the perfect build and specimen to fill the 1-technique role, or nose tackle. Given how crucial the 3-technique role is and how effective Shelton was this year, I believe the Browns should consider making that work. However, if I were to place my chips on where he ends up, it’d be the 1-technique or nose tackle role. In a four man front, Shelton should see an increase in tackle opportunities compared to his former 3-4 nose tackle role. With a DT1 finish this past season, Shelton could push for a top five finish under Williams as he’s now playing in various situations and owns a three down role.
Emmanuel Ogbah, DE
Like Graham last season with the Eagles, Ogbah should see a nice bump in value as his position should change to defensive end in Williams’ scheme. Only a year from his value tanking after he was drafted as a 3-4 outside linebacker, Ogbah should be considered a favorite add and sleeper heading into 2017.
Other Positions
I would also expect the Browns to bring in another defensive end via free agency or the draft to fill the second starting spot, though Carl Nassib could potentially fill that role.
They’ll also need to consider adding a physical strong safety. I think they’ll upgrade the position as a sure tackler will be crucial with all the aggression upfront, as well as how much time the strong safety spends in the box in this scheme.
The Browns corners will also be a popular target, as they should see plenty of tackle opportunities with a lot of single-man coverage, as well.
Ultimately, this defense is one to watch as rookies and free agents are added. There are a lot of important roles that remain unsettled at this point.
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