The DLF Mailbag
Welcome to the latest edition of the weekly mailbag.
Send your questions using the DLF Mailbag Form and we may answer them in future articles. Remember the guidelines to have the best chance at seeing your question get posted:
1) Dynasty questions only, no start/sit questions
2) Help us help you by providing sufficient information about your league (e.g. line-up requirements, PPR or non-PPR, etc.), and include your first name and where you’re from.
3) Your chance of getting your question answered is inversely proportional to the length of the question.
Let’s get to it!
1. The following players are on my waivers. Who is the best pickup for 2017?
Brian in Chicago
(12 teams, PPR, IDP, 5 offense spots with a maximum of 2 RBs)
Brian, I’ll do my best to answer this without knowing the rest of your roster. Comparing the three wide receivers is independent of roster construction, though the depth of your receiving corps would factor into a decision between Hooper and Anderson.
It is easiest to start by choosing between Enunwa and Anderson as they’re on the same team. I recently wrote about Anderson and have acquired him in multiple leagues. However, I prefer Enunwa as I think he’s the superior talent and will outshine Anderson if given an even playing field with regards to prep with the Jets’ quarterback.
I would also prefer Enunwa to Nelson, who is a boom-or-bust player with one (very good) trick. Given the uncertainty at wide receiver in Arizona, with Larry Fitzgerald contemplating retirement and John Brown’s health in question, Nelson may see an increase in targets in 2017 and have some big games. There’s also some uncertainty surrounding Carson Palmer’s future, though, so that is not a given. Enunwa is the preferable choice at wide receiver.
Here’s where it gets tricky. I really like Hooper, and wouldn’t be surprised to see him second in targets behind Julio Jones next season. The issues are that Atlanta also has two really good running backs who can catch passes out of the backfield, and the presences of middling talents like Mohamed Sanu, Aldrick Robinson and Justin Hardy spreads the ball around more than I’d like. As you don’t have to start any tight ends, I’d add Enunwa over Hooper to make him the waiver wire add.
2. I’m rebuilding a dynasty team. I have improved a bunch in past year, but was offered DeAndre Hopkins and a late-2018 1st for Mike Evans. I’m unsure of the Texan QB future and am on the fence about making this deal. Is a late 2018 1st enough to merit the downgrade from Evans’ seemingly guaranteed outlook to Hopkins’ uncertain one?
Current Roster:
QB Dalton, Cutler, RG3, Glennon
RB Perkins, Dixon
WR Evans, Cooper, Keenan, A. Robinson, Doctson, Gordon
TE Higbee, Doyle
Andy in Evansville
(12 teams, PPR, 1-2QB, 1-2RB, 2-3WR, 1TE [7 starters])
Andy, the value within this deal is entirely dependent upon your opinion of Hopkins. In January 2017 ADP data, he dropped one spot from nine to ten overall from the previous month. DLF writers have him as the number six wide receiver (I am lowest on him at number nine) and he is number seven on the Top 100 list. While he falls in the mid-late first round range in all of these, Evans is unquestioned the number two overall dynasty asset in both ADP and dynasty rankings.
With all of this in mind, the value of players exponentially increases as you go higher in the rankings. I see a sizable gap between Evans and Hopkins, primarily in that I envision Evans will be force-fed targets no matter what. With both players catching just over 50% of their targets, I’d much prefer the bigger target for red zone opportunities, with a better quarterback, who is trending in the right direction for targets (147 in 2015 to 175 in 2016, whereas Hopkins declined from 192 to 150). It is difficult to attach too much of a player’s value to their quarterback, but with more stability at the position in Tampa Bay it is hard to ignore the mess that is the Texans’ situation.
A late 2018 first is a nice piece, but give me Evans over Nuk and the pick.
3. If you had the top 2 picks in the 2017 draft, are you
- using them both,
- attempting to trade back in the 17 draft,
- attempting to trade into the 18 draft, or
- some combination?
Sean in Minneapolis
(12 teams, .5 PPR, 1QB, 2RB, 3WR, 1FLEX)
Sean, without knowing your roster it is difficult to provide a definitive answer here. The approach I would take in that scenario would vary depending on whether I am rebuilding or contending (or somewhere in between).
In one league, I have Le’Veon Bell and David Johnson so I am likely a contender and more concerned with addressing perceived gaps at wide receiver and tight end. Therefore, with two running backs currently the consensus at the top of the draft board, I’d be looking to move down or into the 2018 draft (or out of both drafts entirely) and acquire a receiver who can help me win next year.
If I have the first two picks, there is a decent chance my team is not a contender (though you very well could be and made some shrewd trades for these assets) and I’d love to add at least one of the top two running backs in Leonard Fournette and Dalvin Cook. If values remain generally stable until your rookie draft, those would be the top options. In that scenario, I would then take whichever running back I prefer at that point and try to trade down a couple spots, acquiring an extra player or pick and still taking a top wide receiver.
The other variable you need to consider is timing. At least until the Combine (which starts February 28), I would hold onto my picks. The value of these will only be increasing, even up to the draft, but the rookie hype will begin to spike in early March.
Additionally, the 2018 draft is already gaining hype after some key players decided to return to school this season. Still, a top-two pick in 2017 could net you a combination of players and early 2017/2018 rookie picks to build upon. Just don’t sell them yet.
- Dynasty Capsule: Jacksonville Jaguars - February 5, 2018
- My Beginner’s Guide to Reality Sports Online - May 12, 2017
- The DLF Mailbag - February 24, 2017
