Dynasty Stock Market: September ADP Review

Ryan McDowell

Welcome back to the Dynasty Stock Market, my favorite ongoing series to write and one I hope you gain value in reading. Speaking of value, that’s the primary topic of every edition of the Stock Market and understanding the always changing dynasty value of individual players will help you win your leagues. This season, you’ll see something a little different from the Stock Market.

One week each month, I’ll analyze some changes in the staff rankings, focusing on players moving up or down our positional dynasty ranks. Another topic will analyze the monthly ADP we offer, looking for trends that you can use to dominate your league. With brand new ADP hitting the site recently, let’s dig in!

Let’s begin by simply checking out the top ten at each position, including rookies from our September dynasty ADP.

Quarterback

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The long-time top three remains intact here as Rodgers, Luck and Wilson maintain a decent gap between themselves and the pack. Maybe more interesting though is the nearly two round separation from the QB1, Rodgers, to Luck, who is falling a bit due to his injury status. Mariota, Winston and Carr continue to be targeted after their respective breakout seasons over the past two years.

Carr’s fall to QB10 and nearly outside of the top 100 baffles me. He arguably has a better wide receiver duo than either of his young counterparts and put up a huge season a year ago, nearly earning him a league MVP award. He looks like a nice value compared to others on the list.

Running Back

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Like the quarterbacks, the top three runners are also well-established and threat of a suspension for Elliott wasn’t enough to change that. I also don’t expect the recent wrist injury suffered by Johnson to impact the trio, either.

The remaining backs in this group should continue to shuffle around in the coming months, but expect a pair of impressive rookies, Dalvin Cook and Kareem Hunt, to crash the party, too. They could take top ten spots from Howard, whose playing time is being threatened by another rook, Tarik Cohen, and Gurley, who looks the same as his 2016 self, even with a new coaching staff.

Wide Receiver

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Each year, as the regular season nears, reliable and established veterans being to regain their deserved ranks in our ADP, while younger players, who have been valued on hope and upside alone, begin to slide.

That trend is why I’m surprised by Raiders receiver Cooper remaining ahead of Brown, Jones and Green into the regular season. Slow starts for Bryant, Cooks and Hilton could really shake things up soon.

Tight End

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The top ten tight end list has been beefed up with the arrival of a trio of rookies, including Engram and Howard, along with Browns David Njoku, sitting just outside of this list. The top of the list is exactly what experienced dynasty players would expect, with relatively little change in the past three years.

Gronkowski, Kelce, Reed, Eifert and Olsen have been stalwarts among the highest-valued tight ends in the game. Ertz and Lions Eric Ebron, who fell outside of this list, provide excellent values in comparison to many valued above them.

Rookies

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The news cycle that included the injury to Chiefs running back Spencer Ware, shortly followed by head coach Andy Reid naming Hunt as the starter really shook up this list. Hunt was already a player rising up the ranks throughout the off-season, but this lit the match. His performance early this season should once again bolster his ADP come October.

We could also see slow starters like Jones and Ross fall down the list, with dynasty owners valuing the immediate production of players like Cooper Kupp and Kenny Golladay.

Next, let’s look at the top risers and fallers from August to September.

Risers

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Most of these should come as no surprise considering they were in the news in a positive light as the pre-season wrapped up and the regular season neared. Hogan’s path to fantasy relevance opened up after the pre-season injury to veteran Julian Edelman, causing him to crack the top 100 after previously sitting outside the top 200.

Dynasty owners were slow to come around on many once unheralded rookies, but late in the pre-season was when that kicked in for Carson, Breida, Westbrook, Cohen and Henderson. Once the regular season started, some of those players have taken a backseat to established veterans, while others have continued to increase their dynasty value, namely Carson and Cohen. Both young backs have quickly earned a prime role for their respective teams.

Fallers

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Again, there are few surprises here. The top fallers are comprised mainly of players suffering serious pre-season injuries, including receivers Enunwa, Edelman and Meredith and running back Ware, all of whom are out for the season. Outside of Williams, cut by Buffalo, and Woods, who was displaced following the Rams trade for Sammy Watkins and the early impressive play of rookie Cooper Kupp, the remaining players on this list are rookies who are unlikely to have a major role in 2017. Just as we were somewhat slow to adjust our values of the rookie risers, the inverse is true of rookies once drafted in the second or third round, like McNichols and Williams.

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ryan mcdowell
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