Tanner Gentry: So You’re Saying There’s a Chance?
I’ve written love letters… I mean, articles about many an Undrafted Free Agent (UDFA) before. There’s nothing quite like having the guy on your bench already when everybody runs to the waiver wire. Of course to get that feeling, and production, you have to be ready to roster some duds. Not all of them work out. Every time one does, however, it helps to narrow down the indicators that can help to find others. Cameron Meredith’s profile helped to further highlight how college production and Market Share can help identify more likely candidates to emerge from uncertain depth charts. Meredith was (is, he’ll be back) the perfect storm of athleticism and college market share.
Tyrell Williams and Adam Thielen also follow that trend. After so many UDFAs “making it” last year, it’s almost too much to hope for another anytime soon. But I always try to be open to the next man up when a position has signs of uncertainty. The deprivation that is the Chicago Bears depth chart has a lot of that.
If we manage our expectations, there is a chance a talented player could emerge to show something of his potential.
UDFAs that “Stick”
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Signs a UDFA is emerging can be more subtle than more highly drafted players. For Thielen and Meredith, one of the best indicators, it seems, was that they managed to stick to their depth charts. As UDFA’s surviving a year or more of cuts and 53-man roster decisions – not to mention a whole new class of talented players – is a positive indicator. Players without draft capital are much more likely to get cut.
If we take 2013 draft class as an example (the one Adam Thielen “broke out” from) we see that the same number of UDFAs and players drafted outside the first round are still on their original team (two.) But the length of time most players stayed on their original team is in almost perfect descending order from their draft capital. Rightly or wrongly, teams tend to cut UDFAs before seventh round picks. If we examine the nature of how they left those teams we also see a tendency for UDFAs to be cut outright or lost to other practice squads (PS.) Whereas drafted players are more likely to be traded or kept until they are lost to free agency (FA.)
I wasn’t surprised that Tanner Gentry, a player with an interesting college profile, was cut despite showing chemistry with Mitch Trubisky in the preseason. When the Bears dropped down to a 53-man roster he dropped through waivers and onto their practice squad. Thielen (who “stuck” to the Minnesota squad for four years) also spent some time on the practice squad.
*From Pro Sports Transactions
So Gentry falling to the Bears practice squad is in this case at least a neutral, if not a positive indicator. Now that he has signed back to the 53 man squad (after Kevin White’s injury) it’s very possible that he is one of those few UDFA’s that who will start to “stick” to their initial team.
Opportunity
The Bears are not going to be a hot bed of receiving points in 2017. Not while the offense is being babysat by a below average quarterback with a weak arm in Mike Glennon. There is hope for the future in Trubisky. But for now, we can’t expect much volume and the quality of targets is questionable.
Markus Wheaton and Kendall Wright both have a chance to rectify their (to this point) disappointing careers. Both are also, now, probably, behind Tarik Cohen on the target hierarchy.
It’s ugly, sure, but there is clearly uncertainty in the depth chart. If a UDFA proves useful to the team, they could see further opportunity in the future as well.
What makes Tanner Gentry interesting?
Not his athleticism. Despite being an outside receiver in college, he only managed a 4.58 40-time at his pro day. That’s not absolutely terrible on the face of it. DeAndre Hopkins ran a 4.57 at the combine in 2013. But pro day times are notoriously faster, and this likely places his time somewhere above the 4.6 range which is a bit more worrying.
At 6’1” and 208 pounds, Gentry has good enough size, and this leads to a slightly more promising 90.5 (35th percentile) Height Adjusted Speed Score. But his Agility Score ranks in the sixth percentile and even his Catch Radius, lauded on film review, grades out as a measly 9.94 (35th percentile.) The only above-average athletic metric he has to his name is a 126.1 (76th percentile) Burst score.
So, he is explosive, at least. The catch radius noted on his film likely stems from his impressive Broad and Vertical jumps. But he must also have at least fair in-game instincts since he’s not being helped out overly by athleticism and he still dominated in college.
I am trying to talk some negatives into positives here, which can backfire. But we know that wide receivers can overcome meager athleticism more easily than other positions. DeAndre Hopkins, Willie Snead, and Jarvis Landry are the most recent examples of this. This is especially true if the player has talent, good hands, route running and volume. Tanner Gentry had all of the former already, based on his college profile.
College Production
While his breakout age of 20.7 (43rd percentile) is not ideal, it also makes sense to stay in college longer in lower divisions as players are less likely to have a chance at an NFL roster. Meredith and Thielen, both had Breakout Ages over 20 years old and the trend holds true historically (Wes Welker had a Breakout Age of 20.) What’s more, the progression and strength of Gentry’s Market Share (shown above) indicate he has talent.
He ran a complete route tree at Wyoming and was impressive enough to yield some pre-draft interest from the PFF analyst team. One thing that struck me about his profile from a numbers perspective is that he still dominated, despite having missed significant time to injury, in his age 20-season (2015).
*Table from Sports Reference
Playing in only seven games, he managed to eclipse 30% of the teams receiving yards and 20% of the teams receiving touchdowns. Gentry was a focal point of the offense in Wyoming, whenever he was on the field. His 88th-percentile Yards-Per-Reception also tells us that he is capable of big plays and was not compiling numbers based purely on volume.
Competition
It hasn’t been lost on fantasy players that Deonte Thompson out-snapped other receivers immediately after Meredith’s injury in the preseason. At six feet and over 200 pounds, Thompson has a 92nd percentile Height Adjusted Speed Score after running a 4.36 40-time in 2012.
However, I am not optimistic about his potential to breakout. I don’t want to use a roster spot on a 28-year-old who has bounced around the league and never produced much more than kick return yards in either college or the NFL.
Thompson was unable to use his, admittedly, much more impressive athleticism to gain any significant percentage of Florida’s receiving game in the SEC. Being unable to out produce younger, less athletic, and less experienced players in his age 22-college-season is a red flag. This is reflected in his 13.3% (eighth percentile) College Dominator rating compared to Gentry’s 44.8%, (89th percentile) College Dominator.
*Table from Sports Reference
Thompson has been unable to stick to a roster despite impressive athleticism. In short, he is everything I don’t look for in a breakout candidate. While he has proven ability on special teams he has yet to accumulate more than 500 receiving yards in the NFL.
*Table from Pro Football Reference
I do think it’s a positive thing that he has been on the Bears for the last two years. He was also given some opportunity in 2016. But I wouldn’t expect more than the 200-plus-yards he managed last season based on his profile.
Conclusion
It’s possibly the worst horse race in the world – a competition for the lowest quality targets in town. It will be between Markus Wheaton and Kendall Wright. Both may be fighting for Tarik Cohen’s scraps. But in the meantime, the competition for any opportunity left over is likely between Deonte Thompson and Tanner Gentry.
To me, they look like two sides of the UDFA breakout star on the same team from last year, Cameron Meredith. But while Thompson only mimics Meredith’s athleticism, it’s Gentry who reflects his College Dominance. Since college production has proven more predictive than 40-time for NFL success, I lean heavily towards Gentry being more worth a roster spot in a deep dynasty league or on a taxi squad. He is the more likely to produce, if he can get some volume, a glimpse of future potential. It’s a big if, I admit, but short of being a mystic it’s the best way I know to try and find the next UDFA breakout.
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UDFA's matter | British ex-pat | Writer of things
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