The DLF Dynasty Trading Post: September

Welcome to the first Dynasty Trading Post in what will be a regular column here at Dynasty League Football. This column is intended to track which players or assets increasing, or even decreasing, in value, allowing our readers to adjust their sights and values accordingly. With the first full week of NFL regular season football completed, let’s jump right in and see where the fantasy community are moving assets around.

Hot Hand

First, let’s examine the player of the week, Kareem Hunt. Hunt absolutely destroyed weeks for many fantasy owners, take the word “destroyed” in either context. His 148 rushing yards, one rushing touchdown, five receptions, 98 receiving yards and two receiving touchdowns was the best first game for a rookie running back in the history of the NFL, breaking a 37-year-old record previously held by former Detroit Lions running back Billy Sims.

Leading up to Thursday night’s season opener, Hunt was involved in roughly 2.5 trades every day. Since his record setting performance, his tradability has nosedived to just one trade per day on average. Much of the reason for his decreased tradability is almost certainly related to owners taking a wait and see approach before shipping him off to a competitor, an approach I’m proud to say I advised even before his explosion in our most recent Vox Talks piece.

Biggest Volume Fluctuation

[am4show have=’g1;’ guest_error=’sub_message’ user_error=’sub_message’ ]

Elsewhere, the biggest jump in terms of pure number of trades executed for Top 40 ranked players within the past 30 days as opposed to the 30 days prior to that were Ezekiel Elliott (19) and Sammy Watkins (27). The uncertainty around Elliot’s potential suspension clear has some owners worried while those acquiring him were likely buoyed by news that he could likely play out the rest of this season while his legal case against the NFL proceeds through the justice system. Conversely, the jump in trades involving Watkins is directly attributable to him being traded from Buffalo Bills to the Los Angeles Rams.

On the other side of the spectrum, trades involving Dalvin Cook (-12) and Christian McCaffrey (-9) have decreased as owners cling tightly to their newly acquired rookie running backs in hopes that each player can carve out a significant role for themselves. This is an extended version or the rationale that owners of Kareem Hunt are currently taking.

Biggest Percentage Fluctuation

Far and away the biggest percentage increase in trading of a player was Corey Davis whose owners traded him 18 times 31-60 days ago, but who have traded him 35 times within the past 30 days, a 94.40% increase within the past month. The reason for this sudden increase could revolve around the fact that Davis did not play in any preseason games and also linked to the fact that the Titans signed Eric Decker during the off-season, a move that many of those who drafted Davis in rookie drafts did not foresee.

The single biggest percentage dip in trades centered around Green Bay quarterback, Aaron Rodgers. Rodgers owners performed 22 trades involving the player between 31 and 60 days ago but that number shrunk to 14 within the past 30 days, a decrease of 36.40%. While there doesn’t appear to be any one discernable reason for this decline, owners may have been less willing to trade Rodgers after the Packers’ 3-1 preseason record and all of his top receivers returning.

Future Draft Pick Outlook

A strange shift has occurred in trades involving future draft picks over the past month, the percentage growth in trades involving 2019 draft picks has eclipsed the growth rate of trades involving 2018 picks. First round draft pick trades involving 2019 picks grew 50.70% within the past month while 2018 first round picks grew at a paltry 6.40%. Similarly, 2019 second round picks grew at a 64.20% pace as opposed to 2018 second picks being moved at a 19.40% growth rate.

Much of the growth in 2019 pick trading could center on dynasty commissioners opening up these picks for trade now that all rookie drafts for the 2017 season are complete or owners might feel a bit more open to moving picks two seasons in the future in hopes they can recoup this capital down the road.

In terms of the pure number of trades involving future draft picks, the 2018 second round pick is the most popular asset of all future draft picks with 849 trades involving this pick over the past month. Close behind that is the 2018 third round pick which was involved in 825 trades over that same time period.

IDP Focus

Everyone who has followed my work on DLF knows that I love IDP. I’d estimate that 80%, or more, of the leagues I play in have some aspect of IDP in them. Therefore, I’d be remiss if I didn’t put some trade information out there for my fellow #NoTeamD guys out there.

The biggest percentage change in trading of a player centers around Cameron Jordan who saw the number of trades he was involved in increase by 500% this month. The jump in trade action involving Jordan is directly attributable to a news report from ESPN Saints Reporter Mike Triplett which stated that Jordan was dominating training camp. Similar reports from other Saints reports reinforced this perception, likely resulting in the noticeable spike in trades.

Joey Bosa was on the oppose side trading volume, seeing the number of trades involving him decrease by 75% month over month. Bosa is DLF’s second highest rated defensive end, trailing only JJ Watt who is six years his senior. After a productive rookie campaign which saw him record 11 sacks (13th most in the NFL) despite holding out for a quarter of the season, it is likely that Bosa owners aren’t overly inclined to move him this close to the start of the season. While the number of trades involving him are certain to increase as the season progresses, many owners likely feel that, at least for the time being, Bosa will be a cornerstone of their defense and are likely asking a significant amount in trade talks in order to trade him away (At least I know that’s what I’m doing!).

The Raw Numbers

For those interested in the number of trades tracked by the Dynasty Trade Finder involving the top 40 ranked players on each side of the ball and trades involving draft picks, here’s the data you’re looking for:

Trades Involving Offense Players Only: 863 unique trades occurred in the last 30 days while 801 unique trades occurred in the prior 30 days.

Trades Involving IDP Players: 121 unique trades occurred in the last 30 days while 68 unique trades occurred in the prior 30 days.

Trades Involving Draft Picks: 2176 unique trades occurred in the last 30 days while 1953 unique trades occurred in the prior 30 days.

That’s it for this, the opening article in this column. Stay tuned for follow-ups and keep trading!

[/am4show]