Player Value: The 2017 Running Back Resurgence
For the past two years, running backs have been largely viewed as necessary evils rather than true roster building blocks. A prevailing dynasty mentality has been to focus roster construction around gathering wide receivers, especially early in startup drafts. If you own enough elite wide receivers, you don’t really even need strong running backs to win a title in PPR formats. A related strategy has been to gather the wide receiver talent, and when the cupboards are full enough, trade future draft picks for win-now running backs to give a roster the extra juice needed to become a heavy favorite.
While those strategies are still very sound, the community is quickly moving towards a more balanced approach from a roster construction perspective. I’ve seen it in ADP data and in trade data. In fact, 2017 could very well be the year of the running back resurgence in dynasty.
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ADP
As clearly seen in the table above, running back concentration within each of the first three rounds of startup drafts is at a four-year high after bottoming out across the board in 2016. This resurgence has occurred due to two primary factors.
First, the 2015 season was essentially a RB-pocalypse from a fantasy output perspective. Twelve wide receivers outscored the fantasy RB2 that season. Dynasty owners overreacted and pushed running backs way down their startup draft boards, and essentially avoided the position altogether in the first round of startups the following season. In 2016, things rebounded sharply, as the fantasy RB6 outscored the fantasy WR6. The faith of dynasty owners had been restored by the end of the season.
The second reason for the resurgence of running backs in the top 36 is the considerable influx of talent from the college ranks. There are three rookie running backs (Leonard Fournette, Christian McCaffrey, and Joe Mixon) found in the top 36 of August Dynasty Startup ADP and a fourth (Dalvin Cook) is expected to join them in September. It would not be shocking to potentially see a fifth (Kareem Hunt) break the top 36 by October.
In addition to the value gains by younger running backs, I’ve noticed aging, veteran running backs have staved off the typical dynasty value decline. Observe the ADP trends of Melvin Gordon and LeSean McCoy:
Specifically, observe the ADP data from January 2017 forward. It makes sense that Gordon’s value has continued to increase if the community has really changed their mind about running backs. He’s only 24 years-old, he just turned in a fantasy RB1 season, and he’s in a good offense. McCoy, however? He’s 29 years-old and plays on a team with major quarterback questions and figures to be in plenty of negative game scripts in 2017. What we are observing is dynasty owners pushing up the value of the position regardless of situational factors.
Another interesting ADP trend is uncovered by observing how wide receivers of similar age and pedigree to these running backs are being impacted. Let’s pit Gordon against Allen Robinson and McCoy against Demaryius Thomas.
Gordon and Robinson are both 24 years-old, have finished within the top 12 fantasy scorers at their position once, and were selected in the first or second round of the NFL Draft. These types of ties have almost always gone to the wide receiver in the past few seasons. However, we are now seeing drafters prefer Gordon to Robinson in startups. The same scenario is playing out with McCoy and Thomas. They are both 29 and have been long-standing elite fantasy producers. Drafters are selecting McCoy before Thomas despite a strong likelihood that Thomas produces more fantasy-relevant seasons moving forward.
Trades
ADP is only one piece of the player value pie. If the inter-positional value gap between wide receivers and running back has truly narrowed, then the trend should also be seen in trade data.
From 50,000 feet, the trade market for elite wide receivers should be softening this year versus last year. Data should show that more one-for-one inter-positional deals involving top 36 startup players are occurring this year versus last year. Using DeAndre Hopkins as a case study, I surveyed the DLF Dynasty Trade Finder (which queries a database of more than 111,000 actual dynasty trades) to see if there is any evidence of an increase in this type of behavior. I chose Hopkins as a case study because he is generally considered an elite dynasty asset and has maintained a top 12 startup ADP for the 12-month period of which I am speaking.
August 2016
Trades involving DeAndre Hopkins in a one-for-one deal for a running back: 0
Trades involving DeAndre Hopkins in any deal for a running back in startup Top 36: 4
August 2017
Trades involving DeAndre Hopkins in a one-for-one deal for a running back: 2
Trades involving DeAndre Hopkins in any deal for a running back in startup Top 36: 10
Trade data is hard to see as absolute because every league essentially has its own micro-economy. However, this is certainly another positive indicator that the community is moving towards eliminating the inter-positional value gap between running backs and wide receivers.
Practical Application
There is significant evidence that the community is no longer afraid to build a dynasty team around high-value running backs. Given their current value, it is very tempting to sell any running back in the top 36 startup ADP, especially if they are aging, have poor draft pedigree, or are on a bad team. McCoy is an obvious sell if I’ve ever seen one and I would move him for any of the wide receivers with top 36 ADPs. Todd Gurley, Jordan Howard, and Jay Ajayi are also players to consider shopping, considering you may be able to net wide receivers in good offenses, such as Brandin Cooks, Dez Bryant, or Doug Baldwin.
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- Mount Bust-More? Historical Context for 2017’s Early First Round WRs - December 28, 2017
- The Return of Josh Gordon - December 2, 2017
- Player Value: Two Wide Receivers Who Might Never Be Cheaper - September 15, 2017
