DLF’s 2017 Predictions: Best Dynasty Sell

Ken Kelly

Most rookie drafts are in the rearview mirror and the NFL Preseason is winding down. We’re all busy combing the news sites trying to keep abreast of all the important developments as we prepare for the best time of the year, the NFL season.  That can only mean one thing – it’s time for us to put a bow on those reams of off-season content with DLF’s 2017 Fantasy Predictions. As we do every year, we have several different prediction articles for you in the following categories:

  • Fantasy MVP
  • Fantasy Rookie of the Year
  • Sleeper Rookie of the Year (outside our top 24)
  • Bust of the Year
  • Fantasy Sleeper
  • Best Dynasty Buy
  • Best Dynasty Sell
  • Fantasy Comeback Player of the Year

We continue the series with our choices for the candidates for best dynasty sell.

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Jay Ajayi, RB MIA

One of the top risers of the off-season has been Miami back Jay Ajayi, who is suddenly being treated like a top five dynasty runner, despite his injury history and spike games a season ago. When Ajayi was instilled as the team’s starter last season, the Dolphins offense changed for the better and they landed a playoff spot. This season, they’ve already lost quarterback Ryan Tannehill and projecting how the offense will change under recently retired and unretired Jay Cutler is difficult. With a serious knee injury is his past and a concussion already this off-season, I just can’t trust Ajayi at a second-round startup valuation. If his trade value is anywhere close to his startup draft value, I would be an aggressive seller. – Ryan McDowell

David Johnson, RB ARI

It’s tough, but I have a hard time seeing Johnson’s value ever getting higher than it is right now. The Cardinal offense is declining. Palmer, Fitzgerald and Arians are on their way out. Sell Johnson now for a haul, profit and set yourself up for years to come. – Anthony Santigate

Eli Manning, QB NYG

Now is the time to sell Eli Manning. His value won’t get much higher and if he starts as bad as he did last season, it will fall like a stone. With Odell Beckham Jr., Sterling Shepherd, Evan Engram, and Brandon Marshall he has solid weapons, and he hasn’t proven to be on the decline.  – Mike Valverde

Allen Robinson, WR JAC

With a dynasty ADP of 15 overall. ARob’s value may never be higher than it is now. This season is looking like a disaster waiting to happen with Blake Bortles throwing the ball. He’s a free agent after this season, but even a great landing spot still leaves you a chance to buy him back at what should be a discount compared to his current price. – Nick Canzanese

Corey Coleman, WR CLE

Last year the popular pick 1.02 struggled in his rookie year outside of burning Sharice Wright. Baylor players historically have really struggled transitioning to the NFL as they have a limited route tree, never block in school, and are taught to take plays off. Coleman is still viewed highly in the community, but another slow start could kill his value. He posted an abysmal 45.2% catch rate his rookie year and didn’t reach 40 yards in seven of ten games. A player with upside can always be a hard player to sell, but this could be the last time you can get serious value for him. – Eliot Crist

Rob Gronkowski, TE NE

Gronk is a monster when he plays, there is no question about it. The problem key word there is “when” he plays. The wrecking-ball tight end has played more than 11 games just once since the start of the 2012 season, and all his ailments will eventually start taking a toll on him. On top of that, even though Tom Brady hasn’t shown any signs of aging, he is entering his age-40 campaign, and we can look at Peyton Manning’s final year to see how quickly it can go when it goes. There are a lot of red flags here, and with Gronk still valued as roughly a top-20 overall player, now is a great time to shop him. – Austan Kas

Hunter Henry, TE LAC

We know his efficiency is going to suffer in 2017 (eight touchdowns from 36 catches is clearly unrepeatable), but the story goes his additional volume will compensate for it.  I’m not so sure of that.  Henry failed to record either five catches or 45 receiving yards in any game after October 13th last season.  Antonio Gates has slowed, but he’s still Philip Rivers’ favorite pair of hands.  Mike Williams is going to grab some balls too.  Even if things go right for Hunter Henryn his current price is that of TE4n which is crazy. In most formats he finished outside of the top 25 last season even with that amazing TD ratio.  – Tom Kislingbury

Kenny Golladay, WR DET

There’s no such thing as a true “dynasty sell” because selling/trading a player always comes down to the price someone is willing to pay for you assets. We always preach “sell high” and no one seems to be hotter at the moment than Lions rookie wide receiver Kenny Golladay. Anytime you can get a boat load of future first round draft picks for an unproven rookie WR, you have to test the market even if that rookie is unquestionably the greatest WR to ever lace up cleats in the NFL. Okay, sarcasm got the best of me there, but seriously, you should always test the market with your scorching hot players. I’m not saying sell Golladay for any price, but I am emphasizing test the market when someone is willing to overpay for today’s sizzling star. – Leo Paciga

Rob Gronkowski, TE NE

His stock has already started to slip a little bit. He was a late first round pick last year, and now he’s a late second round pick. I expect the decline to continue because he just can’t stay healthy. Him getting older isn’t going to help that fact. Yes, he’s dynamic when he is on the field, but you just can’t count on him. – Jacob Feldman

Jay Ajayi, RB MIA

I don’t believe in him as a long-term dynasty asset due to myriad health concerns and am happy to cash out while the return is so rich. – Curtis Patrick

Mike Evans, WR TBevans

He’s a player whose value can’t get any higher, but we may have already seen the best from him. Don’t hate me because I look at efficiency. Yes, he’s a great player – huge, fast, and can leap tall buildings, but he’s already valued as a locked-in dynasty WR1 in every format right behind the big three. So if his play becomes efficient on fewer targets, I doubt you’ll get more for him later than you could now. If his inefficiency keeps up, and his numbers fall, he could easily lose some value as well. – Peter Howard

Jay Ajayi, RB MIA

Jay Ajayi had some tremendous games last season, but besides that, he was a very average running back. Outlier games that prop up season-long statistics are one of my red flags for future production. On top of that, his knee could break down at any time. I have zero Ajayi shares, but if I did I would be selling him now before his value falls off a cliff. – Kyle Holden

Rob Gronkowski, TE NE

“Gronk” is approaching thirty, with a sordid injury history, and a team option in his contract after 2017 — right before the big money kicks in. The Patriots aren’t the type to throw good money at a player who’s averaged 5.6 missed games over the past five years. The tight end renaissance will bring you plenty of dynamic options in the draft and free agency over the next few seasons. It’s time to cash out.   – Mo Brewington

DeAndre Hopkins, WR HOU

In 2016, Hopkins saw 151 targets but was held under 1,000 yards. If that wasn’t bad enough, he only had four touchdowns finishing as the WR26. While Brock Osweiler was horrid, Tom Savage and Deshaun Watson won’t provide immediate relief. History has not been kind to wide receivers being supported by a rookie quarterback. Expect Hopkins to have a similar 2017 as his 2016 performance finishing outside the top 24 WRs. His August DLF ADP of 11 overall is way too rich. – Kevin O’Brien

Jay Ajayi, RB MIA

I’m getting on board here with a couple of others on selling Ajayi, especially now because his value won’t ever be higher.  I’ve sold all my shares and am completely content with my return – one package included Joe Mixon.  It’s all about capitalizing profit here, and with the new stable of backs coming in 2018, what’s the chances of Ajayi keeping his job? – Bee Salamat

Sammy Watkins, WR LAR

Not only is he my “sell” target for 2017, I’ve backed up my words with actions in every league, selling him across the board.  See my reasoning in my “bust” category. – Jeff Haverlack

Michael Crabtree, WR OAK

This space is reserved for a high-acclaimed aging veteran poised to fall off the cliff.  All signs are pointing toward Michael Crabtree being this guy.  Look for the Raiders to replace him after this season. – Bob Brannon

DeMarco Murray, RB TEN

Although Todd Gurley is set pretty well not to produce in 2017, the community narrative that it’s not his fault will almost certainly carry over, so his value is safe. Instead, I’ll (painfully) go with DeMarco Murray. He’s 29, so nearly all of his fourth-round ADP value is derived from producing this season. However, Derrick Henry is breathing down his neck already and could conceivably supplant Murray as the lead dog before the season even ends. It’d be smart to move win-now investment to a player less likely to get dethroned, such as LeSean McCoy. – Steve Gill

Ezekiel Elliott, RB DAL

Unless his stock continues to fall, I think Elliott’s risk is too much for me to absorb on my rosters. He’s currently still the third running back drafted, which means he’s going ahead of players like Devonta Freeman, Ajayi, Jordan Howard, Melvin Gordon, and Leonard Fournette. While missing six games isn’t enough to impact his long-term value, the reasoning for the suspension and his propensity for off-field issues make his value too shaky at that price. – Eric Dickens

Jordy Nelson, WR GB

He might be a top five wide receiver in 2017, but he is 32 years old.  Ageism is real in dynasty fantasy football, but we all know this tale.  Wide receivers are simply a massive risk at this age and moving forward, yet he is still in the top 30 or 40 players in terms of value depending on what resource you look at.  Sell him for someone you like that isn’t an asset guaranteed to depreciate while you still can. – Trevor Bucher

Keenan Allen, WR LAC

I don’t care that his injuries were flukey. I don’t care that two decades ago he got 7,000 targets that one time. You can’t count on him. His name is worth more than his actual production. Go ahead and let someone else overpay for him and grab someone better for cheaper. – Doug Green

C.J. Anderson, RB DEN

The offensive line isn’t considered a strength for the Denver Broncos. The team also has issues at the quarterback position which could order some unfavorable game scripts for Anderson. Not to mention, Devontae Booker and Jamaal Charles will be competing for touches out of the backfield. – Bruce Matson

Jordy Nelson, WR GBnelson

Barring injury, I believe Nelson will finish as a WR1 in 2017. Having said that, I think now is the time to consider moving him. He’s 32 years old and relies heavily on speed and downfield ability. This is a situation where I’d rather sell a year too soon than a year too late. If I own him and don’t think I have a legitimate chance of winning it all this year I’d start shopping him. . – Eric Olinger

Brandin Cooks, WR NE 

Good luck figuring out when his productive weeks will be in this offense. – Matt Price

Travis Kelce, TE KC 

It’s not that Kelce isn’t a great player. It’s simply that the expectations might not match the future production. Although he was the ‘TE1’ last year, he’s not been better than the rest of the pack at actually having high-scoring games. I’m fine with holding or having him on my team, but I don’t think you’ll receive a greater windfall than now, when he has just finished at the top and holds a top-31 ADP. – James Simpson

Jarvis Landry, WR MIA

I am still seeing Landry in the second round of some startups, and I just cannot pay the price.  Miami has looked hesitant to make a huge commitment to him, and if the Dolphins continue to lean on their run game his volume will disappear, especially if the Dolphins start winning more regularly.  I’d rather look elsewhere for my WR1 or WR2. – Rob Willette

Amari Cooper, WR OAK

I just don’t think his price justifies his value, and I don’t know if it ever will. I just don’t see a WR1 just under the surface as some other analysts do. I think we will all soon realize that he’s a really, really good #2 to have, but I think we’ll stop pricing him as a top five WR asset. Now is still a great time to get top dollar for Cooper. – Ryan Finley

Tom Brady, QB NE

While it’s hard to bet against the goat, age is undefeated and Brady is showing some greys in those steely eyebrows. I’d be looking to seek to a strong contender looking for that piece for a title run. – Dwayne Brown

Ezekiel Elliott, RB DAL

I’m already concerned about him long-term. While his talent is undeniable, his track record is starting to be just as important. With as much capital as you have invested in him, I’d much rather have an elite wide receiver or a running back who I feel I can count on more. – Ken Kelly

Davante Adams, WR GB

Adams is better than we all thought, but I don’t think he is good enough to justify his current asking price. With Randall Cobb healthy and Martellus Bennett in town, there is virtually no chance Adams matches 2016’s 121 targets or 12 scores. As good as the third year player is, without last year’s volume or red zone work, he is bound to take a big step back statistically. 70/900/7 is a fine stat line, but those numbers will create a lot of disappointed owners in dynasty land. – Jeff Miller

Julius Thomas, TE MIA

Gone are the days of Thomas’ heyday when he was catching passes from possibly the greatest quarterback ever. His stint in Jacksonville wasn’t anything to write home about either, but now in Miami he could be about to fall off a cliff fantasy-wise. The Dolphins aren’t known for a heavy reliance on tight ends – just look at Jordan Cameron who went from the next big thing at the position to retired in a few short years. I think this is where tight ends go to die, sorry Thomas owners out there. – The FF Ghost

AJ Green, WR CIN

I always have a hard time with picking a sell, I think everyone’s book is still open or they are better off just retiring on your roster. I picked AJG because he’s 29 and still a mid first round startup pick. If you could flip him for Michael Thomas, you’d be making a killing. Get out now, a bad year and he could have a massive value plummet. – Adam Tzikas

Jarvis Landry, WR MIA

He’s coming off another high volume year, but with gunslinger Jay Cutler under center he should lose a ton of targets (and therefore fantasy points) on short-area throws. Add in new off-the-field concerns, and that these issues could cast a shadow over his impending free agency, and his dynasty floor is waiting to drop out. – Joe Redemann

Davante Adams, GB WR

At 30th overall in ADP, Adams stands out as being overdrafted. Given how his career production has been a rollercoaster so far, and consequently an up-and-down trust relationship with his quarterback, I can’t justify spending such an early pick on Adams. Factor in the addition of Martellus Bennett and likely increase in touches for Ty Montgomery, and even the potential decline in production for Jordy Nelson doesn’t necessarily spell fantasy goodness for Adams. If you can get third round startup value, jump on it. – Jaron Foster

Final Vote Count

  • Jay Ajayi – 4 votes
  • Rob Gronkowski – 3
  • Ezekiel Elliott, Jordy Nelson, Jarvis Landry, Davante Adams – 2
  • David Johnson, Eli Manning, Allen Robinson, Corey Coleman, Hunter Henry, Kenny Golladay, Mike Evans, DeAndre Hopkins, Sammy Watkins, Michael Crabtree, DeMarco Murray, Keenan Allen, CJ Anderson, Brandin Cooks, Travis Kelce, Amari Cooper, Tom Brady, Julius Thomas, AJ Green – 1 vote


ken kelly