DLF Player Value Toolkit

Curtis Patrick Posted On September 6, 2017

There are many different ways the dynasty community attempts to determine the worth of a player. Average draft position, monitoring recent trades (or using trade calculators), individual expert ranks, and consensus ranks are some of the common ways we try to assess a player’s market position. I use all of these tools, in addition to my value machine, to create what I call player value. I believe this term fully encapsulates the variables at play and I offer the following as a definition:

Player value – a player’s dynasty worth when considering his NFL team situation, common assessment tool data (including ADP, recent trades in similar leagues, consensus expert ranks) and value machine metrics (production, years from age of decline, draft pedigree, risk, and opportunity).

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Consider this scenario: Owner A and Owner B are discussing a trade. Owner A makes an offer to Owner B which he views as fair and helpful to both parties. Owner B doesn’t even take the offer seriously; he can’t believe Owner A wasted his time. This happens every day across thousands of leagues and I submit that it happens because each owner places more weight on certain aspects of overall player valuation. Owner A may think ADP trends are the most important indicator of player value. Owner B may think ADP is overly reactive and prefers consult consensus expert rankings when making trade decisions. Since ADP is more indicative of the overall market right now and expert ranks are typically have a player’s future value baked in, these owners are going to have a difficult time finding common ground in most trade deliberations.

Further complicating matters, each dynasty owner is capable of placing more emphasis on a different value tool based on his or her current team situation. In other words, the language or tools you’ve typically used with a trade partner could be a moving target over the course of a season depending on their team’s competitiveness. I’ve also known owners who will flip between value tools from trade offer to trade offer based on which one makes their offer appear fairest.

Adding yet another layer of complexity to the player value equation is time. Values are constantly changing, and any news blurb or NFL transaction can create a ripple effect. The moment you think you fully grasp a player’s value, it could have already changed. You might be in the middle of a trade negotiation or startup draft, or you might have just dropped a player. The struggle is very real. The takeaway here is that player value is dynamic. The best we can do is to evaluate a player using every tool at our disposal to make the best assessment possible with the information at hand. Here are some of the best resources to aid with that process:

DLF ADP – average draft position data consisting of 20 round startup mock drafts involving a combination of DLF analysts and passionate volunteer drafters from the dynasty community. Updated monthly year-round.

DLF Expert Rankings – top 200 overall and positional ranks from a team of DLF experts. Users can view as consensus ranks, or may sort and filter ranks using their favorite experts to generate a unique average rank.

Dynasty Cornerstone Rankings – rankings of the best young dynasty players from the previous two NFL draft classes, along with the players who we anticipate will declare in the next NFL rookie draft class. This offers a unique comparison and insight into the relative value of young stars and upcoming rookie draft picks.

The Player Rater Podcast – a pod dedicated to the topic of player value hosted by Curtis Patrick and Ryan McDowell. Listeners can observe how Curtis and Ryan use player valuation tools to make roster decisions and compare players.

DLF Newswire Widget – tool which will allow you to monitor the latest NFL and fantasy football news on your desktop computer. Also exists in Twitter feed form; follow @DLF_PlayerNews

DLF Trade Finder – tool which allows user to query trades made within a defined time frame based on user-defined league settings such as number of teams and scoring rules. Sourced from My Fantasy League dynasty transaction log.

Player ADP Comparison – graphic visualization of a player’s ADP movement over time which may also be used to compare multiple players. Sourced from DLF ADP.

In addition to these tools, DLF is in the process of making my machine values available for subscriber use.

Moving forward, I’ll be authoring a series called Player Value which will be a behind-the-scenes look of how I complete the player valuation processes associated with creating ranks, comparing players, and identifying trade and waiver wire targets. You’ll also begin to see and hear the term player value more often in other DLF content.

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