Last Minute Dynasty Buys: Inexpensive Adds for Your Win-Now Team

In our constant chase for value and securing long term assets, we must also be mindful of remembering why we are playing in the first place: to win. Not to win in three years (although we also want to win then too), but to win now.

There are far too many owners out there that are treating dynasty assets like a Pokémon card collection. What do I mean by this? There’s more to a player’s actual value than his ADP rank. If your team is in a win-now situation, oftentimes an aged contributor will provide more value to your team than the prospect du jour, and the appropriate move would be to secure the cash payout from the current season. There is no prize for having the sexiest seventh place team, nor will there ever be.

To be clear, I’m not advocating selling the farm and going all in for any given year, but each year there should be a hayloft in a barn on your farm for rent to make sure you’re maximizing current year output. Whether you have a surefire playoff team that’s shallow after its starters or have a dominator with a positional hole, why leave anything to chance?

Below I will illustrate a list of players to target to supplement scoring output on your playoff team or better squads. The intent here is who to buy without selling the farm so I will keep the list to those projected to cost less than a first round rookie pick or equivalent.

[am4show have=’g1;’ guest_error=’sub_message’ user_error=’sub_message’ ]

The 49ers Offense

Yes, all of it. The gist here is we all know what Kyle Shanahan brings to the table, and last week’s preseason game was a confirmation of sorts. The starters looked great-to-dominant against a stout Vikings defense on the road and it appears the skill position players will be utilized as expected.

Brian Hoyer is currently without an ADP rank on DLF and is highly likely to be available on waivers in your league. I know this feels like a “hot taek” on the surface but I think Hoyer easily returns QB2 production and he is free or near-free. Carlos Hyde is someone I was conflicted on mentioning as he almost certainly costs a first round pick but he will be heavily utilized in both the pass and run games and health is his only obstacle from returning RB1 value as Shanny’s feature back. Think arbitrage Devonta Freeman here.

Now, we get to my favorite buy on the team: Pierre Garcon. Sporting a DLF ADP of 88, he looks to be a difference making WR1/WR2 based on his current price. He can be had for a second rounder (and oftentimes less, but that was probably earlier in the off-season) which seems like quite a bargain for a player who is familiar with the scheme, looks very comfortable in it and will… wait for it… push for the league lead in targets in 2017. If the preseason is any indication, Hoyer and Garcon have a chemistry and Garcon will be used similarly to 2015 Julio Jones in Atlanta, who saw 203 targets in Shanny’s first year on the job.

The other wide receiver you should be plucking off your wavier wire or sending a fourth rounder for, is Marquise Goodwin. Much like Hoyer, his ADP of 267 makes him free or near-free and projected to be third on the team in targets behind Garcon and Hyde. Also he’s a Garcon injury away from claiming a wealth of targets – certainly someone to stash at cost. I am not bullish about George Kittle here for two reasons. The first is I’m well documented and dug in on my stance that counting on rookie year production from any tight end at all is a foolhardy and egregiously low percentage endeavor. That would be enough for me, but the escalated price tag after the Vance McDonald trade puts him firmly in the “sell high” category for me.

The 49ers are the team I’m most excited for and wanted to give them their own dedicated section, I’m going to break up the remaining players by price range as follows with admittedly very generic ranges:

Second round price – ADP ranging from 90 to 150

Third round price – ADP ranging from 150 to 210

Fourth round price – ADP ranging from 210 to undrafted

Second Round Price

Kyle Rudolph, TE MIN – ADP 95

Last year’s leader in targets at the tight end position and TE2 in scoring is currently being drafted behind two players that have not yet played an NFL down in OJ Howard and Evan Engram and only two slots ahead of another in David Njoku. This is madness at its finest, and a prime example of Pokémon card collection among dynasty assets. The Vikings made no significant additions to their pass catching corps in the off-season, return the same quarterback and system and leave absolute zero reason to believe anything about Rudolph’s role changes. Additionally, at 27 years old, he’s not at the end of his career. Again, this price screams madness.

Tom Brady, QB NE – ADP 96 and Drew Brees, QB NO – ADP 107

I don’t have to explain these two. If you have a hole at quarterback as the only hole on an otherwise great team, the answers are easy and are listed above.

Doug Martin, RB TB – ADP 104

Just two years removed from over 320 touches and over 1,600 total yards, all reports and preseason usage indicates Doug will return to his feature role (after he serves his three game suspension). Additionally, all accounts and interviews with Doug himself point to him having his life in better order and having a renewed focus on football.

Terrance West, RB BAL – ADP 142

Kenneth Dixon’s unfortunate season ending injury will thrust West into a high volume role for the Ravens. While West is very much JAG (just a guy), carries are carries and targets are targets at the running back position, and this is a role widely undervalued by the community. He can likely be had with a cherry on top for a second rounder or perhaps even less. Although an unsexy player, buy on the role.

Third Round Price

Ben Roethlisberger, QB PIT – ADP 161

Whether it’s his tendency to be dinged up or the musings over retirement in the off-season, his value has fallen too far. He has the best arsenal of weaponry in the NFL and is a surefire QB1 with unlimited ceiling. Health will be his only obstacle in what has the makings of a career year.

Ted Ginn, WR NO – ADP 167

Despite the wants of many owners for Sean Payton to change his scheme to make it fit slow Willie Snead’s talents better, Ginn will operate as the number two option for Drew Brees in 2017. Many owners jump at the thought of parting with him for a third round pick so he is definitely one to inquire about. There will be multiple WR1 weeks here.

ArDarius Stewart, WR NYJ – ADP 177

Why is there a rookie on this list? Simply put, because he needs to be. My projection to lead the Jets in targets this year, and potentially for a decade, he’s worth every bit of a future second rounder. If he can be had for less, that would be even sweeter.

Fourth Round Or Less Price

Darren Sproles, RB PHI – ADP 223

He’s caught at least 40 balls each of the last eight seasons and has caught at least 52 in six of those eight. Considering the lack of ability at the RB position in Philly, he could be in for his biggest season yet in Philly in a more overall potent offensive attack. Bordering on free, he’s a great insurance policy to shore up your RB corps.

Javorius Allen, RB BAL – ADP Undrafted

Much like West, without Dixon, Allen is the next man up as the passing down back. Additionally he is likely the primary handcuff to West. Probably on waivers in your league, he almost certainly is a better stash than someone already on your roster.

Ben Watson, TE BAL – ADP 259

Another Ravens player likely on waivers in your league, his rehab and body will dictate just how far he will go this season. He faces nothing in the way of positional competition and if his body allows it, could see huge and widely unexpected target numbers on an offense devoid of quality pass catchers.

I want to reiterate, I’m not advocating you buy *all* of these guys. Nor half of them and probably not even a quarter of them. I’m simply pointing in the direction to sniff to reinforce your contending team. Good luck in your trade talks and on the upcoming season!

[/am4show]