2017 IDP Predictions Megabattle: What Will Happen this Season?

Tom Kislingbury

Trying to work out who knows the most in our sport is a tough thing to do. We can all argue about our own particular beliefs and foibles and favourite players all day. If it was clear cut who is good and who isn’t, it would be a boring sport to talk about. We can’t simply say the winner of any particular league knows more, because so many other things go into actually playing the game of fantasy. We all only remember the things we get right and forget all the times we’re wrong, so we’re all convinced we know best. I’ve lost count of the number of people who’ve told me that they have a fantastic record identifying hit players or breakouts or seeing misses before everyone else. In reality, we’re all wrong loads. We just don’t remember it.

Rankings and projections are an interesting way to try and track accuracy, but both are difficult to gauge. How do you score either of those? Is one great prediction and one bad one better than two vaguely accurate predictions? It’s just another type of argument really.

So I wanted to try and have a go at coming up with a way to see how much (or little) we can predict in the IDP world in particular. To help me out, I enrolled seven plucky volunteers:

fig x predictors

I then wrote out 100 questions about IDPs in 2017. All questions were very clear true or false questions with no room for misunderstanding. I wrote three questions for each NFL team which gave me 96 questions, and then added four more to make it a hundred.

With 100 questions, I feel like the base should be big enough to see who is best at predicting the future. With fewer questions, you could just get lucky, but hopefully here real skill and intelligence should prevail. I hope that all of the humans involved can beat the random control (in additional to a flat 50 score which is the benchmark in an either/or test). We will find out at the end of the season, but I wanted to put the questions out so you can do it yourself if you like and rate your predictions against my guinea pigs.

So let’s detail the questions, shall we? I’ll break them out four teams at a time with the % the respondents agreed with them. Please bear in mind these were answered in July so already a couple of situations have changed.

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Chandler Jones has some shade thrown on him here with almost half the predictors thinking he’ll fail to reach ten sacks. The group are also pretty sure that Haason Reddick will be a fixture immediately.

Very few people think the Ravens have a shot at having any pass rusher hit those numbers. And almost half think CJ Mosley will not be a tackle monster. It’s worth noting that Mosley had just 56 solo tackles last season.

When I wrote these questions Reggie Ragland was a hit pick. He has since been traded. This is a great example of how tough it is to predict things in the NFL.

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The Panthers defensive end situation is fascinating. They were clearly not happy with Kony Ealy but the remaining players are not enormously convincing either. We think it’ll be a committee approach.

Almost everyone thinks Joey Bosa will kick on in his second season. Given how good he was, this would justify his reputation as a young star.

I often see Nick Kwiatkoski on the rosters of people asking for IDP advice. This result would suggest he is likely droppable for now.

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As has been the case all off-season there is no consensus on Jabrill Peppers. At the moment we just don’t know how he’s going to pan out.

Absolutely no one has any faith in Jeff Heath. Some people believe in him on the strength of one good playoff game, but he’s shown very little over his career.

There’s also scepticism/uncertainty about Lions players. Ziggy Ansah and Miles Killebrew both have very low floors. You shouldn’t be relying on either of them in an idea world in 2017.

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I hope none of you are falling for the Packers linebacker hype. I don’t care who is wearing the green dot or listed as a starter. The team will use multiple options. If you need a LB4, then one if them might be okay, but in most league’s they’re not going to be good assets.

Almost everyone here is bullish about JJ Watt’s return. He’s going to be healthy and fit and back to his usual dominant self.

Sean Spence was one of my off-season crushes. At this stage, it looks like I’ll have to accept I was pretty wrong. This happens a lot to all of us in the IDP world. If anyone tells you they’re always right, exercise extreme caution.

There’s a distinct lack of faith in Dante Fowler in this group too. He certainly has some talent, but the injury and an extremely questionable attitude make it look increasingly likely he never fulfils his potential.

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Oops! The Marcus Peters question was supposed to read “30+ combined PDs/INTs”. He should hit ten by October. We’re keen on Justin Houston here too. A bounce-back is coming.

The Dolphins questions were written before Raekwon McMillan’s injury. I feel for him and no one likes injuries, but I was never on that bandwagon for 2017.

No one here fancies any Vikings rookies to play big roles. Mike Zimmer is maybe the most rookie-averse coach in the NFL.

Elandon Roberts is another player I see on a lot of rosters. I think he’ll show he’s an excellent NFL player at what he does (stop the run), but he doesn’t have the skillset to play all three downs – which will limit his IDP usefulness.

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Interestingly, AJ Klein did not manage much support here. The Saints LB corps is a bit of a mess but they signed him to be a major player, and I’m sure you’ll remember how effective LBs have been on that team.

Similarly to the Saints and Packers, there is widespread disbelief that any Giants LB will be a fixture. There’s a lot of BJ Goodson hype going around, but take it with a pinch of salt.

With the Jets, Jamal Adams is a fascinating prospect. He’s clearly a top talent, but I’ve stayed away, thinking he’ll be used to cover the slot a lot (I think he’s a similar player to Patrick Chung). In preseason he’s played in the box a lot, so he might be significantly better than I’ve thought.

Khalil Mack is one of the best pass rushers in the sport. But to be honest, I think he has a lower ceiling than some others due to scheme. Could Von Miller or JJ Watt record 20+ sacks? Definitely. Could Mack? Im’ not sure it’s very likely at all. You can see about half of the people here think he won’t even make it to 15.

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The Eagles defensive line is going to be monstrous under Jim Schwartz. Whether one dominant player will emerge is debatable but it’ll be really fun to watch.

The group were bullish on James Harrison over TJ Watt but that was before preseason. I’d be interested to see the results for this now.

Everyone assumes Aaron Donald is going to be an all-pro here. If he holds out much longer that might be a mistake for us all.

There’s a high amount of support for Frank Clark here. Given he’s a suspension waiting to happen and Michael Bennett is super consistent, this is slightly odd to me.

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Reuben Foster is a great talent but the predictors seem to think it’s still NaVorro Bowman’s team for 2017 at least.

Lavonte David might be a buy for me. Everyone knows he struggled last season, but he still finished around LB12-15. Nearly half of this group believe he can still be a top 12 option.

Note the lack of support for Logan Ryan. He went from an ideal situation to one that’s much less appealing. If you own him, now is the time to sell for whatever you can get.

I’m shocked Su’a Cravens received no votes for a Pro Bowl berth here. He’s still a good talent and that starting strong safety spot is a plum job. I think he’ll be a pleasant surprise (although clearly I voted for him to not be a Pro Bowler too).

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Any rookie getting close to eight sacks is a major achievement. It’s fairly rare for it to happen at all but this year’s crop of DEs is a good one.

Interceptions as a whole have been declining recently. It just makes Night Train Lane’s 14 in his rookie season ever more incredible.

Interestingly, most people in this group think someone will reach 120 solo tackles. That’s a very high figure. In total tackles (i.e. including assists) it’s very achievable, but maybe not solos in this era of quick passes and nickel packages.

So that’s it. It should be fun to go through this after the season is over and see how we all did. Feel free to keep track of your own scores at home and let me know how much of a genius you are.

I can’t wait for the season to start.

@Tom Degenerate

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tom kislingbury