32 Teams, 32 Questions: The AFC West

Ken Kelly

It’s preseason time, which means we get to see all 32 teams doing something at least relatively meaningful. It also means there are only a few days left until the rosters and depth charts are set for the start of the year. We’re taking a trip around the league to look at all 32 teams and address one of the biggest fantasy questions about each of them. After all, in terms of dynasty leagues, if you aren’t thinking about these things now you’re already behind.

The AFC West is an interesting division as you can make a case for every team in it making the playoffs. After all, Denver, Kansas City and Oakland have all had recent success and San Diego has a tremendous amount of talent – they’ve simply been decimated repeatedly with the injury bug over the past few years, stunting their development as a team. In short, this is a division with a lot of high quality fantasy football stars.

Each of these teams also has some relevant dynasty fantasy football questions that need to be explored, so let’s take a look at each of these franchises and explore one of those key questions.

Denver
How will the touches be distributed amongst this backfield?

There are a whole host of questions we could ask here, including just how much Trevor Siemian can improve or which receiver is most likely to emerge outside of Demaryius Thomas and Emmanuel Sanders. Instead, let’s focus on the running backs.

Dynasty league veterans can remember the days of the “Shanahanigans,” where a seemingly unknown runner would enter the one-cut zone blocking system and become an overnight sensation. Players like Olandis Gary, Mike Anderson, Reuben Droughns and a whole host of others became household names almost overnight. While it was fun to see one of them emerge, every season seemed to be a nightmare for dynasty owners as we were constantly in search of the “next big thing” in the Denver backfield.

Fast forward a few years and the backfield is still very much in flux for dynasty owners.

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CJ Anderson is the presumptive starter. However, we saw him start there last season and have his season cut short by injury. He’s been a solid runner throughout his four years in Denver but has never had more than 179 carries in a season and it’s fair to wonder how he’ll hold up.

Jamaal Charles has been one of the best running backs in fantasy and reality over the past decade. He’s seemingly healthy again and ready to be the change of pace back in the Denver offense. However, if he’s truly healthy, he offers dynamic ability Anderson simply doesn’t have. If his knees hold up, Denver won’t be able to keep him off the field. The problem is “truly healthy” has been a real challenge for him over the past two years as he’s been able to appear in only eight games in those two seasons.

Devontae Booker was supposed to be a key to the Denver offense for years to come but he’s been simply unimpressive thus far in his career. Last year, he was only able to average 3.5 yards per carry and looked like a pedestrian talent most times. He’s also battling a fractured wrist that will keep him out for the first few weeks of the season, which certainly doesn’t help his cause.

As if that wasn’t confusing enough, the Broncos now have De’Angelo Henderson, a sixth round draft pick who has done nothing but impress the Denver brass from the second he’s arrived. He has a great opportunity to carve out a spot on the roster, especially with a solid showing in week four of the preseason. That was something that seemed like a longshot a few months ago but is now quite a reality. The Broncos really like Henderson so you have to believe he’ll have a spot. I love Henderson as a deep stash.

When you look at the veteran backs and their ADP, it’s clear Anderson is the one to own but I’m expecting the gap between Charles and Anderson to close a bit if Charles can show he’s healthy again.

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The purpose of these articles is really to uncover these questions, not answer them because they simply can’t be answered right now. However, my guess would be if there are 400 carries to go around, Anderson would get around 225, Charles would get around 125, Booker would get around 50 and Henderson is kept on ice for most of the year and only given a handful of carries. However, that’s in a world where nobody gets hurt and that’s simply not a world we live in.

Kansas City
What can we expect from Tyreek Hill now that he is playing receiver full-time?

Editor’s Note: We could easily cover Kareem Hunt here, but Peter Howard did a great job of it with his Opportunity Plays: Selective Tightrope Walking Across a Narrow Talent Canyon article today.

Tyreek Hill was a revelation last year as he emerged as one of the NFL’s most dynamic playmakers. Last season, he caught 61 passes for 593 yards and scored six touchdowns as a part-time player, while also adding 267 rushing yards and a handful of rushing and special teams touchdowns. He was simply electric and proved to be a steal in many dynasty rookie drafts. With the loss of Jeremy Maclin, Hill now moves into the role of full-time receiver and also becomes one of the Chiefs best weapons in the passing game, at least on paper.

The challenge we have now is the special teams touchdowns and production are likely going to be wiped away completely as Hill transitions to being a full-time receiver. Hill is also going to still be thrown to by Alex Smith, who is an underrated NFL quarterback but clearly one who doesn’t take a lot of chances downfield. Add to that the fact the best cornerback on each team is going to cover Hill and we have some serious challenges ahead, especially before Patrick Mahomes is ready to take over.

Hill’s current ADP indicates a player already being valued very highly. The price of his emergence is seemingly built in to his ADP and there’s not a ton of room to grow without him truly becoming a superstar. With his preseason struggles so far and the questions around his development, Hill could be in position to disappoint owners who spend a third round startup pick on him – a price that could very well be his ceiling.

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LA Chargers
What kind of value will Hunter Henry provide?

Hunter Henry was great last year in San Diego (sadly, the last time I may be able to type San Diego in an article) with 36 catches for 478 yards and eight touchdowns. With Hall of Famer Antonio Gates seemingly nearing the end of his career (he’ll set the all-time record for touchdown receptions by a tight end this year and likely call it quits after the season), Henry’s time is near.

The challenge here is Henry is already the TE6 with an ADP that has skyrocketed all the way to the fifth round.

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With an ADP that high, his value (much like that of Hill) is already baked into the price. To take Henry this highly in a startup draft or pay this kind of a premium for him, one would have to be completely convinced he’s the next big thing at the position. While there are true difference makers like Rob Gronkowski, Jordan Reed and Travis Kelce, there are a precious few tight ends who really emerge out of the second tier to become truly elite fantasy assets. The chance of him being elite is certainly there but it’s also possible he becomes a really good option that gets overpaid for.

Those who were fortunate enough to draft Henry clearly got themselves a nice bargain – they’re the real winners. However, those who didn’t are left to pay what very well could be above market prices.

Oakland
Is there an heir apparent to Marshawn Lynch on the roster?

When Marshawn Lynch decided to come back to the Raiders, there was a collective sigh from owners of Jalen Richard and DeAndre Washington. After all, both of these young running backs have shown a lot of promise over the past year and the addition of Lynch will leave them battling for scraps. Add in another young running back in the form of the newly drafted Elijah Hood and this backfield is a mess behind Lynch.

The good news here is Lynch certainly isn’t a long-term answer for the Raiders. The question dynasty owners truly want answered is just who would be next. The challenge here is the Raiders don’t look like they know, either. When Lynch hasn’t played this season, Washington has started but Richard has played just about as much. Hood was held out early but should get a long look this week. The Raiders also reportedly love what he brings to the table. When you look at the ADPs of these backs, you can see none of them have truly separated themselves quite yet and the addition of Lynch has really flattened out their lines.

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While there are more questions than answers here, dynasty owners should watch this battle very closely. While it’s possible none of these players emerge as the first string running back for what will then be the Las Vegas Raiders, it’s also quite possible one of them could be a star in the making as they all have some real talent. As such, this will be a backfield I pay very close attention to all season.

There are lots of questions to be answered from the AFC West. The great thing is we’re just days away from the start of the season and many of these will finally be answered.

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ken kelly