32 Teams, 32 Questions: NFC South
It’s preseason time, which means we get to see all 32 teams doing something at least relatively meaningful. It also means there are only a few weeks left until the rosters and depth charts are set for the start of the season. We are going to take a little trip around the league and take a look at all 32 teams and address one of the biggest fantasy questions about each of them. After all, in terms of dynasty leagues, if you aren’t thinking about these things now you’re already behind.
Over the years, the NFC South has turned into a fantasy powerhouse. It is arguably the best division when it comes to quarterbacks, and it features some young rising stars like Mike Evans and Michael Thomas to go along with perennial superstars like Julio Jones. Don’t let that fool you into thinking we have it all figured out though, because there are a lot of questions we need to be considering when it comes to the NFC South.
Atlanta Falcons
Is the 2016 backfield production sustainable in 2017 and beyond?
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I still don’t think the Falcons have solved their pass catching depth chart issues, but I think the running back questions are a much more interesting one to look into right now. Last year, partially thanks to their lack of viable pass catches, the Falcons were able to support a pair of startable running backs. We all know about Devonta Freeman’s top ten finish for the position, but in PPR leagues Tevin Coleman was also a top 20 asset even though he missed three games in the middle of the season. A team having two top 20 backs in one year is pretty rare, which begs the question – can it be repeated this year and beyond?
Before we get into any of that, keep in mind that no one can forecast injuries. Lots of people try, but the truth is that they can happen to anyone at any point in time. So I’m going to ignore that part of the discussion. Yes, Coleman has shown a tendency to miss some time going all the back to his pre-NFL days. Freeman is also dealing with a multi-week concussion issue right now. Maybe the Falcons are just being extra careful since it is the pre-season, but we can’t be sure of that. So let’s call it a wash and work under the assumption that both of them are healthy.
During the 2016 season, the Falcons tried very hard to keep Freeman at or under 20 touches in a game. This was true even when Coleman missed time. In fact, the only times Freeman topped 20 touches in a game were weeks five, 15 and 16. For the first two, Freeman was given a higher than normal number of carries because the Falcons were trying to run out the clock. For the week sixteen game, he topped 20 touches only because he had eight receptions, which was a season high for him (he didn’t even top six targets in any other game). Coleman was healthy and active in all three of those games. It seems like Freeman definitely has a usage cap in the eyes of the coaching staff. Given his yards per carry, touchdown rate and him catching a few passes every game, I think last year is about what we can expect from him. The ceiling really isn’t much higher than what he already did, and the floor isn’t too far down either. He was a little inconsistent based on touchdowns, but that’s the life of a running back in the NFL. Unless the coaching staff suddenly changes their usage of him, I think he’s a top ten but not top five player at the position, with or without Coleman.
Coleman is the more interesting of the two from an analysis standpoint. When it comes to carries, Coleman was the clear second choice. He typically had about 40 percent of Freeman’s carries, so somewhere right around 10 carries a game, normally for about 40-50 yards. The interesting part here is Coleman had almost double the touchdown rate. A few of those were big plays, but I think the touchdown numbers are going to be a little difficult to sustain. In the passing game, Coleman was a bit more even to Freeman when it comes to usage. There is the perception out there that Coleman was the primary receiving back, but that really isn’t true. If you remove the three games Coleman was inactive, here is the passing game breakdown for the two:
| Player | Targets | Receptions | Yards | Touchdowns |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Freeman | 54 | 45 | 379 | 1 |
| Coleman | 40 | 31 | 421 | 3 |
Coleman was the more efficient pass catcher of the two in every way, but the difference between the two really wasn’t much.
Overall, I think this year could bring about the same barring a drastic injury to Freeman. Coleman getting hurt seems to have very little impact on Freeman, but if Freeman missed several games, there is a chance Coleman could take over the Freeman role and see a big bump in carries. If that doesn’t happen, I expect a touchdown regression from Coleman, probably making him more of a high end RB3 than the RB2 he was last year.
Long term, I don’t see much changing. Coleman is signed through 2018 and depending on his health could be out of the Falcons’ price range. If he does go elsewhere, I would expect the Falcons to draft someone else to fill his role. I don’t see Freeman’s role expanding past what it was last season.
Carolina Panthers
Can the receivers finally step up?
When it comes to the Panthers passing game, I feel like there are only two things that I actually “know”. First, Greg Olsen will catch about 80 passes for just over 1,000 yards and about six touchdowns. He has been the model of consistency over the last few years. Second, Christian McCaffrey is going to catch an awful lot of passes. In fact, I wouldn’t be surprised if McCaffrey is second on the team in receptions. I’m expecting at least 50 catches from him, but possibly topping 70 if the receivers struggle this season. Some might say I’m a little too high on him, but let me ask you this. Who else is going to catch the ball for the Panthers?
Last year, Olsen was the team leader in receptions, which really shouldn’t surprise anyone. For players designated as receivers, Kelvin Benjamin was the top target with 63 receptions followed by Ted Ginn with 54 receptions. No other player on the team topped 30 receptions last year. That is pretty bad, and one of the big reasons the Panthers were a bottom three team in the league last season when it comes to completions. It is very difficult to post a winning record if you can’t complete passes. To make matters worse for the Panthers, they lost Ted Ginn in free agency.
Where exactly does that leave them? The players currently on the Panthers wide receiver depth chart accounted for 90 receptions for the team last year. That’s it. To put this in perspective, 12 players last year had 90 or more catches by themselves last season. There is a lot of work for the Panthers’ receivers to do. Benjamin is likely the top receiver, but I’ve quite honestly never been very high on him. I think he is miscast as the top receiver on an NFL team. I think what he’s done in his two active seasons so far is about what we can expect from him. Right around 70 catches for 1,000 yards and eight touchdowns. I don’t see a ceiling that is too much higher than that. That leaves a lot of room for someone to step up.
The two leading candidates to step up seem to be Devin Funchess, who is drawing some nice reviews in training camp, and 2017 second rounder Curtis Samuel, who is struggling with injuries. When Funchess tallied only 31 receptions and 473 yards as a rookie, people were a little disappointed but wrote it off as simply being a rookie learning curve. When his second season was even worse with only 23 receptions and 371 yards to go with a less than 40 percent catch rate, it made the Panthers look for receiver help in the draft. When he was drafted in 2015, I didn’t like him and I still don’t like him now. He is another player who is miscast in his current role. Does that mean I think Samuel is the guy? Not exactly. Samuel definitely has the speed to concern defenses and the ability to take the top off, but I don’t see him as a consistent fantasy asset.
Overall, I think the Panthers are going to be looking for more receivers next year, either in the draft or free agency. I don’t see a true number one receiver on their team, and I fully expect Olsen to be the top target with McCaffrey possibly becoming the number two option. That really isn’t a recipe for success in today’s NFL. Sorry Panther fans.
New Orleans Saints
How will this three-headed monster in the backfield work out?
For a few years now, Mark Ingram has quietly been one of the better fantasy bargains at the position when he’s been healthy. After finally playing a full 16 games last year, the fantasy community was starting to catch on to him as an undervalued asset. You weren’t going to get top five numbers from him, but he was a fairly consistent producer on the ground who also happened to catch a fair number of passes. Then the bombshell dropped this spring when the Saints went out and signed one of the best ever Adrian Peterson. Granted, we are talking about a 32-year-old Peterson, but he is still a lock for the hall of fame as soon as he can be admitted. Not only that but the Saints then went on to draft rookie Alvin Kamara in the third round. Things are getting pretty crowded back there now.
With the potential exceptions of Tom Coughlin’s Giants or Bill Belichick’s Patriots, no team has perfected the running back by rotation system like Sean Payton’s Saints. Payton has become the master of keeping multiple running backs relevant to the game plan and to fantasy rosters. So there is actually hope for all three of these players. The question we need to answer is exactly what level of hope we should have for all of them.
If we were being completely honest with ourselves, we should have seen some of this coming. Ingram is going into his seventh year in the league, and last second was only the second one in his career where he’s played all sixteen games. The other was when he was a part time player back in 2012. His history pretty much forced the Saints’ hand when it comes to depth at the position. Kamara is a good pass catcher with some rushing ability as well, so he is a good fit behind Ingram should another injury occur. As for Peterson, I think that was more of a risk vs reward decision. Why not give him a try and see what he can do?
Last year, Ingram had a little over half of the rushes for the offense and about a third of the receptions tallied by running backs. He was able to turn that into a top ten finish at the position in PPR leagues. Do we really think Ingram is going to get fewer than half of the carries and a third of the receptions out of the backfield this year? I think if you asked most people their first answer might actually surpass those numbers. Overall, I think Ingram’s production, even with Peterson and Kamara, should remain pretty consistent with the past few years. If he is healthy, he’s a backend RB1 in PPR leagues.
What about Peterson? He has a long documented history of not being very involved in the passing game. Given that both Ingram and Kamara are above average in this area, I don’t expect Peterson to be very involved in that aspect. He is going to make his living on the first few downs and in short yardage. I think the latter is the real reason to pay attention for fantasy purposes. He’ll likely get close to 150 carries if Ingram is healthy, but a lot of those will be in short yardage. It wouldn’t surprise me if Peterson ends up with eight or more scores given the high powered Saints offense. This should put him on the RB3 radar. Should Ingram go down with an injury, this could of course spike and we could be looking at RB2 numbers from him.
Kamara is the trickiest one to forecast. I think he will primarily be used in a pass catching role this year. If Ingram is only getting about a third of the receptions and Peterson is getting almost none, that leaves a lot of passes for running backs to catch. This puts him on the radar in PPR leagues as a potential RB3 this season. I’m expecting about 50 receptions this season from him, but probably only about that many carries as well if everyone ahead of him stays healthy. His real value will come in a few years. If he shows well in the short term, he could take over the Ingram role in a few years.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Could the Bucs become the premier offense in the division?
In short, no, not yet. However, I only say that because a lot of their pieces need another year or two to really hit their stride. They have a lot of really, really good and talented players on their team. They just need to figure out how to make everything fit together. It also doesn’t help that they have a few juggernaut offenses in their division, so they could be the third best in their division and still be top ten in the entire league. Since I already squashed the hopes and dreams of them being the best in the division, how good can they actually become this year and in the future?
As we have all heard, it all starts with the quarterback position. Jameis Winston had a nice year last year with 4,090 yards passing and 28 touchdowns, but his completion percentage, yards per attempt, and interception rate are all in the bottom half of the league’s quarterbacks. That can’t happen if he is going to turn into a future superstar at the position. If you watched him last year, you saw glimpses of the superstar waiting to come out, but he also had some questionable decisions to go along with the occasional accuracy issues. A few more years of working on his mechanics and studying game tape should help him get to that next level. For a rebuilding team, there aren’t many other quarterbacks I would want on my roster ahead of him.
At the running back position, I’m a little less convinced they have the solution. People don’t realize that Doug Martin is already 28 years old. That is older than Mark Ingram who I just talked about. Between injuries and suspensions, he has struggled to play a full 16 games in a season. In fact, he’s only done it twice, one of which was his rookie season. Last year he hit career lows in just about everything. He only managed 2.9 yards per carry and had almost zero big plays. In fact, his longest run of the season was a 17 yard gain. His production and usage in the passing game has also declined after a spectacular rookie season, making him almost a non-factor in that part of the game. The future of the position could be someone already on roster, but they really aren’t much younger than Martin. This could be one of the best landing spots for a rookie rusher over the next few seasons.
When it comes to receivers, the Bucs are on the far opposite end of the spectrum. They have one of the best young true number ones in the game in Mike Evans. When you add in DeSean Jackson, they are in the running for the best one-two combo of receivers in the league. Evans should be able to hold steady as a perennial top five option at the position while Jackson should see a short term bump in value. Don’t get too crazy because he will turn 31 this season, but I think he could push for back end WR2 numbers this year with defenses focusing on Evans. Long term, the buzz has been pretty good around rookie Chris Godwin. We always need to be careful about rookie hype, but if it holds true, we could be looking at the future wingman for Evans.
The real difference in this offense from last year to this year might just come at the tight end position. Last year, Cameron Brate surprised almost everyone with a breakout season. He managed 57 receptions for 660 yards and eight scores. Not bad at all for the 25 year old who seemed to come out of no where. Add to the mix the most complete rookie tight end in the last few years in OJ Howard, and you have an explosive duo. I expect the Bucs to run two tight end sets the vast majority of the time, because having both Brate and Howard on the field with the rest of the offense provides some major mismatches. I expect Brate to hold fairly steady in terms of production for this season since rookie tight ends typically don’t produce much. However, I think Howard will really start to shine in the not too distant future.
Overall, I expect the offense to continue to trend upwards. They aren’t at the top yet, but they are definitely ascending. In another two or three years, it wouldn’t surprise me at all to see three if not four (depending on what they get at the running back position) of their skill position players in the top five at their respective positions. If that happens, you could make a case for them potentially being the best offense in the league.
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- Final 2021 Pre-Draft Rookie Mock: Round One - April 25, 2021
