Devil’s Tradevocate

Dan Sainio

Twitter, polls, and dynasty trades are the perfect combination to see the up-to-date value of players being traded on the open market. The trade itself shows what one person is willing to trade for another asset, and the poll will indicate how close the trade is based off of “market value”.

In this series, Dan Sainio and Nathan Powell will evaluate trades that appeared lopsided (65% or more votes on one side) and one of us will state the case for why it was a lopsided trade while the other takes the devil’s advocate point of view, arguing for the side with lesser amount of vote.

Amari Cooper, Josh Doctson and Corey Coleman

for

Antonio Brown and LeSean McCoy

Result: Antonio Brown side wins with 71%

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Why Twitter is right: Even though it should be closer than 71/29, I do believe twitter got this one correct. Proven production versus potential will forever be the balance we all struggle to find. While Brown and McCoy are both a little bit older, you can almost lock in (assuming health) top six production from each player at their position in 2017 with plenty of points to be had in the future. Brown has a real chance at another overall WR1 season, as well. McCoy’s situation gets shakier by the day as Buffalo continues to try and find a path for the present and future, but he’s going to produce no matter where he plays.

On the other side of this deal we have a young, elite, receiver with a sky-high ceiling. However, Amari isn’t coming close to Brown’s production as long as Crabtree is in town, so his short term ceiling is limited to low end WR1, high end WR2 production. Then we have the draft capital young wideouts who are both entering their sophomore campaign following underwhelming, injury-riddled, rookie seasons. While they each have solid upside, we don’t have much to go on aside from about 80 targets between the two of them.

Doctson’s short term outlook is grim, as he finds himself on a loaded depth chart and has a lot of catching up to do after missing quite a bit of time. Plus, we aren’t entirely sure who his quarterback will be in the future. Coleman, on the other hand, should see a fairly solid number of targets on a poor Browns team that will likely be playing from behind in most cases. Market tells us this is pretty fair, but Twitter is right on this one. – Dan

Devil’s Tradevocate: This is the perfect example of a win-now versus win-later trade and without seeing the rosters involved, this could easily end in a win-win trade for both sides. However, evaluating this trade strictly from a value perspective, I think the Cooper side comes out ahead despite the thoughts of the twitter poll voters.

Cooper and Brown are a wash for me. I prefer Cooper straight up due to the six year age gap and the brighter future at quarterback with Derek Carr versus Ben Roethlisberger who could retire as early as next off-season. I’ll admit, I am a Corey Coleman truther, but his trade value has far past where it should be if this is the going rate. Coleman was the 15th overall pick in the NFL draft and had 31 touchdowns in his last two seasons at Baylor before an injury-riddled rookie season with Josh McCown and company depleted his dynasty value. Even if you don’t like Coleman, he should be valued similarly to Lesean McCoy, which means there is basically a free shot at upside with Josh Doctson in this trade. It’s okay to make win now trades, but you don’t always have to sacrifice all of your young pieces to do so. – Nathan

Dalvin Cook

for

Michael Crabtree and Spencer Ware

Result: Dalvin Cook side wins with 70%

Why Twitter is right: Many of the concerns about Dalvin Cook’s health (shoulder) and drop in the draft (off the field/combine) have been quelled by an impressive training camp in Minnesota. Many expected Cook, Latavius Murray and Jerick McKinnon to be a three-headed backfield competition, but Cook’s play in training camp and preseason has shown he could very easily grab hold of a workhorse workload early on in the Minnesota backfield.

Spencer Ware can easily be supplanted midseason by Kareem Hunt, and eventually Michael Crabtree will have to give up some of those red zone targets to Amari Cooper as well as the regular age decline of a 29 year old wide receiver. Ware/Crabtree have an argument in a strict one year window, but beyond that, the value floor and ceiling of the impressive rookie in Dalvin Cook is higher than the pairing. – Nathan

Devil’s Tradevocate: Disclaimer: Twitter got this right, and it’s not close, but I’m going to do my darndest to fight Nathan with my word fists. Here we go… Dalvin Cook was the prized possession in this rookie class for a long time, and then the bottom seemingly fell out at the NFL combine. This caused Cook to fall, lose value, and then land on a team whose offensive line may protect better if it was swapped out with tackling dummies.

I don’t doubt Cook’s ability as a back, but the folks in the NFL hesitated at drafting him, and they’re much smarter than you or I. Ever since dynasty rookie draft season started, Cook has been going in the 1.05-1.06 range, and holding steady as the “leftovers” in the high end tier. It’s fine taking a back that the NFL faded a little, but why not grab a WR2 in a world ruled by wide receivers?

Crabtree has had a 25% target share over the last two seasons with Derek Carr at the helm, which led to WR17 and WR12 seasons respectively. I don’t see much changing in that offense, other than more pass attempts due to that defense being atrocious. Add in RB2 Spencer Ware to the equation, and you have a trade package that is going to help a contender out at two positions instead of hoping for a rookie to hit. And now I have a headache. Thanks a lot, Nathan. – Dan

LeSean McCoy and Eric Decker

for

Isaiah Crowell and Sterling Shepard

Result: McCoy side wins with 77%

Why Twitter is right: When there are no “elite”, top 24 type dynasty assets involved in a trade, it’s a lot easier to view the trade in a shorter term window. When the trade is involving four players going in the mid rounds of startups, I’m more likely to go with the side that is better from a win now point of view.

LeSean McCoy is certainly a better running than Crowell for the next one-two years and many would value him over Crowell no matter the window, even with the five year age gap. Looking at the wide receivers, I think people have overreacted to the Brandon Marshall signing in regards to Shepherds long term value, but I still think the immediate production and likely heavy red zone targets that Decker will see make this a win for the McCoy/Decker side. – Nathan

Devil’s Tradevocate: What did I do to deserve this? I’m going to have to have a chat with my agent to find me a co-author that’ll show some mercy. Alright, let me grab my tradevocate horns… Each side of this deal holds an overvalued asset, and an undervalued asset. Sterling Shepard’s value dive bombed when NYG brought in some stone washed denim known as Brandon Marshall. While he might hurt Shepard’s short term production, he has no effect on the long term outlook. Sterling accomplished something that only 11 other rookie WRs have accomplished since 1992 (when targets began to be recorded), according to Pro Football Reference: word image 12

That’s no small task, and should not be overlooked. Shepard is absolutely a buy right now, and you should contact your local shareholder.

The other piece here is the overvalued Isaiah Crowell, who has been going for high end RB2 prices in a timeshare with a talented Duke Johnson. Hue Jackson seems committed to getting Johnson more touches, and I just can’t find any room for growth for Crowell. However, it’s still more than reasonable to get mid/low end RB2 production from Crow, and we also should not look past that. On the Twitter favored side, we have another overvalued back on a below average team in Shady McCoy. I still expect solid, to great, production from him for the near future, but RBs are… RBs. Decker continues to fly under the radar at WR48 in the August ADP. He’s on a new, better team but is coming off of a major injury and turned 30 in March. Decker is a buy, but I have to stick with my overwhelming love for Shepard here. – Dan

Ezekiel Elliott (4 year contract), Jonathan Stewart (1) and 50% of blind bid waiver money

for

Allen Robinson (4), Chris Godwin (taxi squad – no contract), Curtis Samuel (taxi) and Jeremy McNichols (taxi)

Result: Ezekiel Elliott side with 65%

Why Twitter is right: There are a lot of moving parts here, and variables to be considered, but Twitter got this one right. Zeke is our dynasty unicorn, even if he has made poor decisions off the field. You have a great RB, in one of the best situations we’ve seen, and he’s only 22. While he’s set to miss some time in 2017, his dynasty value should remain unchanged. He’s a top five asset, and should be treated as such.

The other side of the deal holds a WR2, and a few dart throws. While it’s important to note that none of these players will require using contract years until they’re promoted from the taxi squad, they’re still just fliers and should be treated as such. I do like Curtis Samuel, and Chris Godwin has solid potential, I just don’t see a way to close the value gap from ARob to Zeke.

Allen Robinson has to deal with some combination of Blake Bortles and Chad Henne in 2017, and an unclear future following this season as he’ll be a free agent in 2018. What he does have going for him is that he’s only 24, and has produced at a high level albeit almost entirely garbage time. Let’s hope for greener pastures in regards to Robinson, but I’m more than comfortable sticking with the elite asset in Ezekiel Elliott here. – Dan

Devil’s Tradevocate: Yes, I’m using Devils Tradevocate to defend a trade I made that the twitterverse disagreed with. Often times with suspensions and injuries, people wait for the market to overreact and capitalize on the overreaction. With the Ezekiel Elliott suspension, I have seen a lack of reaction, is he cheaper on the trade market than he was a month ago? Maybe a little, but he’s still being value as a top five-eight asset as evidenced in this trade.

When trading a top running back asset like Elliott, I’m always looking to acquire a young wide receiver and assets on top, and that’s what Russell Clay and I did as co-owners here. I got a 24 year old Allen Robinson with three rookies I like long term in Samuel, Godwin and McNichols. If any of the three rookies hit their ceiling and Robinson continues to be a top 15 wide receiver for the foreseeable future, this will be a big win for our team, even if this is Elliott’s last off the field incident. – Nathan

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