The Player or the Pick? Off-Season ADP Risers

Ryan McDowell

With the off-season nearing its end and most rookies drafts now a thing of the past, I began to once again poll my Twitter followers on the value of a player compared to a future draft pick. In this case, I chose three players who have seen their dynasty ADP spike over the off-season. I presumed their trade value would somewhat mirror that jump. Here’s what I learned.

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At the peak of his dynasty value in the early off-season of 2016, Steelers electric young wideout Martavis Bryant was suspended for a full season, subsequently missing the 2016 season and seeing his dynasty value plummet. After hitting a dynasty ADP of 21 in March of 2016, Bryant’s downfall began and he eventually landed at a low ADP of 149 in June of that same year. Many, myself included, were quick to give up on Bryant, fearing he may have played his last snap in the league due to his substance abuse issues.

While little news leaked out of Bryant’s progression in the following months, his value held steady in the mid-round range of our DLF mock drafts. Maybe your leagues are different, but I saw very few, if any, Bryant trades once the season kicked off. It was a case of out of sight, out of mind. For those who were aggressive in pursuing Bryant via trade, well done. You can now reap the benefits of that foresight.

In late April, it was announced that the NFL had conditionally reinstated Bryant to the league. Most dynasty owners chose to overlook the “conditional” portion of that report and were therefore surprised when training camp began and Bryant was on the sidelines. While all of the reports rolling in were quite positive, Bryant was still not eligible to even practice with his team. Finally, less than two weeks ago, Bryant received his full clearance for pre-season activities. This means he can practice and play in the remaining pre-season games, though he is still not fully cleared for regular season action.

Bryant’s DLF dynasty ADP has risen every month since September of 2016, jumping a full 100 spots from 140 to 40 as of this month. With that in mind, I chose to pit Bryant against a high 2018 rookie pick, which essentially means a top four selection in the already strong looking upcoming class. From the start, this poll was not close with the pick finishing with a dominating 77% of the large number of votes. I also received many responses to this poll suggesting the question was not close and showing me the typical dynasty player is not ready to trust Bryant against a potential high-end dynasty asset like Derrius Guice or Saquon Barkley. The good news is there still appears to be a buying window for Bryant, but you’ll still have to pay up. It might not cost your projected top four draft pick, but expect to spend a later first-round choice if you want the Steeler wideout on your dynasty roster.

In 2016, Browns starter Isaiah Crowell enjoyed the best season of his three-year career, finishing as the RB14, averaging over 12 fantasy points per game. In analyzing Crowell’s season, many have pointed to the back half of his season, when he began to see more work in the passing game at the expense of teammate Duke Johnson.

With this career-year came a desire for a new long-term contract. After the team placed a second-round tender on their young back, other teams came calling and trade rumors swirled. There were also multiple reports the team could draft a rookie back from the talented class. Ultimately, the Browns and Crowell agreed to a one-year contract and the Browns didn’t use a significant pick on a back.

This series of events sent Crowell’s ADP soaring and he’s now climbed from a December data point of 107 to a current ADP of 50, with a high of 46 just last month. Being valued as the RB18 based on August ADP, I match Crowell with a mid-first round pick (1.05-1.08) and again, this wasn’t close.

Crowell garnered just 38% of the over 1,100 votes, showing the respondents overwhelmingly prefer the future top 12 pick. Considering the margin of the poll, it is also safe to assume the Crowell would not even be worthy of a later first-round pick. With the second tier of 2018 rookies fairly muddied at this point, this choice is clearly more about the lack of trust in Crowell rather than a look ahead at potential targets with the draft picks.

The top off-season riser (and it’s not even close) is New England running back Mike Gillislee. Although he finished 2016 as the RB40 in a limited role as LeSean McCoy’s backup, Gillislee seemed to be completely off the radar for most dynasty owners. In February’s DLF ADP, Gillislee wasn’t even selected, leaving him with a default ADP of 241. In April, the Patriots began to show interest in Gillislee, a restricted free agent and they eventually signed him to an offer sheet. Surprisingly, the Bills chose not to match the offer, meaning Gillislee was a Patriot. He was quickly dubbed as the likely starter and his value quickly climbed. His DLF ADP rose 65 spots from April to May and then another 40 spots by June. Our latest data point has Gillislee with a new high mark at 76, meaning he has now risen 165 spots, or nearly 14 rounds, since February.

Gillislee looks like a sure bet to increase his numbers all around from his time in Buffalo, but the Patriots backfield is quite crowded and Gillislee has been battling a hamstring injury, missing several valuable practices. Along with bringing in Gillislee, the Pats also signed former Bengal Rex Burkhead and re-signed Super Bowl star James White and Dion Lewis is also still in the picture.

The Gillislee ADP reached a pinnacle this month so I thought a late first-round pick would be a fair match up with the back, but once again, the results were far off. Over three-fourths of the participants sided with the late pick, falling in the 1.09-1.12 range. Again, the players likely to be chosen with those picks are an educated guess, at best. This means the typical dynasty owner simply isn’t willing to invest a top 12 pick on the Pats runner and given the competition and Bill Belichick’s history of running back usage, I can’t blame them.

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ryan mcdowell