Do you ever find yourself disassociating yourself from a certain ‘type’ of player? Or a certain ‘style’? Perhaps you go the opposite way, and you are #TeamBigWR or love your pass-catching running backs, and those players always ends up on your squads. Everyone constructs their rosters differently, and most like to “get their guys”.
Looking purely at his numbers, Christian Kirk fits the mould of players who I tend to avoid in fantasy football. I don’t think I have Jarvis Landry as high as the consensus, and I really thought he’d be a lot better NFL player than fantasy player. I once told a friend during his first draft in a redraft league in 2013 that Julian Edelman was a “bit-part” player, before he went on to a 105-1056-6 season and became the star that he’s been. I took the plunge on Kirk in a devy draft last year, and have been following him closely since.
It’s probably the non-PPR memories of mine that have contributed to avoiding “volume guys”. I never owned Wes Welker throughout his career, because he simply didn’t hold the same value in that format. When a player like that comes along – a player we know will score his points through volume and short-distance receptions – I hesitate. Where is the upside? Can they win on the deep balls? On statistics alone, I thought Christian Kirk might be another one of those ‘types’.
However, the most important lesson learned over the years is that every player is different. Every single one. Today, I’ll examine Kirk. Who is he? Where did he come from? What can we expect in the future?
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Kirk’s Background
Kirk was a highly-regarded prospect coming out of high school, and that’s no surprise looking at his numbers. As a senior, his team went 14-0, he had 1,692 rushing yards and 25 touchdowns along with 61 catches, 1,187 receiving yards and 17 touchdowns through the air.
In his time at Saguaro High School, he conjured up 6,617 total yards and a state-record 103 touchdowns. That’s a whole lot of production. Not not only did he line up as a running back and receiver (and punt returner), he also spent some time at cornerback too.
Christian Kirk played a little cornerback in high school. Even more chance to show off those PR skills. pic.twitter.com/7ZsgRzqYZj
— James Simpson (@JS_Football) August 14, 2017
You can find great high school highlight tapes for a ton of players, but this one is really fun.
Texas A&M – A Freshman Season Breakout
A five star recruit according to Scout and Rivals (four star on 247Sports and ESPN), Kirk was one of the top players in the 2015 class and decided on Texas A&M. It didn’t take him long to get started, as the first time he set foot on the field against Arizona State (coincidentally one of the universities he considered joining) he caught six balls for 106 yards and a touchdown, and topped off a stunning debut with a 79-yard punt return.
He continued contributing all year long, and finished with 80 catches, 1,009 yards (12.6 per) and seven touchdowns through the air, and 14 punt returns for 341 yards (24.4 per) and two scores. He was involved a little with the running game, gaining 54 yards on 11 attempts, but there was nothing groundbreaking. All in all, he set a high bar, and expectations were high heading into year two.
A Samey Sophomore Season
In his second season, he followed up 91 touches from scrimmage for 1,063 yards and seven touchdowns with… 91 touches from scrimmage again, this time for 963 yards and nine touchdowns. As a returner, he again dipped a little in yards but improved in touchdowns (three compared to two as a freshman). However, we have to consider the few opportunities he’s had in order to realise how special he is as a returner – five return TDs on only 27 returns (almost a score every five returns) is simply astonishing. There’s no doubt this will make him valuable at the next level.
Although he continued to rack up the receptions in his second year (his 83 catches in 2016 led the SEC after coming fourth in 2016), he didn’t “blow up” as many might have hoped. That said, consistency isn’t easy and he showed he wasn’t a one-hit wonder. He was also named to the All-SEC first team, so he played extremely well despite not appearing to show a huge improvement from year one.
Here’s a snapshot of his receiving production over his first two years:
And a look at his work as a returner:
Statistics from Sports-Reference.com.
What does the Film Say?
The numbers are great. They aren’t at an elite level if we are looking for a “fantasy WR1”, but we can work with them. What’s more important is identifying what skills he has, and if they translate to the next level. For that, we need to hit Draft Breakdown and the highlight tapes. Unfortunately there are only two videos there, but here’s what I noted:
- Unsurprisingly looking at his low yards per reception numbers, Kirk is involved in a lot of screens, sweeps, and short-yardage plays designed to get the ball in his hands – he’s had at least five catches in 20 of his 26 games in college football.
- He lines up in the slot often.
- His route running looks technically great. Stutter steps, hesitations, curls and fades are run precisely.
- Even though he’s a little on the lighter side (listed at 5-11, 200), he is able to fight for the ball, and is a very tough and willing blocker.
He passed the initial eye test. Also clearly, to be a dominant punt returner one is required to have a certain level of acceleration, side-to-side agility and the vision and awareness to see and avoid oncoming defenders and use one’s blockers. That’s clear looking at any of Kirk’s highlight videos.
Earlier this off-season, Kirk came in at number two in the NFL’s “Most Versatile Skill Position Players”. He offers more than just an outside receiver, and the article pointed out that Kirk has “averaged 23.1 yards per punt return for his career, which leads all active FBS players”. Not only can he return punts, he’s amazing at it. He’s led NCAA football in yards per punt return in both of his years in Texas (24.4 as a freshman, 21.7 as a sophomore). He’s an athlete, and it’s pretty awesome to watch.
Comparisons and Moving Forward
Stylistically, he actually reminds me a little of Giovani Bernard with the ball in his hands, but that doesn’t help as an overall comparison. Realistically, he blew me away with athleticism and speed, so the low yards-per-reception numbers appear to be largely because of scheme more than an inability to play on the outside. However, we’ve seen Tyler Boyd and Tavon Austin as examples of players who simply had to be force-fed, but couldn’t make it as pure number ones. While I don’t think Kirk will be that ‘WR1’ everyone craves, he has a great chance to be a productive slot receiver at the next level who could have some huge plays dotted into a long career.
In Ryan McDowell’s round up of NFL mock drafts earlier this summer, Kirk appeared early and often in a bunch of them. He’s a first round pick in devy drafts, and if he goes in the first or second round of the 2018 NFL draft, there’s no doubt he’ll be a first-rounder in rookie drafts. In fact, Ryan even speculated, based on these mocks, that Kirk could be drafted similarly to John Ross among dynasty owners if he ends up in the top half of the NFL draft.
Christian Kirk was a highly-regarded recruit. He’s been a consistent producer in the SEC, and coaches rave about his work ethic and leadership. He’s put together some great film and has the athleticism to show out at the combine, so I have every bit of confidence he’ll get a shot in this league. One more year of action will give us more insight into his fantasy football capability, but for now he’s a strong devy asset and worth having on your rosters.
The pro potential is yet to truly determined, but at the very least, I believe we’ll get some of this action on Sundays.
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As well as editing for DLF, James writes for Sky Sports and can be found on Twitter at @JS_Football
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