NFL Draft Aftermath: IDP Winners and Losers from the AFC East
The Patriots have won this division 15 of the last 17 seasons. The last time anyone but New England won it, George W Bush was president. It is stunningly, crushingly predictable due to the huge success of Bill Belichick and Tom Brady.
Fortunately we now know that IDP success does not strongly correlate with a team’s win/loss record so it can still be a fertile IDP breeding ground. Today I’ll cover who has risen or fallen following this off-season since the NFL draft.
New York Jets
Winners
Darron Lee, LB
Lee was fairly underwhelming in NFL terms as a rookie in 2016 but has clearly been given the reigns to the defense. He’s calling plays and according to the coaching staff is the unit’s main man. This means he’ll be on the field as much as possible and hopefully he can turn his unquestioned speed into some production on the stats sheet.
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Leonard Williams, DE
Since he was drafted Williams has been in some form of job-share. He played 807 defensive snaps as a rookie and 896 in 2016. He now appears to have a stranglehold on being the alpha-dog on the line for the Jets, which hopefully will mean he can rise to the challenge and become the dominant player he’s clearly capable of being.
Losers
Wilkerson is only a season removed from receiving a $86m contract from the Jets, but since then he’s had revelations of missing meetings and other bad behaviour, not to mention a hideous PFF grade for 2016 as well as his lowest season in terms of sacks.
Hopefully he’s got his head right and is back where he needs to be but his outlook is a lot less bright than it was this time last year.
If you thought Wilkerson had a bad 2016, Rankins was appalling. He managed just 1.5 sacks from 761 defensive snaps, which is horrific, and his attitude and off-field record is even worse. It’s amazing how often we forget he was arrested whilst speeding in a sports car filled with drugs and guns and a 12-year-old child. It’s so bad that even though it’s an open secret they’d love to trade him away, no one seems to be at all interested. Even worse on the Jets’ depth chart he’s listed as a LB so his IDP value might even drop.
Buffalo Bills
Winners
Reggie Ragland, LB
An awful lot of rookies have missed their first seasons due to injury recently, but with Ragland we really lost our love for him quickly. He has every chance to seize the top job this year. The stat crew in Buffalo is a lovely boon and I like Ragland to belatedly take to the NFL pretty well.
Gerald Hodges, LB
Sean McDermott is the new coach in Buffalo after Rex ran his course. McDermott has had great success with his LBs down in Carolina and it seems Hodges has taken to the scheme beautifully. I like Reggie Ragland but he’s not going to be the sort of player who can cover the whole field. I think Hodges can be much more mobile which is great news for IDP production.
Shaq Lawson, DE
I love Lawson as a breakout contender this year. He was never fully fit as a rookie and the scheme didn’t suit him. Add Rex’s overrated reputation, and it just didn’t really happen. But this year is different. I expect him to be more of a designated pass rusher than Jerry Hughes and to reap the rewards as a result. If anyone has the chance to reach double-digit sacks in Buffalo this season I think it’s Lawson.
Marcell Dareus, DT
Dareus is another player who’s fully fit after some time being hurt. At his best he’s clearly an unstoppable player and although he tends to line up more as a 0/1 technique than a 3 technique he’s so good he can still generate pressure consistently. He could easily lurch back to being an elite tackle under McDermott.
Losers
Last year was a fairytale as Alexander turned a journeyman career into one sparkling season of production. But it’s over. In the new scheme he’s simply left as the man without a position. He’ll likely play Sam linebacker and just not put up the numbers to make him a good IDP.
Preston Brown, LB
Brown was brilliant last year but again the scheme kills him. With Ragland back fully fit and Hodges brought in to compete for a job I think Brown will be the odd man out.
Miami Dolphins
Winners
Kiko Alonso, LB
Even after signing an ageing LB on a guaranteed contract, we all kind of expected the Dolphins to draft a player who could compete for Kiko’s snaps. They did, but even before Raekwon McMillan got hurt Kiko was locked in to play a three-down role in 2017. Injury aside he’s a dead cert to stay on the field whenever fit.
Cam Wake, DE
One more year! One more year! Charles Harris certainly has talent but at the moment he’s a fairly one dimensional player who I expect to have a similar career arc to Noah Spence or Shaq Lawson. Some flashes of pass-rush potential but a real learning curve in terms of being able to hold up against the run. Meanwhile Wake will continue to make up for his late start as a real difference-maker at end.
New England Patriots
Winners
Kony Ealy, DE
There was a report last week he’s fighting for his roster spot, but I’m not really taking that seriously. Ealy has the capacity to have a fantastic season. We all saw him in the Super Bowl a couple of years ago. If any coaching team can get that production out of him on a consistent basis, it’s Matt Patricia under Bill Belichick. If that happens, the rest of the league needs to watch out.
Losers
Elandon Roberts, LB
I love him. He was such a fun player and he showed simply astounding ability to make plays in the running game. But he doesn’t have the look of a three down player and when they traded for David Harris the Patriots showed they agree. Roberts can be a really good player in a specialist role but he’s just not going to be on the field enough to be a reliable IDP asset.
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