Devy Profile: Derrius Guice, RB LSU
There are multiple stud running back prospects providing plenty of depth in next year’s draft class, providing tons of rock solid options to choose from in next year’s rookie drafts, but there will only be a few blue chippers that will be at your disposal.
In recent years the phrase “generational talent” has been thrown around to describe multiple different prospects including, Todd Gurley, Ezekiel Elliott and even Leonard Fournette. If we are going to continue throwing the “generational talent” phrase around then we might as well rip a fast ball right at Derrius Guice, because he’s currently one of the top running back prospects in the nation. Without a shadow of a doubt, he is ranked within the top two in most analyst’s running back ranks for next year’s draft. Guice is destined to a be a first-round pick as long as he doesn’t face a devastating injury or a poor performance in the next nine months.
As a Recruit
Guice was a four-star recruit from Catholic High School, is located in Baton Rouge, Louisiana. There, he rushed for 1,341 yards and 21 touchdowns while gaining 617 receiving yards and eight touchdowns during his senior season. After reeling in two passes for 153 yards and two touchdowns, Guice earned MVP honors in the 2015 U.S. Army All-American Bowl. His highly productive high school career translated to multiple offer letters from Alabama, Louisiana Tech, Louisiana-Lafayette, Southern Mississippi, Texas and Tulane before eventually signing with LSU.
Freshman Season
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Guice started his collegiate career as a true freshman, rushing for 436 yards and three touchdowns while playing behind standout Leonard Fournette. He averaged an immaculate 8.5 yards per carry on 51 rush attempts. Not only was he a very effective runner, but he was very stellar at returning kicks with 472 return yards while averaging 23.6 yards per kick return. His best game came during week four when he rushed for 161 yards and one touchdown against South Carolina. Even in a limited role, he was productive enough to be awarded SEC All-Freshman Team honors.
Sophomore Season
The ball kept rolling for Guice into his sophomore year as he finished the season as the team’s leading rusher with 1,387 rushing yards and 15 touchdowns while surpassing the 100-yard mark six times. He was a tremendous asset to the team, owning a 29.41 percent market share of the team’s offensive production. His best game was against Texas A&M when he rushed for 285 yards and four touchdowns, setting a school record for rushing yards in a single game. Three times he was awarded SEC Offensive Player of the Week (vs. Missouri, at Arkansas, at Texas, A&M) and his performance against Texas A&M netted him the Walter Camp National Player of the Week honors. As a standout athlete, he was able to garner 2016 First Team All-SEC and 2016 First Team All-America honors.
Athleticism
During the summer of 2014, at an LSU football camp, Guice clocked in with a 4.35 40-yard dash. He’s a workout warrior, recording a 650-pound squat, 374-pound power clean and a 450-pound bench press. His ability to put in work in the weight room proves that he’s serious about his development and is willing to go the extra mile to make sure his body can operate at its most optimal performance at all times.
Running Style
I’ve scouted a lot of running backs over the years and he is one of the most complete backs I’ve ever laid eyes on. There’s something truly esoteric in the way that he runs the football. He has all the requisite skill sets; balance, speed, power and the ability to swiftly change gears. His burst getting to and through the hole is second to none. His ability to generate a massive amount of force at the point of contact, allows him to easily break tackles in the second level of the defense. Arm tackling him is almost an impossible feat, but there are still defenders who will attempt to tackle him while being out of position, only to get blown up or shook out of their shoes to become the next highlight on his impressive film reel.
There are not many running backs in the NFL, let alone in college football, who can maintain balance after shaking off a defender, then immediately regaining speed to outrun the rest of the defense. He has the vision of an NFL veteran as he can properly read the defense with ease before making his initial move toward the line of scrimmage. Even though he is listed as 2012 pounds, he still has the speed to be a threat to score from anywhere on the field while also finishing his runs with the power of a 225-pound running back.
The chart above is derived from a nine-game sample, equating to a total of 166 carries.
LSU likes to pound Guice between the tackles. A large portion of his inside runs are stretched to the inside pocket of the offensive tackle, because the team likes to seal the defense end and the defensive tackle to create a large rushing lane for Guice to run through. The team will run this blocking scheme through almost all their personnel packages.
He will only bounce runs to the outside if it’s deemed necessary and his speed makes him very dangerous once he gets the corner and hits the open space along the outside of the defense. With that being said, he’s capable of hitting the edge on sweeps, tosses and stretch plays. The main reason why most of his runs were directed up the gut of the defense, is due to LSU’s mentality of wanting to control the line of scrimmage with the power-run game.
The statistics in the chart above reflect how many times he lined up in the listed formations. The data is derived from a nine-game sample.
Guice’s touches are almost evenly distributed between single back and I-Formation (two back) sets which is indicative to LSU nature to institute the power the run game. LSU’s offense ranked 116th in the nation with 298 pass attempts, which is the main reason why he didn’t receive many opportunities to operate out of shotgun. This isn’t a big deal, because he’s a very a talented runner and his running style allows him to play out of any formation or personnel grouping.
The statistics in the chart above display his success rate (plays of four yards or more) in the listed formations. The percentages in the chart are derived from a nine-game sample with a total of 87 carries with four yards or more.
Again, LSU’s power-run scheme dictates how Guice is utilized and where he will find success. It’s not a surprise that he operates well out of single back and two back sets, because of the offensive line’s ability to create running lanes through the middle of the defense. One key note to mention is that 17.57 percent of his 74 rushing attempts out of single back formation led to 15 yards or more. Not having a lead blocker in front of him directing the location of the play allows him to be more creative to where he wants to run the football, providing more opportunities to bust out long gains. His elusiveness makes him very dangerous if the offensive line does their job by creating multiple running lanes, because from there, he can pick his spot and cut into the lane where there’s less traffic to run against.
Passing Game
He has experienced a lack of work in the passing game, catching just 14 passes during the first two seasons of his career. Last year he was targeted 15 times, catching 60 percent of those targets while owning a 5.3 percent target share of the passing offense. He’s efficient at catching the ball out of the backfield and is more than capable of being reliable receiving option for the team. Guice isn’t going to receive a large volume of targets because he plays on a run-first team that is usually ranked in the latter-half of the nation in pass attempts.
Guice is very physical and loves to mix it up in pass protection with blitzing linemen that are much larger than him. He’s not afraid to use his body to throw a chip block on a defender and is usually in good position to establish his block. As a consistent blocker who rarely ever misses a blocking assignment, Guice can be considered one of the best pass blockers at his position in the nation.
Where Does He Rank in Other Draft Classes?
He has the talent to be the 1.01 pick in most rookie drafts, depending on the year and what type of talent is available. Considering that he hasn’t played his junior season yet, Guice has the talent to be the top running back off the board in almost every given year. He doesn’t have a full body of work to compare to most prospects, but his talent level alone would’ve put him in the discussion for the 1.01 in this year’s rookie draft. There would’ve been a big debate between Guice, Fournette, Christian McCaffrey and Joe Mixon to see who was the best back in the draft class.
He’s the only running back who would’ve challenged Ezekiel Elliott for the top running back spot in the 2016 draft class. A player with Guice’s profile will always be a contender for the 1.01 spot in rookie drafts in any given year.
Conclusion
Guice is one of the most valuable assets in devy leagues and is one of the best running backs in the entire nation. When he enters the league, he should be automatically ranked within the top ten among all running backs in dynasty. The sky is the limit for him, because if he lands with the right team through the draft, then he could easily become one of the top running backs in the league.
Only a major injury during his junior season can prevent him from being a first-round pick in next year’s draft. He’s an “Adrian Peterson” type of talent and even though his stock in devy leagues is about as high as it can get, he can still increase his value if he finishes as one of the top backs in the nation next year.
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