Effortlessly Finding the Best Defensive Tackles in Fantasy for 2017

Tom Kislingbury Posted On August 4, 2017

Hi everyone. You’re no doubt very aware that through the summer I’ve been putting out team-by-team previews of how I think IDPs will score in 2017. Seeing as you were all so receptive to them, I wanted to summarise the latest versions of those projections by position. This is the top three tiers of tackles in my system sorted by projected points so you can instantly see who to go after.

As always there are some factors to bear in mind:

This is enormously dependent on league scoring. I’ve ranked everyone based on NPLB scoring here. All lists are ordered by total points.
This is based on a 12-team league with moderate-sized rosters (40-50). If your league varies wildly then this should be accounted for.
These rankings are for 2017 only. Obviously player age, contract situation and many other factors affect dynasty value.
I’m writing this at the very start of camp season. Things will change. Players will get injured and break out a lot. So this is a line in the sand but you should always stay up to date with new developments.
The numbers included are generated by my model which is primarily built on past production under the defensive coaching scheme. In a couple of places this generates results which seem odd. I’ll explain these as we go.
All players are ranked but there’s plenty of deviation involved here. I’m confident in the tiers of players but there’s also going to be plenty of times that players over or under perform their ranks.

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Tier One: 1-12

dt1 12 2

These are the top 12 tackles in my model for 2017. I’m confident in ten of these the exceptions being Caleb Brantley and Maliek Collins. The model loves Brantley because it wants someone on the Browns to slot into Aaron Donald’s role. I like him too but he’s not going to be anywhere near that good as a rookie. Brantley is worth a gamble but only with a late pick.

I’d also say Ndamokung Suh is too low down on this list. In the last two years he’s been given a really high snap count and I expect that to continue.

Suh should join Fletcher Cox, Linval Joseph and Kawann Short as the real class of tackles this year. In DT-premium leagues those players are really valuable and should be valued accordingly.

I love Snacks Harrison in an uncomfortable way, but again I think this is probably slightly high in most leagues where tackles are not weighted so highly. Be careful there.

Malcom Brown is a little high for me here. He certainly has the potential to be a top-tier player but he also fell out with Bill Belichick last season. That does not tend to end well for players regardless of talent. It’s a situation to monitor for now.

Tier Two: 13-24

dt 13 24 2

We’re talking tackles, so the players down here are really only useful in deeper leagues. Some of them have value, and some have a lot of hype but it’s unlikely they’ll win you many weeks on their own.

The obvious exception is Geno Atkins. He’s a fantastic player at his best and could easily step up a tier. In fact, with my objective hat on, I’d expect it.

Sheldon Rankins and DeForest Buckner are just behind him in this tier for me. Rankins has plenty to prove after an injury-riddled rookie year and although Buckner is a really hot NFL prospect, I want to see how he plays in a different role.

Some of you will likely rail against Marcell Dareus being this low but I think it’s realistic. In Sean McDermott’s scheme, Dareus will likely fit into Star Lotulelei’s role which is not that valuable in IDP terms. I think a prediction this high is actually fairly optimistic.

A dark horse is Tom Johnson in Minnesota. He opened cap as the starter and if he can hold on to that spot he will have sneaky upside next to Linval Joseph.

Tier Three: 25-36

dt25 36 2

Gerald McCoy could easily outperform this projection. He’s clearly very talented and in a seemingly good situation. Having said that, if you look back at the actual production from his role, it’s not that high. He himself has reliably produced stats but how often has his coordinator Mike Smith produced penetrating interior players. When Smith took over for 2016, McCoy produced his worst sack season since 2012.

Not Ranked

Grady Jarrett is outside my top 36 DTs. Everyone remembers he had three sacks in the Super Bowl, but they conveniently forget he only had three in the whole of the regular season. Look at which primarily interior players in the Seahawks/Jaguars/Falcons scheme have produced sacks – there are just not as many as people think. I like him as a player but I don’t think he’ll be a good IDP option in most leagues.

This gives you a snapshot of which tackles I expect to perform this year. I often say that in IDP in particular we need to get out of the habit of just thinking players are good or bad and actually stacking them up against all the other good or bad players. When you do that, it starts to become clear that not everyone can be productive. There are only a handful of elite tackles in IDP and not that many more that will be valuable for you. A lot of the recognisable names just don’t have much value most of the time.

As always in IDP, our task here at DLF is to help you with marginal gains. A few points here and there will add up to victories over the season when you’re playing against people who don’t put that effort in.

Good luck with the big men up front.

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Tom Kislingbury

Contributor at Dynasty League Football

Being from England Tom only discovered American Football in the late 90s. From there he's gone from casual defender to devoted obsessive and likes to delve into deep data primarily about defensive players. He spends his days trying to pretend the spreadsheets and graphs he makes about football are actually work for his day job. No-one is fooled.

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