Summer Sleeper: Kansas City Chiefs

Stephen Gill

We begin our annual 32-part Summer Sleeper series where DLF scribes identify a lightly-touted player on each NFL roster who may be worthy of your consideration. Our subjects all have varying levels of “sleeperness,” but each merits a bit of in-depth discussion here in the Premium Content section.

To help everybody along, we are going to be categorizing our sleepers under one of three headings:

  • Super Deep Sleepers – Players who aren’t roster-worthy in 12-team leagues, but are still worth keeping an eye on.
  • Deep Sleepers – An end of the roster player who is more often than not on the waiver wire in 12-team leagues.
  • Sleeper – A likely rostered player who makes for a good trade target. Their startup ADP puts them out of the top-175 or so.

Because we aren’t going give you the likes of mainstream sleepers, most of these players will undoubtedly fizzle. All we are asking is for you to keep an open mind and perhaps be willing to make room for one of these players on your bench. You never know when the next Willie Snead is going to spring up. Feel free to add your own thoughts about our choice for the designated sleeper, or nominate one of your own in the comments below.

[am4show have=’g1;’ guest_error=’sub_message’ user_error=’sub_message’ ]

Demarcus Robinson, WR

Category: Deep Sleeper

Despite a single year of NFL experience and a shallow depth chart ahead of him, Demarcus Robinson has passed the dynasty community by without attracting almost any attention.

Robinson entered the 2016 NFL Draft plagued with off-the-field issues. The former Florida Gator had been both arrested and suspended four times across his college career and benched twice in his final season. This troubling resume of problems managed to push him to the end of the fourth round in the draft after putting up moderate measures at Florida’s Pro Day.

On the field, Robinson brought lots of promise as a prospect. Compared to fellow receivers, he is much faster in pads than shorts (despite his poor 40 time, his quickness jumped to viewers in-game). At Florida he used this natural talent to attack cornerbacks; with those defenders off-balance, he could feast by blowing past them both with the ball in his hands and on routes. For better and worse, nearly all of his production came from his ability to blow by defenders: He showed that he had requisite athleticism to win battles with defensive backs, but receivers need to be more developed in order to succeed in the NFL.

It was clear that Robinson wasn’t a polished receiver in college. He managed just 1,333 receiving yards in two seasons serving a full role in the Florida passing game, relying on uber-productive displays to counteract his no-shows. As far as his traits were concerned, he showed flashes of being an excellent receiver, but those were mere flashes. He was much more adept and willing to juke pressing corners than to use proper technique. As a route runner, he was nowhere near consistent in both his effort and technique, choosing to rely on raw athleticism instead. The theme was clear: if his speed wasn’t going to get him open, he simply wouldn’t be getting open at all.

The promising side to this issue is that technique is much easier to improve than athleticism. With a strong work ethic and proper coaching, he still had the tools to become a nice receiver. The jury is obviously still out on whether that has happened or will happen. Still, Robinson fell into a pretty optimal situation in Kansas City as far as development goes: Andy Reid has proved in the past (most recent and notably, with Marcus Peters) that he can tap into the minds of players with character concerns. If Reid can motivate Robinson to stay away from off-the-field issues and work tirelessly on his craft as a receiver, there’s a promising future ahead.

To this point, it’s hard to tell what progress Robinson has made. He spent the entirety of his rookie season as a special teamer. This season will be his first true shot at playing a part in the Chiefs passing offense, and we’ll have to wait to see if he does so. He’s been the subject of plenty positive coach speak, which is promising at least in that he’s not being looked over (getting praise is better than not getting praise, after all). We’ll have to see him on the field to tell just how much he’s improved, but we will likely get that opportunity this time around, at least in the preseason.

Speaking of opportunities, this upcoming season is about as good of an opportunity as any for Robinson to step up. With Jeremy Maclin’s release, Kansas City’s receiving corps is suddenly quite shallow, meaning Robinson doesn’t have to move very far up the ranks in order to be productive. After failing to improve from 2015 to 2016, it seems that Albert Wilson has hit his ceiling already. Despite attaining the highest snap count of any Chiefs receiver last season, Chris Conley managed a pedestrian 44 receptions and 530 yards. He should be expected to progress next season, but if he doesn’t, Robinson will have to simply rise above a pair of tertiary receivers in order to be the number two receiver in the Chiefs offense. Even if Conley does take another step as a player, Robinson can overtake him down the line if the Chiefs choose to cut costs by promoting him instead of spending on a second contract for Conley or even Tyreek Hill.

One should still keep their expectations in check for Robinson this season, even in a breakout scenario. After Travis Kelce, the Chiefs offense is not fantasy-friendly for receivers. A top combo of Maclin, Hill, and Conley could barely put together 2,000 yards. Wilson only added 279 yards to this total. There is very little production and volume to go around, so a breakout for Robinson could look like a middling 400-yard campaign this season (especially when considering how much development his game required when he last played at receiver).

What’s more important this season is that Robinson gets his foot in the door of the Chiefs offense and shows real improvement as a player. The passing attack is poised to rise once Patrick Mahomes is ready to take the reins at quarterback. A secondary receiving role in such a system would prove much more productive than whatever Alex Smith can offer this upcoming season. As outlined before, Robinson will have an excellent opportunity to lock down such a role in 2017.

Furthermore, the former Gator can make the offense itself better if he progresses into being a legitimately good NFL receiver. With another dangerous weapon alongside Hill, the offense would be even more difficult to stop, leading to an added amount of volume for all. As highlighted before, Robinson has the tools to be such a weapon (though that shouldn’t be expected by any means).

Ultimately, Demarcus Robinson doesn’t offer a lot at the surface. He’s currently fifth on Kansas City’s receiving depth chart, behind the likes of Albert Wilson and De’Anthony Thomas. He didn’t get any playing time last year and Jehu Chesson was drafted in the fourth round this offseason, so his future doesn’t look promising, exactly. However, a closer look shows the possibility for the three essential elements for receiving success: talent, a role, and a strong situation. He’s shown flashes of the first, this season (and likely the next) provide the second, and Mahomes can offer the third down the line.

Robinson won’t provide much in 2017, but this is dynasty, and owners should also be looking for potential production in the future, too. For such a low price, Robinson sure offers a lot of it.

[/am4show]

stephen gill