#WROLD: Part One

Matt Price

Despite the fact running back production had a bit of a renaissance in 2016, most knowledgeable dynasty owners still prefer to build their teams around young wide receivers. Rightfully so. At this point, it’s no secret that elite wide receivers produce elite fantasy numbers in standard points per reception leagues much longer than running backs do.

Driving up the value further, most leagues start at least three of them and usually give the option to flex at least one or two more. Compare that to the “onesie” positions of quarterback and tight end. With quarterback production being utterly replaceable and tight ends being a complete crapshoot after the top five to six guys, it’s easy to see why the majority of owners like to build through young talent at the receiver position.

What I pose to you is this: What if we didn’t care about age at the receiver position? What if we used the simple fact that receivers who produce good to great fantasy numbers when they are younger will continue to produce a large percentage of those numbers after they have been deemed “old” by the community?

I am by no means saying you should only invest in aged veterans at the position, but instead of taking your shots on unproven youth early, take those same shots on unproven youth with less draft capital later. You still want some young upside on your roster at the receiver position, but if you can get similar production now from cheaper assets simply because they are older and less sexy why not do it?

I introduce to you the #WROLD strategy that instead of building through young receivers, builds through young running backs, complementing them with older receivers. This is certainly not an entirely new concept but it’s one that can get you into the mindset of zigging when everyone else is zagging. At the end of the season, you’ll be looking back at the competition you just #WROLD over all season long.

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Old Man’s Game

Everyone loves the young receivers because of how long they will have them on their roster. The catch is, in general receivers reach their production prime, their peak, whatever you want to call it, in their age 26-31 seasons. In fact, Mike Tagliere showed us that the largest percentage of top five scoring seasons by a wide receiver occurs in their age 29 season.

Receivers need to age, grow into their body, perfect their routes, and build chemistry with their quarterbacks before they can truly show what they are capable of as a player. This means that as exciting as it is to own those young 20s receivers, you will be waiting quite awhile for peak production from your investment. Smart dynasty owners operate in a two-three year window and when you invest heavily in those kinds of players you often set yourself to wait longer than two-three years to really turn that investment into truly profitable production.

There are exceptions to this rule of course. Players like Odell Beckham and Mike Evans have that rare combination of youth and sustained elite production at the position, which is why they are often the first two picks off the board in a standard PPR dynasty startup. Ask owners who invested heavily in players like Allen Robinson and DeAndre Hopkins in their 2016 startups, however, and they aren’t likely be as excited about their choices. Young receivers will always have insulated value but that doesn’t necessarily translate into production for your fantasy team, which is what we need to win championships.

The Young and The Fresh Legs

Running backs are the opposite. Thanks to Chase Stuart, we know that young running backs with fresh legs are generally more productive than old running backs. Running backs transitioning from college to pro often have an easier time than other positions contributing early and aren’t far behind those several years into their career.

We see it every season in the NFL. Young productive running backs are cast aside after their rookie contracts run out, only to sign somewhere else and take a backseat to a younger player on a new team. NFL teams use up their young running backs to the point where by the time they hit their age 26 season, all but the truly elite have lost a considerable amount of their lifetime fantasy value. If your goal is fantasy production in the immediate future it makes sense to draft running backs when they are young and in their prime and draft receivers when they are deemed old and either still in their prime or just on the other side of it.

This is a win now approach to playing a game that for me is all about winning championships, not just building a young and sexy roster. The key to executing any well thought out strategy is to pick the right players, successfully avoid the potential landmines that could derail your mission to win year one, and remain flexible enough to scoop value on players that have fallen too far. Let’s take a look at my targets for the #WROLD approach to roster construction in 2017 startup drafts.

The Big Three

Have an early pick in the first round? Go ahead and pull the trigger on Ezekiel Elliott (although he seems riskier by the day now doesn’t he?) or David Johnson. Zeke is trending toward not being a safe player, but as of right now I’m still drafting him in the early first despite the news about his altercation with a DJ. As of this writing, there have been no arrests made but why is Elliot always around trouble? Risk averse dynasty owners may want to restrict this list to only David Johnson, but I’ll be using the negative press to buy low on Elliott if I can find someone selling.

If you started playing dynasty in the last half-decade or so, it is going to feel really weird not taking a receiver early. It’s going to be tough to resist that urge to race to the podium with Beckham or Evans on your draft card, but the fact of the matter is wide receiver production in standard PPR leagues is easy to come by. Zeke and Johnson offer the rare combination of difference making production and security at a position where it’s difficult to find either one of those things.

You’ll notice I didn’t include Le’Veon Bell as an early target. It hurts to not have him included with those top two because he is one of my favorite players to watch on Sundays. Bell represents a new archetype running back that future players at the position will be compared to. He broke the mold. If you are less risk averse than I am in the first round of startups than by all means spend your pick on Bell. Personally, the combination of injury history, suspension risk, and unknown future with Pittsburgh is enough to give me a gas.

In part two of this series, we’ll look at other early round targets at running back and move on to the old fogies at receiver who will help you when a title this season.

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matt price