Weekly Twitter Observations
In this series of Twitter Observations, we will focus on some of the interesting tweets you may have missed. Twitter can be overwhelming with the amount of information that streams live, but it also proves to be one of the fastest and easiest ways to communicate. In 140 characters or less you can learn something about a player you may have never thought of from trends, stats or analysis. Let’s review some of the best tweets I’ve captured this week.
News
Normally I use this section to highlight significant news going on, but there really isn’t much at this time of year as we wait for training camps to open. So instead, I will share with you the DLF Newswire. This simple widget provides a clean stream of the latest news around the NFL.
Stats
Pat Thorman, Pro Football Focus
Jarvis Landry averaged 11.3 targets/game before Jay Ajayi had his first double-digit carry game in ’16, and 7.2 after. Saw 10.4/game in ’15.
— Pat Thorman (@Pat_Thorman) July 6, 2017
Jarvis Landry had an incredible first four weeks of 2016, there’s no denying that. Over four games he totaled 45 targets, 31 receptions for 377 yards, and one touchdown. This would be good for a 298.8-point 16-game pace. It’s okay; you can say it, wowza. Let’s compare that to the 12 games with Jay Ajayi getting an increase in carries.
In weeks 5 through 12, Landry averaged 13.1 fantasy points per game for a 16 game pace of 209.5. This would have been WR22 in 2016. These two splits provide a ceiling of WR4 and the floor of WR22. His MFL10 ADP is WR18, which would seemingly make him a value. If Landry is WR22 with Ajayi, this is only a minus 4 slide from his ADP. However, if there is some volatility or Ajayi misses any time, Landry can significantly outpace his ADP.
While I never have been a Landry fan, I think his floor is pretty safe. I definitely have doubts on any kind of top five ceiling, but some players are just okay being a WR2 on your rosters. Wide receivers going after Landry include Alshon Jeffery, Davante Adams, and Terrelle Pryor who all have their share of risk. In June DLF mocks, Landry is going 26 overall which would be his ‘at-value’ cost of a 24-year-old wide receiver with a limited ceiling and safe floor.
Ryan McDowell, Dynasty League Football
The current top 20 players based on DLF dynasty ADP & where they’ve ranked each month this year. pic.twitter.com/kYG3ooKaCc
— Ryan McDowell (@RyanMc23) July 2, 2017
I loved this tweet from Ryan McDowell on the top 20 dynasty players by ADP. Wide receiver Michael Thomas has steadily been moving up drafts this off-season, certainly helped by the Brandin Cooks trade.
Brian Malone
I avoid top RBs in dynasty, but you don’t get a much safer bet than Devonta Freeman in the 2nd round. pic.twitter.com/CWGX7MkY1y
— Brian Malone (@BrianMaloneFF) June 28, 2017
Not that I need much convincing on Devonta Freeman, but I loved this table by Brian Malone. Comparing other running backs with at least two top-12 seasons by age 24, Freeman stands to have a healthy career ahead of him.
Engineering DFS
Worked with @Fantasy_Matrix using #ReceptionPerception to find WRs with largest success rate delta between zone and man coverage pic.twitter.com/8JSTy50bZ8
— Engineering DFS (@DFS_mathlete) June 29, 2017
The anonymous Engineering DFS tweeter has been crushing it with some great information. Here he took Matt Harmon’s Reception Perception data to compare the largest discrepancies for a wide receiver between zone and man coverage. Check out his timeline for more great stats.
Can’t-Miss Articles
I wanted to add some can’t-miss articles to Twitter Observations. Make sure you check out these great tweets and articles.
Warren Sharp, Sharp Football Analysis
NEW Project: Player Rushing Performance vs Types of Boxes using data from @Marcus_Mosher
Page 1: Matchups -> https://t.co/nupv6apLub pic.twitter.com/qFvCuIgnTv— Warren Sharp (@SharpFootball) July 6, 2017
Mike Tagliere, Fantasy Pros
*NEW* 2016 Duds to 2017 Studs. Buy low on these guys, they are a good bet to bounce back: https://t.co/u4NzBuLCuC
— Mike Tagliere (@MikeTagliereNFL) July 3, 2017
Mike Tagliere wrote an excellent piece on players being drafted outside the top few rounds he views as potentially could be studs in 2017.
Joe Holka, 4for4
NEW #RushingExpectation — Methodology Introductionhttps://t.co/dyVFKs90yW
NEW #RushingExpectation — CLE backfieldhttps://t.co/rVvtNex04g pic.twitter.com/DYQFzvSkJe
— Joe Holka (@JoeHolka) June 29, 2017
Joe Holka of 4for4.com recently published his work on balancing metrics and film evaluation for running backs.
Evan Silva, Rotoworld
Halfway done with my #fantasyfootball Team Preview series. You can read all of them at this link: https://t.co/I6tVQpc6AI
— Evan Silva (@evansilva) July 7, 2017
Evan Silva is at it again crushing it with these team previews. These are must-reads going into the 2017 season.
Fantasy News
Ken Moody, Dynasty League Football
Check out the work of @TheRBScout on some cross-branded RB videos at DLF –> https://t.co/Q5NVJkUudk
— Ken Moody (@DLF_Kenm) June 28, 2017
Ken Moody, one of the DLF partners, announced that @TheRBScout and DLF will be partnering up to provide some excellent videos highlighting the running back position.
We have a nice stable of writers & are looking for more Nows the time to take the leap & write about #FantasyFootball We have a spot for you
— The FLAFFL House (@FLAFFLHouse) July 8, 2017
The FLAFFL crew is looking to add writers. If you’re interested in starting out in Fantasy Football writing, hit them up!
With so much information on Twitter, there are so many great minds contributing great discussion, articles, and bits of data, truly a hot bed of fantasy goodness. I will be doing my best to capture the highlights of the week and mining it out in one place for you.
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