2017 IDP Projections: Oakland Raiders

Tom Kislingbury

I believe that to properly analyze the 2017 IDPs you need to have an idea of how they’ll ALL perform so you can benchmark and compare them effectively.  So I built a model using past performance, efficiency, scheme information and coaching tendencies to predict what will happen in 2017.  I’ve applied that to my best estimates for how teams will use players this year which gives a projection and ranking for all IDPs. You can read more about what I did and how here. 

Notes

Of the 32 teams, I’m the least confident of these projections.  The scheme the Raiders were using at the end of last year was the furthest away from what the coaching staff has used in the past, so there’s a certain amount of non-translatable data involved.  It’s still work I’ll stand behind, but I’ll just be more likely to change my mind and agree with commenters.  Not that I’m trying to insinuate Raiders fans are a forthright bunch…

Either way, this should be full of hope and promise.  The Raiders were embarrassingly awful for most of a decade and a half and now they’re suddenly one of the teams most filled with fresh hope.  The Raiders fans I know are rightly excited.  Personally I’m not sure this season is going to be as rosy as many feel and ten wins should be seen as a great target.  But after only dreaming about going 8-8, that’s still a great place for them to be in.

Because of scheme changes, some of these player position designations may well end up being different.  This is my best guess from where we are now.

Stars

[am4show have=’g1;’ guest_error=’sub_message’ user_error=’sub_message’ ]

Sean Smith, CB

It was a big surprise for me to find Smith at #2 in my corner rankings.  I see him starting and playing against more physical receivers with David Amerson playing more technique/speed ones.  Conley should start his career in the slot.  As always with corners, it’s fuzzy trying to predict them but he’s a top asset for me at this stage.

Key stats: 951 snaps, 53 solo tackles, 10 assists, 13 passes defended, three interceptions.

Karl Joseph, S

For all his hype as a standout dynasty asset, Joseph wasn’t actually that effective last season.  I see that changing in 2017 with him establishing himself as a top safety option.  He’s my #5 at the position.  The big unknown of course is how the Raiders use Obi Melifonwu.  Some see him as the direct replacement for Reggie Nelson.  Some think he’ll play dime linebacker.  I tend to think that like many team the Raiders will use more big nickel and try to be a bit more flexible with their safeties.  Either way it’s another key situation to watch through camp and preseason.

Key stats: 1,000 snaps, 67 solo tackles, 27 assists, ten passes defended, four interceptions.

Starters

Cory James, LB

Again, inside linebacker is fairly wide open on the Raiders, as it was last year.  I’m hoping someone comes in and makes the job their own, but until that happens I’m unwilling to invest in the spot.  James is my current clubhouse leader but he could easily not make the team too.  He’s currently the #22 linebacker for me so it’s a fairly big deal.

Key stats: 963 snaps, 91 solo tackles, 37 assists, three sacks, five passes defended, one interception.

Useful

Justin Ellis, DT

One of the spots I’m not confident about is nose tackle.  These numbers are obviously a bit underwhelming and Ellis is my #51 tackle.  That might be a bit higher, but certainly he (or anyone else in the spot) is unlikely to be a star.  I liked Eddie Vanderdoes in the draft process too but again I can’t see him coming in as an impact IDP.

Key stats: 426 snaps, 16 solo tackles, 14 assists, two sacks, two passes defended.

Jihad Ward. DE

The coaching staff seemed to love Ward as a rookie last year.  I was unimpressed mainly, but I think he’s in the driving seat for a starting spot again.  He’s way down at my #53 end.

Key stats: 544 snaps, 24 solo tackles, 17 assists, one sack, one pass defended.

Mario Edwards Jr / Denico Autry, DE

Who’s going to start here?  I frankly don’t know.  They’re both up around the 270/280 lbs range so I think either could do a job there.  It’s a camp battle to keep an eye on for sure.  Whoever starts will be my #64 end and only usable in very favourable weeks.

Key stats: 395 snaps, 18 solo tackles, 11 assists, two sacks, two passes defended.

Khalil Mack, LB

The bane of IDP.  Mack was clearly an elite end, but as a linebacker is merely so-so.  He’s still a hugely valuable asset though and if you can get him at knock-off rates and have roster space you should be buying.  In NPLB scoring I have him as the #42 linebacker which isn’t terrible.  Also this is one of the spots most subject to being non-representative of his season.  I wouldn’t be shocked for a heartbeat of he beats ten sacks by a considerable margin.

Key stats: 845 snaps, 40 solo tackles, 17 assists, ten sacks, one pass defended.

Marquel Lee, LB

I’ve been caught up in the hype around Lee as a potential between-the-tackles banger.  Am I sure he’ll get the job? No.  Do I think a player limited in coverage is a great asset in the modern NFL? No.  But am I interested in any LB that could have significant snaps and is available for peanuts? Very much so.  He’s my #62 linebacker for now.

Key stats: 651 snaps, 47 solo tackles, 20 assists, five sacks, two passes defended, one interception.

Reggie Nelson, S

As always, please avoid free safeties in IDP if you can.  They’re too unpredictable in most leagues.  Having said that, Nelson is one of the better options at the position (assuming he can hold off Melifonwu).  Whoever wins that spot should be a in a great position given the nature of this team – there are going to be some shootouts.  Joseph is currently at my #34 ranking.

Key stats: 751 snaps, 57 solo tackles, 21 assists, seven passes defended, two interceptions.

Summary

What a weird distribution.  In my calculations the Raiders have two elite players, a solitary starter and a bunch of backups.  Very odd.  As I said earlier I’m less confident about this than I am most of the time so I’m sure I’ll be wrong in several ways here but as always at least you have a baseline of realistic outcomes to build around.

Those are my predictions as of right now.  Obviously things will change as we get a better idea of who will play and how going towards the season.  If you disagree with any assertions here feel free to leave a comment or contact me on Twitter (@TomDegenerate) and I’ll be happy to discuss.

Thanks for reading.

[/am4show]

tom kislingbury