I believe that to properly analyze the 2017 IDPs you need to have an idea of how they’ll ALL perform so you can benchmark and compare them effectively. So I built a model using past performance, efficiency, scheme information and coaching tendencies to predict what will happen in 2017. I’ve applied that to my best estimates for how teams will use players this year which gives a projection and ranking for all IDPs. You can read more about what I did and how here.
Notes
I feel so sorry for Jets fans. It can’t be any fun at all. The team is bad year-after-year with just enough hope to make it truly painful. The Bills know they’ll be horrible forever. But the poor Jets continually have false dawns like signing Brett Favre, or the first year under Rex Ryan, or the first year under Todd Bowles that make the fans think change is coming. Then they have seasons like this where they’re clearly tanking.
The coach is a dead man walking. The quarterback situation is a crime against humanity. The lead back is Matt Forte’s shuffling cadaver. Just this year, the team has cut David Harris. Darelle Revis, Nick Mangold, Brandon Marshall and Ryan Fitzpatrick. None of them were at the peak of their powers, but it’s still gut-wrenching for the fans.
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On an IDP note, this team is hard to love. There are some brilliant players but there’s a lot of dross too. I can’t imagine they’ll be much fun to watch. In stat crew terms, this is a team that’s low on solos and high on assists so we need to bear that in mind against your league settings. I find this quite interesting seeing as the Giants are on the other end of the scale. Clearly there are two different crews in New Jersey. Interesting, eh?
Lastly this team begs the question; do bad teams produce more IDP stars? I’ve got an article being planned about this but for now suffice to say I do not think that will necessarily be the case. So please don’t upgrade all Jets players because you think they’ll go 1-15.
Stars
Leonard Williams, DE
Williams is the shining light I mentioned earlier. He’s a fantastically disruptive player who can go toe-to-toe with anyone in the league, and is great fun to watch – and he’s still just 23 years old. I have him at #5 in defensive ends which is humbling. I wasn’t a huge fan of his coming out of college. Regardless of my past stupidity he’s going to be the Jets’ best player this season and likely a very good IDP.
Key stats: 870 snaps, 39 solo tackles, 23 assists, eight sacks, four passes defended.
Starters
Darron Lee, LB
I’m a bit conflicted here. I don’t think Lee is a very good player at all. I see an athlete rather than a football player. But he’s undeniably in a great spot. He’ll be on the field as much as he possibly can and thrust into a central role on a defense that will desperately need him – he almost can’t fail to put up good numbers. I have him at linebacker #34, and it would be higher if he was better. Remember this is basically the same role as Deonne Bucannon plays in Arizona.
Key stats: 952 snaps, 70 solo tackles, 29 assists, three sacks, three passes defended.
Useful
Steve McLendon, DT
Nose tackle in a 3-4 defense is not a good IDP position, especially on a team that is likely to feature an awful lot of sub packages. For me this is the ceiling for snaps for McLendon. He’s very unlikely to be a productive player for you. He’s my #34 tackle.
Key stats: 488 snaps, 23 solo tackles, 15 assists, two sacks.
I have zero clue why the Jets seem so keen to get rid of Richardson. At his best he’s still a fantastic player. It’s equally baffling that no other team has given up what would reputedly only be a mid-round pick. Maybe it has something to do with the fact he’s a crazy fool who was caught driving at ridiculous speeds in a car full of weed, guns and kids – and the fact that he allegedly misses meetings. Maybe that’s it.
Regardless, he’s up at #32 end for me. You’re best off holding him and hoping he gets himself together on a different team.
Key stats: 690 snaps, 29 solo tackles, 20 assists, three sacks, two passes defended.
He’s seemingly the forgotten man for the Jets. I have Wilkerson at #33 but that could easily be improved – especially if Richardson sees significantly less playing time.
Key stats: 680 snaps, 29 solo tackles, 22 assists, three sacks, one pass defended.
Demario Davis, LB
Yep. This is really it. Demario Davis is likely going into the season as a starting inside linebacker. I asked the DLF IDP Voxer chat about this and the consensus came back Davis would start over Bruce Carter. Not least because Davis is Kevin Minter-esque, which is of course what Bowles wants in his second linebacker. It’s not exactly a ringing endorsement. He’s only my #61 linebacker.
Key stats: 823 snaps, 52 solo tackles, 23 assists, four sacks, two passes defended.
Marcus Williams, CB
Yes, Williams is my top corner on this team at #61 in my model. I have Morris Claiborne as the top depth chart option for the team and as we’ve seen, number two corners generally produce better. It’s extremely possible the corners for this team are utterly horrific and clean up in tackles.
Key stats: 738 snaps, 42 solo tackles, six assists, nine passes defended, two interceptions.
Jamal Adams, S
Uh-oh. I can see the angry comments for this one already. Adams is my #36 safety for 2017. To explain: I really like Adams as an NFL prospect. I think he can hit hard as well as cover – and that’s the problem.
Todd Bowles ran the Cardinals scheme that made Tyrann Mathieu famous. They like to be flexible with their safeties rather than designate them clear strong and free. They’ll rotate coverage and seeing as he’s good at it Adams will spend a chunk of time running with tight ends and wide receivers.
I think he’s a similar talent to Patrick Chung, who is a fine player but not productive in IDP circles because blanketing TEs is not currently rewarded by MFL. I too find this disappointing but we have to live with it.
Key stats: 801 snaps, 56 solo tackles, 18 assists, one sack, seven passes defended, two interceptions.
Marcus Maye, S
On the plus side, the Jets scheme should make Maye a little more productive. He’s up at #39 for me on the back of some excellent expected coverage plays. 13 passes defended may be a bit optimistic but he’s very likely to be heavily targeted.
On that note back at the draft I wondered why they picked two safeties early – surely that’s a recipe for disaster? Now we’ve seen their plans to tank it seems they at least knew what would happen.
Key stats: 607 snaps, 48 solo tackles, ten assists, one sack, 13 passes defended, four interceptions.
Rontez Miles, S
The Jets are a big nickel team just like the Cardinals, and all three safeties should see decent time at least. Miles was fantastic at compiling assists last year and I think he could be an underrated asset. I don’t want to start him but he’s likely unowned in your league and he’s not horrific. He’s my #44 safety.
Key stats: 871 snaps, 50 solo tackles, 14 assists, one sack, six passes defended, three interception.
Summary
Okay – it wasn’t the rosiest write-up in the world – but the Jets have a star player at least. Plenty of teams don’t even have that. For anyone unfortunate enough to be a Jets fan, I strongly recommend using this season as an opportunity to watch Leonard Williams from start to finish. His excellence should at least take your mind off things.
Those are my predictions as of right now. Obviously things will change as we get a better idea of who will play and how going towards the season. If you disagree with any assertions here feel free to leave a comment or contact me on Twitter (@TomDegenerate) and I’ll be happy to discuss.
Thanks for reading.
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It’s puzzling that you have Williams as a star and Lee just a starter when your stats don’t seem to justify the differential.
