Defending Your Rankings: Wide Receivers

It’s time for the latest instalment in our Defend Your Rankings series. In this edition, we’ll focus on everyone’s favorite dynasty position (to a fault, I might argue): Wide Receiver. In this series, we let our rankers expound a bit more on why they have particular players ranked higher or lower than other rankers. Our two previous entries in this series focused on Quarterbacks and Running Backs. Let’s get to it.

DeSean Jackson, WR TBB – Composite Rank 50

Austan Kas – WR 32

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First and foremost, I almost always take the approach of trying to win now, so that impacts how I view veteran players as I probably see more value in them than most of my comrades. Jackson is a perfect example. As a speed-based, deep-threat wideout — a type which doesn’t usually age well — entering his age-31 season, Jackson can’t have too many more good years left in him.

But he’s had at least 1,000 yards and 56 catches in each of the last three years in which he’s played at least 11 games. I don’t mind his weekly volatility — he can win matchups for you with his big weeks — and his fit with the Bucs is a good one as Tampa Bay desperately needed a quality second wideout.

Bruce Matson – WR 65

First off, I’ve never been a big fan of DeSean Jackson, mainly due to his volatile fantasy production. His age is a major deterrent for me as he’s currently 30 years old and will turn 31 in December. Fantasy production for wide receivers tend to drop off around age 28 and older wide receivers like Jackson tend to hold very little value on trade market in dynasty leagues, making it even harder to want to invest in him. I consider him a declining asset that could potentially bottom out at any time and that is something I want no part of.

He recently signed with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers for a three year $33.5 million deal, but he could easily be cut as soon at 2018 and will account for zero dollars in dead cap monies in 2019, so his tenure with the Buccaneers could end within a year or two. The team drafted Chris Godwin in the third round of this year’s draft. He’s a very talented wide receiver who specializes at taking the top off the defense and catching the deep ball. If he plays well and earns the coaching staff’s trust then he could take over at the team’s deep threat, killing Jackson’s fantasy value.

Julian Edelman, WR NEP – Composite Rank 37

Matt Price – WR 28

I have always had an affinity for wide receivers who may not have the same ceiling as players more athletically gifted, but make up for it with their technical skills as a route runner. Guys like Keenan Allen, Jarvis Landry, and Julian Edelman are staples on my fantasy football rosters because they provide week to week consistency and give me the ability to grab more volatile assets because I know I can count on their points. They are the types of receivers that seem to have a mind meld with their quarterbacks; go to guys who are looked to when a play breaks down, which in the NFL is far more often than not. They are the security blankets of their offense.

Brandin Cooks really doesn’t scare me off Edelman and it actually provided a very nice buying opportunity this offseason for contending teams. Today he signed a two-year extension that to me says the team expects him to be a part of the offense for at least the next two seasons. For a contending team operating in a three-year window, that answers all the questions I had about taking Edelman at his ridiculously cheap price at WR41 in May’s ADP data. I feel confident he will be a top 30 wide receiver for the next couple of seasons.

Jaron Foster – WR 42

While Edelman is one of my favorite players, he’s not one I’d like to rely upon in dynasty. The 2016 season was only his second in an eight year career in which he played all 16 games, and along with an increasingly loaded depth chart at receiver I envision a decrease in workload and production. As he has averaged less than eleven yards per reception over the last four seasons and has never surpassed seven touchdowns in a single season, fewer opportunities lower his ceiling even further.

DaVante Adams, WR GBP – Composite Rank 19

Jeff Haverlack – WR 11

What’s not to like about Davante Adams?  Sure he’s a free agent in 2018 but you can expect the Packers to ensure he’ll be in Wisconsin a very long time.  At only 24 years of age and with good size, Adams makes a perfect complement to Jordy Nelson on the outside in the high-octane offense led by quarterback Aaron Rodgers.  Adams finished 2016 as the WR12 in PPR formats and the names above him include the aging Larry Fitzgerald, unsensational Michael Crabtree and the streaky Doug Baldwin.

He’s consistent, young and stands to benefit in the longer term as Nelson retires and Randall Cobb continues to fade into mediocrity.  I could make a strong case that this ranking for Adams is too low, but do prefer to see one more year of consistency before being so bold as to place him within my top ten.  Barring injury, I see no reason why Adams won’t eclipse 1,000 (he fell three yards short in 2016) yards for the first time in his career and score double-digit touchdowns once again.

Adam Tzikas – WR 24

Adams is an incredibly hard player to rank. His usage has been all over the charts, but it’s hard to deny his recent success. Still, I have a hard time giving him the nod over the players I ranked ahead of him. His value should level out in coming months, but while catching passes from Aaron Rodgers is always a good thing, I worry about him just being the guy left open when Jordy Nelson and Randall Cobb take a lot of the coverage and wonder whether he can do it when he’s more alone.  I think he will be an asset in the league and in fantasy but I slotted him between the top rookie WR’s almost as a tier break. I’m selling if I can.

Josh Doctson, WR WAS – Composite Rank 35

Jaron Foster – WR 27

Heading into the 2016 NFL Draft, Doctson was my second favorite wide receiver prospect after Corey Coleman. He flashed big-play ability in his limited opportunities prior to the Achilles injury that cut his rookie season short, and by all accounts is on track to suit up week one for the Redskins. To replace the departed Pierre Garcon and DeSean Jackson (not to mention the unknown health of concussion-prone Jordan Reed,) all the Redskins did in the offseason was sign Terrelle Pryor to a one-year deal. Doctson should see the field early and often in 2017, and could easily be the Redskins’ top receiving weapon at this time next year.

Ryan McDowell – WR 40

Redskins wide receiver Josh Doctson entered the league as an older than average rookie with a sketchy injury history. Another injury during his rookie camp set him behind veterans DeSean Jackson and Pierre Garcon and he never really recovered. He did suit up for the team’s opening two games, recording a pair of receptions, but would would miss the remainder of the season with an Achilles injury. Now, Jackson and Garcon are gone, but the team brought in Terrelle Pryor from the Browns. Also, Jamison Crowder has proven he can soak up targets in that offense. Factor in tight end Jordan Reed and it’s easy to see Doctson as the fourth option in this offense in 2017. Long-term, Pryor may only be with the Skins for one season and Reed has constant injury concerns himself, but there is also a question as to who will be throwing the ball to Doctson with Kirk Cousins potentially playing his final season in Washington.

That’s all for this entry. And I think we’ve seen once again that there are wildly varying opinions on players, even from staffers here at DLF who spend an awfully long time researching and thinking about those rankings. I hope that with this series you can get more familiar with the thoughts and processes of some of our rankers, as well as gain a greater understanding of the inherent difficulty in the job of ranking.

Tune in next time for our look at the final major position in this series, the sure-to-be polarizing Tight End.

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