Buy Martavis Bryant Before the Window Slams Shut

The window on Martavis Bryant hasn’t yet closed, but it will slam shut very, very soon. There’s still time to get the tail end of the discount pricing, and you should be actively pursuing buying him from your league’s owner without a second to waste.

The first thing we will dive into is his dynasty ADP journey. The logical starting point is December of 2014, the month after he exploded onto the scene with six touchdowns in his first four games (weeks seven-ten of 2014) after the Steelers selected him in the fourth round of the 2014 draft. At that point he checked in at 62 overall in ADP, but didn’t really have a ton of opportunity or production and finished his ten game rookie season with a 26-549-8 line on 48 targets.

Despite his rookie year ending without much fanfare, his freakish ability was glaring, and dynasty drafters had moved his startup ADP to 44th overall by February of 2015. That mid 40s rank held steady through the summer of 2015, then spiked to 32nd in October of 2015 as his return from a four game suspension was imminent – and that number continued to rise.

His 2015 stat line was 50-765-6 on 92 targets and it was apparent he was a special talent on the field and there was a star in the making as his late and off-season ADP would suggest. He was 28th in November 2015, and cracked the top 20 when he checked in at 19th overall in January 2016 which held steady through March of 2016 when his year-long ban came down.

It took just one month for his ADP to dip to 95th overall, and finally hit rock bottom at 147th in June 2016. He remained in a similar range until November 2016 where forward thinking began to creep in and he had a resurgence to the mid-80s. He then settled in the 70s for the first quarter of 2017 while reinstatement was being discussed, and then jumped to 60th overall in April and May 2017 ADP after his March reinstatement.

Bryant is currently sitting at 51st overall in the most recent ADP data from June 2017. This is the cost of where he currently sits, which is a far cry (and a bargain) from the top 20 price we were paying just 18 months ago, the most recent time he walked off an NFL field.

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His physical profile was already good, but is one that has amended itself during his suspension and is now fully the type we salivate over. I’m sure we all remember ESPN’s Matthew Berry sharing a Pittsburgh offensive coach’s comment to him from this year’s combine:

“You know who he could be? He could be Randy Moss. He’s got that kind of talent.”

More on this comparison in a bit, but I want to touch on Martavis’ recent commitment to maxing out his physical talent first.

His combine was already an impressive one, as he ran a 4.42 forty yard dash at 6’4” and 211 lbs. He played at or near that weight in 2014 and 2015 but his body transformation during his suspension year is what could turn him from very good physical specimen to a transcendent one. He has spent a vast amount of time in the weight room, packing on 17 pounds of lean muscle, increasing his weight to 228 lbs, and there’s even a video of him showing off his added strength and physique.

The obvious concern with this type of weight gain for any player, let alone a wide receiver, is a sacrifice of both quickness and speed for the added strength… but worry not. I’m going to leave a spoiler: here, you will see a 6’4” 228 pound human run a sub 4.3 second forty yard dash. There are no typos there.

To go back to the quote comparing him to Moss – Randy the G.O.A.T. ran the forty in 4.25 at 6’4” and 210 lbs. For Martavis to do the same or similar with an additional 18 pounds is, mildly put, generational.

There’s really no room to make an argument against his physical profile nor his athletic ability. So it is reasonable to ask, how well does that transfer to the football field? Simply put, very well.

As you can see above, through 21 career games, Martavis has posted a 76-1314-14 (140 targets) line, with an additional 8-49-1 on the ground. Only 17 times in the Super Bowl era has a receiver posted more fantasy points through 21 career games. Digging a bit deeper, courtesy of PFF’s Scott Barrett, these 21 games only featured eight “starts” and a total of 12 games where he played the majority of the snaps. The production on a per-snap basis that he’s posted to this point of his career is at the highest possible tier.

As you can see, through three playoff games over the course of two seasons, he averaged an absurd 6.3-81.3-0.7 line through the air (on ten targets per game) with an additional 1.3 carries per game for an even more absurd 30 yards. Logically speaking, playoff usage would seem to best indicate which players a coaching staff prefers, and Martavis’ usage there is plenty to quell any snap share concerns for me.

Okay, I know what you’re thinking now.

“TJ, I just read 1,000 words about this guy, but when are you addressing the elephant in the room? What about the suspension risk???”

Well, I’m glad you (I) asked. 

Even now that Martavis is reinstated, it’s difficult to say anything positive about him on social media without receiving negative feedback about the risk he carries on another suspension, and constant finger pointing to the likes of Josh Gordon and Justin Blackmon. This man is fully aware of his situation, and he is moving forward and following a different path than Gordon and Blackmon. In January, Sports Illustrated had a Q&A with Martavis himself, and I want to share and discuss a few excerpts.

The first references his aforementioned awareness of his specific situation. When asked what made this suspension different from the last and what he changed, he responded:

“I know I’m on my last chance. I’ve been watching what happened with Josh Gordon, Manziel, Justin Blackmon.

My way got me in trouble. I cut my circles down. I hadn’t really been paying attention to how many people were around me. It feels really quiet now. I love that.”

He’s owned what he did, he’s fully aware of the consequences of another mistake, and is pointing to previous examples of what could/would become of him if he doesn’t walk the straight and narrow path. He’s also remorseful. When asked who he felt he let down the most, he responded:

“My mom. She raised me by herself, working in a plant for almost 30 years. I owe everything to her. When I got suspended, I called my mom and my grandma and told each what happened. It really hit hard for my mom when it came out. Because people don’t just go at you, they go at your family too. Everything said on my page online was said on hers too. That was the hardest call but I’ve made that call before. It’s like, “I’ve got to call and tell her because I don’t want it to come out on TV.” It’s my mom. She told me, she was like, “Ah man, I can’t believe this happened.” She wanted me to learn from my mistakes. It got down to, she didn’t think I was ever going to stop smoking. It took to this point for her to believe me.”

Maybe I’m naïve, but between the words themselves and watching his interviews and workouts, I’m convinced he’s sincere, has changed his life, cut out the circles he needed to cut out and is now destined for and on a path to greatness.

I’ll leave one more excerpt on his workout habits, because their level of importance here can’t be understated.

“I used to just show up on Saturday and ball out. Show up on Sunday and ball. I never trained in the off-season. Maybe like once a month. My first year, I went to L.A. in the off-season and I was good during that first week. Then there wasn’t any more training.”

There’s training now, and the sky is the limit. Fifth round startup ADP is just stealing for what is within his grasp to become, as soon as September. I personally have him ranked at 21st overall in the DLF top 200. This means I value him on equal footing with or slightly ahead of every single rookie in the 2017 class. This doesn’t mean I advocate giving the rookie 1.01 or Corey Davis to get Martavis, but that’s only because you simply don’t have to. He can be had for cheaper in 99% of leagues and it’s a top notch ceiling player for the price of a fringe WR2/WR3. Whether you’ve got an established win-now team or a rebuilding project, the perceived risk is still keeping plenty of value here, and be sure to snatch it up post haste.

My personal dynasty portfolio consists of 14 leagues, 12 of which feature Martavis Bryant. I was sure to buy up the shares I was missing when his ADP was at the deepest valley a year ago, but I also made certain to get him in all startups and dispersals I participated in this off-season. Cases in point:

-$19 (!!!!) of a $400 startup budget in Kitchen Cinco

-4.11 startup pick in FFPC startup

-6.09 in industry league superflex startup (team partnered with Curtis Patrick)

-Third round pick in eight team dispersal in DLF staff league

-Traded away rookie 1.08 and Sterling Shepard for Martavis and DeMarco Murray (team partnered with Scott Barrett)

If you’re not buying, you either already own him or you’re not doing it right.

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