2017 IDP Projections: Indianapolis Colts

I believe that to properly analyze the 2017 IDPs you need to have an idea of how they’ll ALL perform so you can benchmark and compare them effectively.  So I built a model using past performance, efficiency, scheme information and coaching tendencies to predict what will happen in 2017.  I’ve applied that to my best estimates for how teams will use players this year which gives a projection and ranking for all IDPs. You can read more about what I did and how here. 

Notes

Oh the Colts and their defense.  How is it that every single person who’s ever played franchise mode on Madden knows how to build a roster effectively, but the Colts still think that they can spend all their cash on a quarterback and some receivers and just get by on scraps with the offensive line and defense?  Yet again, we go into a new season and all the questions about this team are whether the new defensive pieces can somehow fit together.

That’s not to say they didn’t have a solid recruitment season.  The Colts spent six draft picks on defensive players (including their first three) and signed five defensive free agents who could be significant contributors.  The pieces are there but I can’t escape the feeling they’re just throwing emptying jars into a pot and hoping it turns into delicious soup.

Stars

Johnathan Hankins, DT

[am4show have=’g1;’ guest_error=’sub_message’ user_error=’sub_message’ ]

Hankins was a fairly late signing in free agency when the Colts gave him three years and $14.5m guaranteed.  I love this move for both parties though.  He’s a run-stuffer first, and although not an elite talent he’s a good player who can two-gap effectively.  My model thinks he’s going to be extremely productive for his time on the field and become the #6 tackle in 2017.  Personally I think that’s a bit high, but he certainly has potential to be a good top-tier option.

Key stats: 653 snaps, 32 solo tackles, 23 assists, four sacks, four passes defended, one INT.

Starters

Sean Spence, LB

Spence is one of my utter favourite buys this summer.  Anyone who follows me on Twitter is probably sick of me banging on about him.  He’s the only real veteran presence the Colts have at linebacker, he’s very good in coverage (there is a clear correlation with coverage ability and tackles for linebackers), and the Colts gave him a good contract and then failed to address the position in the draft.  Everything points at him being on the field a lot.  If you can pick him up cheap go and do it.  He could easily be this season’s Zach Orr/Tahir Whitehead.  I have him all the way up at #14.

Key stats: 1,036 snaps, 81 solo tackles, 55 assists, three sacks, nine passes defended, two INTs.

Edwin Jackson, LB

He is the other starting linebacker for me.  He played sporadically in 2016 but solidified his grip on the spot late in the season and I expect that to continue into this year.  If I have any worry, it’s that between Jackson and Spence they do not really provide a banger in the run game, but this is the modern NFL.  Linebacker is a coverage position more and more.  Antonio Morrison can come on in obvious run situations.  Jackson is my #34 ‘backer and a solid depth piece.

Key stats: 883 snaps, 59 solo tackles, 38 assists, two sacks, six passes defended, two INTs.

Clayton Geathers, S

This is a bit disappointing for me.  I’d love to have him higher up because I love what he brings as a player.  The ceiling is clearly much higher than this but he has to stay healthy – and judging on his career so far that’s in no way a guarantee.  He’s still a fantastic dynasty asset and will be brilliant for some weeks, but over the course of a season he’s my #30 safety.

Key stats: 922 snaps, 50 solo tackles, 28 assists, one sack, nine passes defended, two INTs.

Useful

Henry Anderson, DT

This is maybe my biggest disappointment going into 2017.  I adored him as a prospect and a rookie, but clearly he had a nasty injury and then seemed a shadow of himself when he returned in 2016.  I’d love to say he’ll be back at 100% this season but in good conscience I just can’t.  I have him way down at #69 as too many things would have to fall into place for him to be a real asset going forward.

Key stats: 505 snaps, 16 solo tackles, 11 assists, three sacks, three passes defended.

Jabaal Sheard, LB

A lot of people seem to have forgotten Sheard is still a good player and got a $26.5m contract.  Even going back to his previous time playing outside linebacker, he was very productive and although he had a blip in midseason last year he came back to play well later in the year.

The Colts have proven generally disastrous at finding pass rushers in recent years, but I quite like Sheard.  He’s currently at #58 in my linebacker rankings.

Key stats: 811 snaps, 36 solo tackles, 24 assists, nine sacks, three passes defended.

Vontae Davis, CB

In my opinion, Davis is one of the more misunderstood corners in the NFL.  He was outstanding in 2014 and has had two or three very good years, but aside from that he’s nowhere near as good as people think he is.  He certainly wasn’t last year.  He’ll be targeted fairly heavily and be a decent option with some excellent weeks.  I think he’ll be the #29 corner.

Key stats: 870 snaps, 46 solo tackles, seven assists, one sack, 12 passes defended, two INTs.

Rashaan Melvin / Quincy Wilson, CB

I’ve lumped these two together because I think they’ll share a job.  Melvin should be the number two corner for the start of the season based on his strong play last season (he quietly played 652 snaps), with Wilson taking over when he’s fully fit.  That should be a very simple transition to manage on your fantasy team if you like Wilson.  I have the slot as being the #53 corner.

Key stats: 725 snaps, 40 solo tackles, nine assists, one sack, ten passes defended, one INT.

Malik Hooker, S

I have him as the #59 safety.  Yes – he is a very good talent.  No – I don’t think he’ll be worth using as an IDP.  Quite frankly the model predicting him 46 solo tackles seems high to me, but I can see it in Indy.  The problem is – 46 tackles is just not that exciting. Break it down week by week, and it’s two or three tackles and an assist each week, with a pass defense thrown in every three weeks.  That’s just not good.

If you extrapolate out what he needs to be IDP-relevant, it gets absurd.  A pure free safety like him just doesn’t have the ceiling.  It’s possible he leads the leagues with interceptions or a huge number of PDs, but it’s certainly not likely.  Let someone else be disappointed every week by overdrafting Hooker.

Key stats: 922 snaps, 46 solo tackles, 18 assists, five passes defended, one INT.

Summary

There are plenty of solid tackles here.  The Colts should again be in their fair share of shootouts, so tackles will be on offer.  It’s about seeing if one player can be dominant and hoover up the opportunities – which hasn’t happened in recent years for the Colts.  Spence is one of my sleeper favourites for the season, as is Hankins (in the right leagues), but overall I think we’ll see a lot of players not quite reach their lofty expectations.

Those are my predictions as of right now.  Obviously things will change as we get a better idea of who will play and how going towards the season.  If you disagree with any assertions here feel free to leave a comment or contact me on Twitter (@TomDegenerate) and I’ll be happy to discuss.

Thanks for reading.

[/am4show]