Rookie SWOT: Deshaun Watson

Name: Deshaun Watson

Born: September 14, 1995 (age 21)
Position: Quarterback
Pro Team: Houston Texans
College Team: Clemson
Draft Status: Round 1, 12th overall

MockDraftable Data

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Strengths

Clemson quarterback Deshaun Watson leads this year’s class in time to release. According to ESPN’s Sports Science studies, Watson’s release is as quick as Aaron Rodgers. This quick release should prove to translate to the speed of the NFL defenders, and the tight windows needed to take advantage. To go with his quick release, Watson has exhibited an incredible ability to create plays with his mobility outside the pocket while maintaining his vision downfield.

These traits have no doubt been at the core of how Watson was able to perform at the level he did again the top ranked competition in college football. He led the nation in attempts, completions, yards, and touchdowns versus ranked opponents. I also believe that as a multiple season starter at Clemson, it provided a good amount of development for him before he gets a taste of the NFL competition.

Weaknesses

Despite a good completion percentage, Watson often was bailed out on misplaced throws by his receivers. Unfortunately, when the errant throws weren’t caught, they tended to get intercepted. Watson threw an extraordinary number of interceptions for a player of his caliber with 17.

He has a tendency of not maintaining his mechanics on deep throws – in particular, he doesn’t climb the pocket and step into his throws. This technique by a quarterback is estimated to generate 50% of their power. I look forward to these adjustments being made by Texans head coach Bill O’Brien.

Opportunities

Watson enters a prime situation with one of the best offensive minds in the NFL with O’Brien. He can help clean up the issues in Watson’s mechanics. With wide receivers like DeAndre Hopkins and Will Fuller, they should be able to help create better separation with speed that he did not have in his Clemson receivers. Lamar Miller and rookie D’Onta Foreman provide an above-average running game with a team that has shown to be committed to the run in past seasons.

At quarterback, Watson will face competition from fellow QB Tom Savage in the near term. However, this is competition which shouldn’t be difficult to beat out. And then, there is his 2017 schedule. Per SharpFootballStats.com, the Texans will only face three games versus top ten defenses.

Threats

As with any rookie QB coming into the NFL, struggling to grasp offense should not be underestimated. Although the veteran Savage doesn’t have the talent or pedigree of Watson, he has had years of practice within O’Brien’s offense and could outperform expectations. And even in the event Watson beats out Savage, there is a possibility that Watson’s interception demons carryover into the NFL and force O’Brien’s hand to have Watson on a short leash. While Watson has many quality metrics and traits, his throw velocity of 49 mph has come under criticism as being well below the typical successful velocity of 55 mph.

Short-term Expectations

My short term expectations for Watson would be at best a top 20 QB season for 2017. We should consider a successful season if Watson can establish good chemistry with his wide receivers and show progression throughout the season. My target expectation for Watson would be about 3,400 yards passing with 20 touchdowns, which would be about QB20 overall. Below is the average line for a rookie QB in the past ten seasons, playing a minimum of 12 games played.

Long-term Expectations

My long term expectations for Watson would be a top 15 QB for 2018 and beyond. This would closely resemble Jameis Winston’s start to his career. Ultimately, Watson should develop by year four as a top ten QB and his mobility will provide a nice bump in fantasy production with an expected ~50-60 rush attempts each season.

NFL Comparisons

One of my favorite player comparisons would be Donovan McNabb. Per MockDraftable, Watson is a 95.3% match with McNabb’s measurables. Coming out of college, McNabb wasn’t considered a polished QB, but ultimately developed into an above average QB with fairly good production over his 13 year career. Both of these quarterbacks showed an ability to move outside the pocket and make plays in multiple ways.

Projected Range for a Rookie Draft

In DLF’s May ADP, Watson is the QB19, just after Eli Manning and just before Tyrod Taylor. In six mocks, Watson was selected as early as 153 overall, and as late as 189 overall. I would expect that as the off-season training camps progress, his ADP will move up as he secures the starting role.

In May 2QB dynasty mocks, Watson has an ADP of 90 overall going in the eighth round as QB20 off the board.

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