Positional Value in the Scott Fish Bowl
I’ve utterly loved joining DLF. Everyone’s been great, I’ve learned a ton and made some great friends. But maybe the best bit about it is securing my entry into the greatest and biggest fantasy league in the known universe, run by our very own Scott Fish. I’ve never played in it before, and it’s already great fun being part of it.
Naturally I’m a little nervous about not being shown up especially given the high calibre opponents in my division. That’s not that unusual, and Twitter has been ablaze with various theories and takes on the scoring system and what it means for strategy. My plight is slightly more urgent as Scott himself is actually in my division – so to do well, I’ve got to find an advantage against the very man who came up with the fiendish new scoring system.
Clearly that’s a tall order, so I’ve gone straight to the data. We’ve got two seasons of scoring against this year’s scoring so I immediately plotted them out by position. I’ll show you in this article how they look and where I think the advantage could be found.
Quarterbacks
This is the positional curve for 2015, 2016 and the averaged of both seasons:
[am4show have=’g1;’ guest_error=’sub_message’ user_error=’sub_message’ ]
As you can see, there have been a couple of tiers over the last two seasons. The top four or five quarterbacks have been elite performers. In a league full of sharks I expect people to wait on QBs, but these elite options are mouth-watering given the curve.
After that it levels out a bit from QB5-QB16. All these guys are roughly interchangeable when you factor in the error rate in our ability to predict.
So this is fairly clear (and normal). If you want to reach for a QB, you can secure a real positional advantage. But if not, any of the next tier should be perfectly acceptable.
Running backs
This is where leagues are going to be won this year. Here’s the data:
As you can see, this is a really steep curve. The top two or three backs are a huge advantage because they’re the only real workhorses who can be relied upon to rack up those sweet first downs. In real terms this means David Johnson, Ezekiel Elliott and Le’Veon Bell are going to go right at the top of drafts. If any other back can break into that elite tier, they could well prove league-winners for their owners.
After that, there’s a big drop-off through the better committee backs. The number four back is likely to score roughly twice as many points for the season as the number 20 back. Any after that are likely to be deadweight that holds you back.
Wide receivers
Here’s a chart that will confuse most dynasty players:
Wow. That is a super-flat drop-off. So many of us are so used to building our teams around receivers that this is just really hard to compute.
To look a little deeper, there are about six top receivers who will be elite options and after that it’s a mess. I don’t think there’s much opportunity to win in the #SFB7 with a top receiver – but there is a decent chance you could lose your league. I’ll be steering way clear of drafting one in the first round.
Tight ends
A tight end premium always tends to steepen the gradient and this is no exception:
As you can see there is a clear case of ‘haves’ and ‘have-nots’. If you don’t get a top-six option you’re going to be in trouble. So you can either go early if you’re very sure of your assessment, or you can punt the position and try to make up the points elsewhere.
Comparing positions
This is how the positions stack up comparatively:
Hopefully the points above are obvious and it seems clear to me where league-winning players are going to come from.
- The top three RBs are key here. They are so far above their peers they are going to offer a huge weekly advantage.
- The elite QBs are going to finish well clear of all other players. Someone like Aaron Rodgers will score 8-10 points more than Zeke or Bell every week.
- The top six receivers are competitive, but after that they’re going to be a relatively weak position in this league.
- Any TE out of the top six or so is going to hurt you. You’ll hate not having a good option there.
So what strategies are good ideas in this great league? For me it’s a simple couple of decisions.Â
In round one I’m probably taking a running back. Certainly if I’ve got a top three pick, I’d jump straight on one of the elite backs in a heartbeat. Even if I miss out on them the advantage of having a player reach that level is so high I’ll be tempted to take a chance on Todd Gurley, Melvin Gordon or Leonard Fournette. Once they’ve all gone, I’ll be looking at one of those elite quarterbacks to dominate week in and week out. Aaron Rodgers, Cam Newton, Andrew Luck, Russ Wilson are all going to be monsters given their ability to pick up first downs with their legs.
In round two I’m going after a QB if I don’t already have one, a RB if there hasn’t been a HUGE run or if I’m feeling very ballsy I might nab Gronk. If he’s fit again, he could well be a league-winning asset with his advantage over other tight ends.
After that I’m looking to pick up RB potential wherever possible. I’m resigned to losing out on top wideouts and therefore I’ll be playing zero-WR. That’s just the smart play given the slow gradient at the position. Possession receivers that drop due to lack of big-play potential are going to be really valuable here. Instead of thinking slot receivers will deliver with no PPR we’re looking at the ones that can box out defenders and make contested catches. Anquan Boldin I suspect will be fairly useful. So will Eric Decker and Jordan Matthews.
It’s worth recapping that I’ve never played in this league before, and I’ve certainly never played with these scoring settings. But I always think this sort of analysis helps those of us who are fairly visual-minded understand how a league is put together. Good luck to everyone playing in the league. As much as I love Scott for putting this together I’ll be trying as hard as possible to dump him out of his own party.
If you want to argue with my assessment you can find me at @TomDegenerate. Thanks for reading.Â
[/am4show]
- Ten IDP Fantasy Football Stats You Need to Know after Week 16 - December 29, 2023
- Ten IDP Fantasy Football Stats You Need to Know after Week 15 - December 22, 2023
- Ten IDP Fantasy Football Stats You Need to Know after Week 14 - December 14, 2023
