Tweet Storm: Undervalued and Overvalued Wide Receivers

Ryan McDowell Posted On June 10, 2017

Recently, I was studying the latest dynasty ADP looking for players I considered either overvalued or undervalued at the current startup price tag. While quite a few stood out in each category, I finally opted to do some crowd sourcing and ask my Twitter followers for their thoughts.

Next up, I focused on the wide receivers with this question.

Last one….here’s DLF’s May dynasty ADP (WRs)

Name an overvalued and undervalued dynasty WR pic.twitter.com/z2J5DhrnjO

— Ryan McDowell (@RyanMc23) May 28, 2017

Overvalued

Donte Moncrief, IND – 11 votes

It’s no surprise to see Colts receiver Moncrief top this list. After peaking with an ADP of 21 late in the 2016 regular season, dynasty owners are evidently growing tired of him failing to live up to the hype. His age and being paired with Andrew Luck as his quarterback has led to his inflated value and while the ADP is down to 40.8 as of May, that is still too steep for many dynasty players. To regain some value, Moncrief simply needs to be a larger part of the Colts offense on a consistent basis all over the field, not just in the red zone.

Michael Thomas, NO – 11 votes

Since his surprising rookie season breakout, Thomas has been quickly rising up the ADP charts and that was exaggerated once the Saints dealt Brandin Cooks to New England. Thomas is currently the WR7 based on May’s ADP and the tenth player drafted overall. Based on the results of this survey, this rise has been too much, too soon. It makes sense that Thomas would be a hot name in dynasty circles after he finished as the WR7 last season, but it’s not wise to expect a great deal of increased volume in his second season. There have only been four occasions in Drew Brees’ tenure with the team in which a wide receiver has earned more than the 121 targets Thomas drew as a rookie. Thomas could hit the 140 targets mark potentially, but he’s unlikely to challenge for the league-lead considering the way the Saints spread the ball around.

Sammy Watkins, BUF – 8 votes

It wasn’t long ago that the Bills young star Watkins was viewed as a potential dynasty superstar, and he could still be if he can manage to stay on the field. Despite missing eleven games over the past two season, Watkins remains the WR13 in our May dynasty ADP, being drafted eighteenth overall. The other concern about investing such a high draft pick for Watkins is the Bills offense, which ranked 30th in 2016 with just over 3,000 total passing yards. The Buffalo wide receiver corps was already in bad shape and may have gotten worse this off-season with the loss of veteran Robert Woods, even with the addition of second-rounder Zay Jones, so Watkins should see plenty of defensive attention on a weekly basis.

Corey Davis, TEN – 7 votes

As previously mentioned in this series, there are many dynasty owners who simply always think rookies are overvalued early in their career. You don’t have to look long before finding an argument based around “he’s never even taken an NFL snap before.” Maybe that is the reason Davis made this list. He’s currently being drafted as the WR15 according to our May data, the first rookie receiver off the board and ahead of established players like Jarvis Landry and Alshon Jeffery. The good news is Davis already looks like the number one receiver on a young, up and coming offense and will be paired with one of the top young quarterbacks in the game, Marcus Mariota. The bad news is the Titans are likely to continue to be a run first offense, at least until the wheels fall off for DeMarco Murray. Davis will have a hard time living up to his lofty ADP in 2017, but there is a path for him to become a top ten fantasy receiver and those are invaluable.

Others Receiving Votes:

Brandin Cooks (6), Mike Williams (6), Keenan Allen (6), Kelvin Benjamin (6), Stefon Diggs (5), Tyreek Hill (5), Alshon Jeffery (4), Amari Cooper (4), Jarvis Landry (4), Corey Coleman (3), Dez Bryant (3), Mike Evans (3), Davante Adams (2), DeAndre Hopkins (2), Allen Robinson (2), Kevin White (2), Sterling Shepard (1), DeVante Parker (1), Jamison Crowder (1), Jordy Nelson (1), Josh Doctson (1), Randall Cobb (1), TY Hilton (1)

Undervalued

Doug Baldwin, SEA – 20 votes

The May ADP for Seahawks veteran Baldwin represented an all-time high for the former undrafted free agent, but that is not enough for dynasty owners, who still consider him undervalued. After back-to-back WR1 seasons, Baldwin is finally earning some respect from fantasy owners, but he still sits at WR18 behind unproven players like Davis and others dealing with seemingly constant injuries, such as Watkins and Keenan Allen.

Willie Snead, NO – 18 votes

While his teammate Thomas has evidently benefitted from the departure of Cooks, Snead’s value and ADP has remained very reasonable. In fact, his ADP has actually dropped from the early part of the 2016 regular season. While I expect Thomas’ opportunity and production to remain in the same range, it is Snead who should see a nice bump from his 100 targets of last season. He was obviously very close to Baldwin as being the most undervalued receiver and unlike the Seahawks star, is still very young at just 24 years of age.

Golden Tate, DET – 7 votes

In 2016, Tate rebounded from a slow start to finish the season as the WR17. In fact, from week Six through the end of the season, he was the WR7, averaging over 17 fantasy points per game. On an annual basis, the Lions can be counted on to produce a high volume of passes Tate is clearly the go to option for Matthew Stafford. This all bodes well for another strong season out of the former Seahawks receiver, yet he’s only being drafted as the WR30 in May ADP, behind players like Kelvin Benjamin, among others. Even after a strong performance last season, Tate has lost value, based on our ADP data, falling slightly from his May 2016 ADP of 54.8.

Emmanuel Sanders, DEN – 6 votes

There are a few reasons to be concerned about Sanders in the long-term, as well as the 2017 season, which is probably why he landed at WR36 in May ADP with an overall number of 65. The Broncos steady pass-catcher can be viewed no higher than the second option on the team behind fellow veteran Demaryius Thomas and both players are now dealing with a questionable quarterback situation and have crossed the dreaded age thirty threshold. This doesn’t mean they won’t be fantasy producers, but it does mean they’ll be devalued and undervalued by dynasty players, as is evidenced by their downward ADP trend over the past 16 months.

Others Receiving Votes:

Stefon Diggs (5), Demaryius Thomas (5), Martavis Bryant (5), Alshon Jeffery (4), Sterling Shepard (4), Breshad Perriman (4), Michael Crabtree (4), Terrelle Pryor (4), DeVante Parker (3), Jamison Crowder (3), Jordy Nelson (3), Amari Cooper (2), Corey Coleman (2), Josh Doctson (2), Sammy Watkins (1), Brandin Cooks (1), Mike Williams (1), Tyreek Hill (1), Davante Adams (1), DeAndre Hopkins (1), Randall Cobb (1), Pierre Garcon (1), Cameron Meredith (1)

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Ryan McDowell

Contributor at Dynasty League Football

In addition to his senior leadership role here at DLF, Ryan is also a husband, father of three and PE teacher. Ryan is the commissioner of multiple dynasty leagues, most notably the Kitchen Sink Dynasty Leagues. Here at DLF, Ryan’s focus is on identifying, monitoring and analyzing player value.